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wgerard

2,298 karma · joined March 16, 2015

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wgerard··on Lone Bitcoin Whale Likely Fueled 2017 Price Surge, Study Says
Uh I mean, not that I'm a cryptocurrency enthusiast by any means, but wouldn't prudent estate planning include a prepared will or some sort of next-of-kin document that includes a mechanism for access to your accounts/passwords/passphrases?
wgerard··on Gaggle monitors the work and communications of almost 5M students in the US
Ehh, I'm not so sure this analogy really holds.

1) That would make the previous 3rd generation before this current iteration (one cycle ago) the generation that experienced WW1 - they'd hardly be ignorant of the horrors of world war.

2) Boomers (your 2nd generation) went through Vietnam and the cold war, so I'm not sure they often felt like the UN was safeguarding them from, well, anything.

3) Boomers also seem to be indifferent and apathetic about climate change, so I'm not sure how that really fits into the narrative.

The most likely answer is that most people just feel indifferent about things that feel out of their control. Boomers likely didn't spend every waking minute about how close they were at several points to being ended by thermonuclear war.

Hell, even for the greatest generation (well, except for Murrow obviously) let McCarthy run rampant right after WW2 until he tried to go after the army.

wgerard··on Amazon will stop sales of used first-party Nintendo products starting November 1
I mean, just because it's legal to resell nintendo products doesn't mean Amazon is required to offer a marketplace for them.

First-sale just means that the sellers don't need permission from nintendo to sell the items everywhere.

wgerard··on Amazon will stop sales of used first-party Nintendo products starting November 1
> This decision seems to imply that either Nintendo or Amazon would rather limit all used sales of Nintendo products than build a more focused list of scrutinized software and products.

Seems like probably both, no?

> Users on the used-Nintendo forum thread have postulated that counterfeit retro Nintendo cartridges have been an open secret among Amazon sellers for some time.

I'm guessing Nintendo isn't too happy about this (in general they seem very concerned about their brand) and Amazon is likely happy to stem some of the negative backlash about counterfeit goods on their platform.

I'm not surprised to see that Apple products are likely to fall under this umbrella - another company very concerned about their brand.

wgerard··on Goodbye, Flash
There's quite a few flash games/etc. that will be lost to the ages.

Quite interesting if you think about it! A bit of an antithesis to the idea that what's on the web is preserved forever.

wgerard··on Leaving Prison at 72
> Largely because the opioid crisis has started to impact a lot of middle class households, which has helped to humanize the problems with drug addiction.

Interesting take! I've always thought it's because of the change in viewpoints towards marijuana (and to a lesser extent, psychedelics).

Attitudes towards recreational marijuana use are far more liberal than they used to be. As it became more socially acceptable it caused much of America to re-examine attitudes towards penalizing drug usage in general, if only because it felt draconian to imprison someone from their milieu for smoking their illegal drug of choice (marijuana).

wgerard··on Stripe to move to South San Francisco
> I mean this in as polite a way as possible, but why wouldn't established companies like Stripe just fuck off to another city entirely?

To be totally blunt, I also suspect a large part of it is that the founders would like to be in the bay area.

I don't mean that as a slight either - I think if you're spending a good portion of your life on something, you might as well do it in a place you enjoy spending time in!

wgerard··on TechCrunch published Snap earnings before numbers went public
> Yes, the SEC definitely follows up on this

Yes, and they're quite adept at it even if you don't think you're leaving a trace. For example: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2014-55

wgerard··on When Introverts Act Like Extraverts (and Vice Versa)
> I just need time to recharge by myself afterwards

Yes!

The way I've started explaining this to people is it's like going to the gym: I like going to the gym. I make sure to go to the gym regularly. But I can't spend all day at the gym, and if I spend many hours at the gym I'm going to be very sore and tired and need a day or two off.

wgerard··on Amazon’s Consumer Business Turned Off Final Oracle Database
> Postgres is fantastic at many things but there are times when it's not the best choice.

To be fair, that would be the 5% :).

wgerard··on Dallas school district starts video game teams on 64 campuses
This is a really interesting phenomenon we noticed as started doing some research into esports: There's a ton of interest in organized game teams as perhaps an alternative to traditional sports for students with different proclivities.

This is just one example, but I suppose what I'm trying to say is that this will likely become the norm not the exception.

wgerard··on SpaCy v2.2
Awesome news! Really excited to try out the new CLI features for training.
wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
k ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
> There's no way for me to win an argument like this

The way for you to win would be to counter my argument: Show the amount of money/time/etc. that went into resolving the AIDS crisis was minimal (and of course, you'll have to argue what minimal means). I can easily find resources to the contrary [0] [1].

> However, maybe you'll pay attention to all the dire predictions in the next ten years, and maybe ten years after that you'll notice that the world just keeps getting better despite all the people claiming it's worse and will end soon.

It keeps getting better because people keep devoting time, energy, and money into resolving these problems. "The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance" and all that. We've seen what happens when people stop being vigilant: Things like the return of measles in the US.

I'm mostly shocked to hear this sentiment on HN of all places; IT is notorious for encountering "the servers run fine and never go down, what do we pay you for?" attitudes. Surprised you don't understand how it applies to other areas of life.

0: http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/first-long-term-study... 1: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-11/18/077r-...

wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
> An excellent question to pose to those left-of-center

This is literally what the OP was about.

wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
Uh, he's not wrong. You have to jump through some serious mental hoops to avoid classifying the current American right as Populist. They clearly have no qualms about using government to control social norms (e.g. abortion, marriage). There's not much anti-authoritarian about that.

If you don't understand the other side, or worse mischaracterize them, how can you possibly hope to bridge the divide?

wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
Most of those "doom and gloom" predictions never came true because of tireless work by people to prevent it from happening. For example, the amount of effort that went into making AIDS more treatable is astronomical.

See also: Ozone holes, Y2K, etc.

wgerard··on 51% of young voters believe humanity could be wiped out within 15 years
> How do you exterminate 7 billion people spread over ~57 million square miles of land?

I mean, just make the earth uninhabitable for humans. There are a few ways to accomplish this; even excluding climate change, nuclear weapons were and continue to be one such specter as the article alludes to.

Sure, some people will continue to eke out an existence even then, but it's quite easy to imagine humanity perishing over the course of a few generations after an event like that.

Also, when people say things like "humanity being wiped out" they usually don't literally mean "extinction of homo sapiens". They usually mean "quality of life significantly degraded" such that life resembles a Mad Max movie more than what we know today.

wgerard··on WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO
> Eventually, in order for the private investors to make money, they either need to get profitable or go public.

Most (but not all, obviously) unicorns could easily be profitable if they chose to be. It would come at the expense of growth and R&D, but they would be profitable nonetheless. Growth is just valued much more heavily in the current market.

If you look at S-1s or even recent public unicorn earning statements, most of their losses stem from outsized increases in R&D/etc. expenditures despite healthily increasing revenues. The most recent example I can think of off the top of my head is Dropbox.

wgerard··on CA Governor Signs Bill Allowing College Athletes to Profit from Endorsements
> There's not one example of a regional sports league that has had any sort of success in recent memory.

Er, we're talking about them right now. College sports are extremely regional but still have significant national appeal. Many, many people tune into SEC conference games who have no connection to the SEC.

If you think people wouldn't watch an SEC-only league (I'm using the SEC here because it's the most obvious example), then I think that betrays your knowledge of college sports.

wgerard··on CA Governor Signs Bill Allowing College Athletes to Profit from Endorsements
> There's not going to be much national demand for a state-only organization

Uh, this would be true of many states but not of states like CA/TX/FL.

There would absolutely be demand for a CA-only athletic organization.

There's a reason California did this and not, say, Alaska (no offense to Alaska of course).

wgerard··on WeWork says will file to withdraw IPO
I see lots of cheering which, to some degree, I understand given the public persona of Adam Neumann.

I'm more interested in the ramifications, and I don't just mean the obvious ones like "potential tech recession" (maybe, who knows) or "more due diligence" (unlikely, or if so likely to swing completely the other direction).

Given that "private markets are the new public markets" I wonder if this will just encourage more companies to stay private either indefinitely (e.g. MailChimp though obviously I realize they are an exception) or for a period far beyond the norm (AirBnB) to wait for a more favorable time to IPO. Maybe we'll see companies switch to RSUs instead of ISOs as this becomes more common.

wgerard··on Why Blameless Post-Mortems
My $0.02:

Despite being a strong believer in it, I've worked at places that did blameless post-mortems and it was sometimes frustrating because remediation often felt like a second-class citizen. Remediation is often much more difficult in these environments because systematic changes can obviously much more complex than "fixing" an individual's behavior.

If someone pushes the big red button accidentally I'm fully on-board with the "well what led them to push it and why were there no safeguards?" but it also kinda sucks if you spend so much time on that conversation that there's no time left for "ok, who's going install the confirmation screen for the big red button?"

Sometimes the "remediation" was even just "well, that's just the way it is and we can't do anything about it easily, but hopefully the post-mortem itself will serve as a way to inform people not to push the big red button" which is obviously frustrating because memories are short and people come and go quite frequently in the tech industry.

Anyway, and this might be obvious to some, but remediation is important and sometimes incredibly difficult in these environments. Adopting such an environment requires a commitment to actually fixing the systemic issues. It can sometimes feel more frustrating than "blameworthy" post-mortems especially if it's the same individual(s) over and over again.

wgerard··on India bans e-cigarettes, citing youth health concerns
Sure, but clearly there's black market production for the latter. I guess I don't see why you think it's difficult for black market production to spring up for the former.

By that I mean: I don't think the e-cigarettes themselves are wildly more complicated to produce than the cartridges--though I might be wrong on that.

wgerard··on India bans e-cigarettes, citing youth health concerns
> Unlike with cigarettes, black market production of e-cigarettes sounds unlikely.

Wait, isn't that exactly the problem that's lead to what's happened here? Unregulated THC cartridges causing health issues in states where marijuana is still illegal?

wgerard··on MoviePass will shut down for good on Sept. 14
Just as a caveat, I have 0 affiliation with Dropbox (I don't think I even know anyone who works there).

> Are they profitable?

Profitability isn't the end-all metric for a company. Amazon famously circles around the profitable/not-profitable line frequently and few people have doubts about Amazon's viability as a company.

Dropbox reported ~20% growth in revenue YoY and seems to have dumped most of that into R&D (you can see their R&D costs have grown by nearly as much as their revenue has). Other operating expenses remain mostly the same.

> There is no better evidence that Dropbox is just a feature than for the same price that Dropbox charges for 1Tb of storage, you can get the full Microsoft Office Suite for up to six users and a total of 6TB of storage.

Ok, but a growing subset of people clearly choose Dropbox. There are huge advantages to being a first mover that are sometimes insurmountable, even for gigantic companies. The zune was in many ways "superior" to the iPod, but we all know how that story ended.

wgerard··on A man who destroyed his multimillion dollar company in 10 seconds (2018)
> You believe Lewinsky was a victim of what, exactly?

Being pressured into a sexual relationship by her superior, who was by many standards the most powerful person on the planet at the time?

Like, regardless of whether you believe that's true or not it's pretty obvious how people might arrive at the conclusion that she was a victim and why there's debate about it.

wgerard··on SEC Freezes $8M in Assets in Alleged Fraudulent Token Offering Scheme
I'm not arguing for a blockchain solution here, fwiw.

Just pointing out that people under the age of majority are, in fact, restricted from trading securities (for obvious reasons).

wgerard··on SEC Freezes $8M in Assets in Alleged Fraudulent Token Offering Scheme
while true, most brokerages have age limits on executing transactions (which effectively results in the same thing)
wgerard··on SEC Freezes $8M in Assets in Alleged Fraudulent Token Offering Scheme
most brokerages i think wouldn't touch underage trading with a 10-foot pole, for obvious reasons.
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