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So given the Fed 30% solar subsidy is set to expire at the end of 2016, have you modeled (or know of a model) that shows when the price of solar will crossover the loss of subsidy?

I.e. I'm trying to figure out if going solar now is better (in California) or just waiting a few more years. I'm in no particular hurry since my electric bill vs. sq/ft is already pretty good.

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It appears that all his calculations in the article are done without subsidies factored in.

UBS has done some modeling on this for their clients. They believe utility-based solar will take a hit for a 2-3 years and then rebound. The Fed ITC will drop from 30% to 10%. Making up that 20% cost change will take a little over one doubling of solar scale.

Rooftop solar will probably also take 2-3 years to make up for the cost lost to the subsidy reduction. It may even be 4. So after 2016, I'd expect rooftop prices to rise before slowly dropping, and getting back to 2016 levels around 2019 or 2020.

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