The valuation for Uber has got to be based on #2. Specifically that you can drive down wage costs by having a fleet of self driving cars. And that the current app/business model is just to get the app installed onto as many phones as possible.
You mean like how all the horse and buggy companies became highly successful car manufacturers? I can see the Uber logic - we will sell buggies now since we don’t have the technology to make cars and when the technology eventually arrives we will be able sell cars because we have such a great buggy customer network.
Self driving cars aren't coming tomorrow. They are years away. Maybe a decade. How long can uber coast on VC money before that happens? And then how do they guarantee dominance in the self-driving taxi market? Basing their value solely on this shoot-the-moon project is problematic.