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wintersFright

324 karma · joined September 3, 2010

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wintersFright··on Mt. Gox Files for Bankruptcy Protection
what happens to the BTC in their wallets that they didn't lose? Liquidated to pay creditors 1c in the dollar?

with 63 million in debt, I imagine customers aren't first class debt holders either?

wintersFright··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
how many coffees did your gram buy you in 1850 when these coins were minted?
wintersFright··on Mono 3.2.7 is out
Miguel tweeted this a week ago:

NoWin, Nancy, SignalR & Lego on the raspberry pi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_ZQtiupyzE

wintersFright··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
"currency, which doesn't change over time"

eh? currency then or now? Currency then was on the gold standard so the two didn't fluctuate. Currency today, they target inflation of 2% / year by design.

re: insane price of collectibles

You are thinking like a salaryman. Think of one of great wealth with a flow of currency more than what one can sensibly spend money on - the market for these coins. The pleasure gained from owning the 20th rolls is not the same as the first. The utility gained less so. How about a rare collection of gold coins from 1850? Now that is something you can talk about over some cognac and cigars with a like minded fellow. An object of beauty, desire and a fantastic store of value for when you want to transport value across to the next generation. Alternatively, you could park $10 million into a hedge fund and swap spreadsheets around the fireside chat - debating which manager was best defending the onslaught of the fed and its money printing? Which one is less - shall we say - vulgar?

wintersFright··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
wrong (ok it wasn't immediate, 8 months later they repriced it)

Executive Order 6102 required all persons to deliver on or before May 1, 1933, all but a small amount of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates owned by them to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for $20.67 (equivalent to $372.75 today[3]) per troy ounce.

The United States Gold Reserve Act of January 30, 1934 required that all gold and gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve be surrendered and vested in the sole title of the United States Department of the Treasury.[1][2]

The Gold Reserve Act outlawed most private possession of gold, forcing individuals to sell it to the Treasury, after which it was stored in United States Bullion Depository at Fort Knox and other locations. The act also changed the nominal price of gold from $20.67 per troy ounce to $35.

wintersFright··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
They immediately revalued the price of gold afterward so I'm sure it was seen as theft by the govt.
wintersFright··on Tin cans filled with $10M in gold coins found buried in California
Is the mono lisa only worth $2.50 for the price of canvas, paint and wood frame? Old paint at that!

The price of a collectable is because someone else (not necessarily you) values it. And the odds are that many other wealthy collectors would value it at the same price, allowing the buyer to hold it and then trade it later for similar value.

wintersFright··on CNN website hacked: "China dumps all bonds"
and this http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/China-expected-to-anno...
wintersFright··on CNN website hacked: "China dumps all bonds"
The world was fooled once by promises of US gold which Nixon defaulted on. They won't fall for that one again.
wintersFright··on CNN website hacked: "China dumps all bonds"
Yes, the Fed will quickly buy up all the bonds necessary to feed the USGovt appetite, allowing the USGovt to outbid any citizen for goods and services. This situation does not lead to a nice and cool inflation of 2%.

Meanwhile will the rest of the world be willing to ship real goods and services in return for promises of ever more paper IOUs from the USG, and when those paper IOUs are due, the promise of even more paper IOUs?

If this all sounds sustainable, I have a deal for you. I want to borrow $100 off you and I'll pay you $105 next year. Don't worry, I'm good for it. I'm also lending myself $200 and will pay myself back $210 next year. So how about it? Clearly the 5% interest rate is what has been set by the market (me) so you are getting a good deal.

Next year comes around and I hand you some paper IOUs for $110 the next year. Meanwhile, I'll borrow another $100 off you. I've been living it large and need a bit more sugar. Don't worry, I'm good for it - I'll lend myself another $200 too!

wintersFright··on CNN website hacked: "China dumps all bonds"
If China dumped bonds, why would anyone buy debt from the USG when they can get it cheap on the open market that has just had 1 trillion dumped in it. The fed steps in, mops up all excess demand so Uncle Sam can keep on spending beyond its tax revenue. Very quickly, no one is going to accept USD in trade as the value plummets.

The USD being world reserve currency has been printed far beyond the needs for internal domestic trade. The US had to do this to lubricate world trade, however when the music stops all those dollars held in foreign banks will try and make their way home in order to obtain some value. A flood of dollars will then start bidding for goods and services from the US economy. Instant hyperinflation.

The US haven't defaulted on their debt because the roll over their debt with more USD.

wintersFright··on CNN website hacked: "China dumps all bonds"
umm, no. It would be the end of the USD as you know it, instant hyperinflation and empty shelves in your local supermarket. The point of dumping bonds is that they are saying they are worthless, they aren't trying to extract value from them by spending them somewhere else. That would render other Central Bank dollar denominated reserve assets worthless too. World trade, denominated in USD, would freeze, along with any American's relying on imported oil to warm their houses through the polar vortex.

So no, it wouldn't be business as usual...if this were a real story.

wintersFright··on Bit gold (2005)
Money/labour input does not equal value. I could spend 10 years pulling all the grass from my backyard and sorting it from longest to shortest in length. A lot of effort went into it. Doesn't make it valuable.

Paper money is backed by the willingness of other people to price their goods and services in it. If people stop pricing their goods and services in it then it is no longer money. eg: a Zimbabwe dollar is no longer money. No one will exchange anything for it except for a novelty value.

Generally vendors exchange those paper monies for goods and services due to the requirement to pay taxes in fiat dollars. Vendors aren't required to sell for dollars, they can sell for whatever medium of exchange they want. It's just convenient to do so due to the tax reason. That reason alone can't save a currency though. eg: $Zim.

wintersFright··on Bit gold (2005)
it seems unlikely that it was an unknown guy who threw out a workable solution on his first attempt. If it wasn't his first attempt, he must have left an internet footprint somewhere with prior ramblings.

Much like DPR and silkroad.

wintersFright··on US seizes 'largest ever' Bitcoin haul from man linked to Silk Road website
what will this do to the BTC market when the feds liquidate their haul? Is it big enough to swallow a $29 million sell order?
wintersFright··on Skull of Homo erectus throws story of human evolution into disarray
Agree, the title is link bait for creationists
wintersFright··on A public TrueCrypt Audit
I've been half expecting for truecrypt to be revealed as an NSA funded honeypot. I still use it myself to secure against petty criminals.
wintersFright··on Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness (1932)
Keep in mind this was 1932 when there was the gold standard. Inflation was more volatile then and was -10% (minus!) according to http://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-i...
wintersFright··on A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall
Gold doesn't need to move, only the name under which it is stored needs to change. Bitcoin - a four year old currency invented by a pseudonym - is not going to be used to clear trades at a sovereign level. Arabs are not going to ship oil in the ground for bitcoin.
wintersFright··on A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall
Decide what you think would replace assets in Central Bank balance sheets to allow world trade to continue - ie: what would settle world trade deficits.

Yuan, gold, silver or bitcoin?

Hint: Bitcoin and silver are not held by central banks as assets. Yuan's value is subject to the policy of China's politburo. Fool me once on the USD...

That leaves one asset that can't be printed into existence: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/wfs/2013/html/fs130924.en....

wintersFright··on A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall
The US can't default on their promise to pay or there is a very high risk it will be lights out for them for world reserve which will be instant hyperinflation.

As world reserve they have had to spend into existence a metric craptonne more currency than their economy requires in order to lubricate world trade (google Triffins dilemma).

ie: For Turkey (say) to buy oil off Saudi, they need to sell something to the US in order to obtain USD first. When world reserve status is lost, suddenly Turkey doesn't need USD in order to acquire oil. The rest of the world is holding USD for trading purposes and those USD currently never go home in order to claim something from the US economy.

Now lets turn the lights off on USD as world reserve: Those now useless trade dollars will try and find their way home to the US and start chasing things milk, eggs, cars...anything in the real world that has value as the currency devalues. Meanwhile, the USGovt is having trouble acquiring its goods and services with its rapidly inflating USD and doubles down on printing under Executive Order 13603.

When this one blows, one doesn't want to be caught holding assets denominated in USD.

wintersFright··on Richmond’s rules: Why one California town is keeping Wall Street up at night
If no one can get a mortgage there then house prices go to their cash only value, so one wouldn't need a mortgage to buy. So the good luck should go to anyone wishing to sell a house there
wintersFright··on Federal Government Begins First Shutdown In 17 Years
[not my quote...but relevant]

In essence, America has told the world that as long as the business of this country is functioning, your wealth, as represented in Marks, Yen, Pesos, etc. is backed with performing US debt. It's like saying, "as long as your neighbor, next door, does not loses his job, you will not lose all your money!

wintersFright··on McCutcheon: Unlimited Bribery
This is the backstory http://www.businessinsider.com.au/whats-at-stake-in-mccutche...

The U.S. Supreme Court is going to hear a campaign finance case that could do away with the contribution limits that limit rich people’s influence over politics.Currently, federal law only lets individuals give $2,600 to any one candidate during a single election.

On top of that limit, people can only give $123,000 to candidates, political action committees, and parties over a two-year period.

<continues>

wintersFright··on Google Hangouts/GTalk glitch sends chats to wrong recipients
Someone's continuous deployment process is about to get mirred in bureaucracy and paperwork
wintersFright··on Can I Make a Living Off Bitcoin Mining? Probably Not
The finale if anyone missed it http://reckoner.com.au/2013/08/im-done-mining-litecoin/
wintersFright··on Can I Make a Living Off Bitcoin Mining? Probably Not
OK, so with passing time, coins are worth more than before because the usage demand is increasing faster than the mining supply. I'm not sure if that is your argument though?
wintersFright··on Can I Make a Living Off Bitcoin Mining? Probably Not
Is it deflationary because of the 21 million limit? That limit won't hit until 2140. Or is it deflationary because the projected velocity will go up faster than the mining output?
wintersFright··on Empty F-16 jet tested by Boeing and US Air Force
This is worth a watch http://www.ted.com/talks/daniel_suarez_the_kill_decision_sho...
wintersFright··on Show HN: Send Secret Messages over Twitter as Public Tweets
Aren't go just publishing the otp and not the message? Or did I miss something?
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