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volkl48

1,541 karma · joined June 29, 2017

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volkl48··on MacBook Air M1 screen crack for no apparent reason
The tight closure with just about zero clearance and no bezel is a significant part of the difficulty.

Anything in there, even being closed gently and you notice at the first sign of resistance and correct it - has probably cracked the screen.

Charger/cable/pen tip is common, but even a paper clip could be enough. There's no audible crack and you think nothing of it until the next time you take it out of your bag and the display is broken. That said, this sort of thing will typically have a point of impact/multiple cracks, not just one straight line.

Plastic webcam covers will also do this, just less consistently - they hold the display open a bit and concentrate all the force of the closed lid there.

volkl48··on MacBook Air M1 screen crack for no apparent reason
The magic term is this: "single hairline crack".

If there is one continuous crack with no point of impact or other obvious damage, it will generally be covered under warranty (assuming you are under warranty) and not considered accidental damage. That was policy in the past and I doubt it's changed.

If there is more than one, in any way - not covered unless someone's being nice to you.

volkl48··on MacBook Air M1 screen crack for no apparent reason
....kind of. It's got a deductible for accidental damage, and the deductible can be fairly significant.

You're going to be out an additional $99 if you only damaged the display or only damaged the top case. But if you had a liquid spill or significant drop, you're likely going to be out the $299 (for damaging both, or for damaging the logic board/anything else internal at all).

It's a decent deal if you've got a high end machine, but it doesn't as much sense IMO if you bought something like an Air or a Base 13".

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In contrast, ~$160 on a $1.5k Dell Latitude will get 3 years of warranty + accidental damage coverage with no deductible.

volkl48··on Overrun by influencers, historic sites are banning TikTok creators in Nepal
I tape (audio) fairly openly at a lot of shows, most venues (or at least those who work for the venues) don't appear to care these days as long as it's not taking up space/getting in the way.

And a lot of artists are also pretty tolerant at this point of it. For example, The guy who runs the excellent (unofficial) live archive for NIN, got an invite to meet the band rather than a cease & desist.

(Edited for wording).

volkl48··on US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor design
We're actively building new nuclear weapons anyway, I don't see how reprocessing changes any of that calculation?
volkl48··on How an engineer looks at the idea of pumping water from Mississippi to the West
Not at all. Most of CA's agriculture is distributed nationally (or internationally), not growing staple foods for local consumption.
volkl48··on General Motors Streetcar Conspiracy
Streetcars in the modern "done right" sense - with a dedicated right of way, signal priority, and other similar treatments for efficiency can be great for local getting around.

Streetcars in the sense of what they were at the time - Stuck in ever increasing traffic with everything else and less able to navigate around issues than a bus, boarding in traffic in the middle of the street, sitting at all the lights - are not.

volkl48··on New numbers on music consumption
I don't feel like 18 months and not currently on the Billboard charts is a particularly reasonable cutoff for "new vs old" music.

I listen to tons of new music - current, young artists, who've released all or nearly all of their music the past 5-10 years, that's most of my listening.

In spite of that, I expect that 70%+ of my listening is over this arbitrary cutoff and would count as "catalog" . Even if I find a new band opening at a show - probably they've been around a couple years and if I dive into them the majority of their music is >18 months.

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The other aspect is I'd like to see age demographic data for the music stats. Older people have largely only gotten into Spotify and the like more recently. Are young people listening to less new music, or is this just a reflection of now having a wider age range in streaming stats?

volkl48··on Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?
In the event of a full nuclear war, whoever is on board the sub has probably just had their family, friends, and home vaporized.

Further, they are trapped in a small metal tube with 100 other people in similar condition, and who will probably be....not pleased if any sabotage is discovered.

I suspect it would be very hard to successfully bribe said crew members. (And have them actually follow through with their end of the deal, rather than just taking the money and...not doing it if the war ever happened)

volkl48··on Inflation rose 9.1% in June, even more than expected
Short-term at least, the US is relatively limited on LNG export capacity (and the facility that had an equipment failure basically cancels out the projected increases for this year until it's fixed). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50598

AFAIK there's not exactly an abundance of idle ships to transport LNG either.

volkl48··on Notice of termination of Twitter merger agreement
It really doesn't here IMO. They can both afford top-tier legal teams.

Delaware courts are known for dealing with these sorts of cases rapidly - there isn't likely to be any opportunity for dragging it out for years.

volkl48··on Symphonic Metal Bands: Nerdiness vs. Kickassery – A Statistical Analysis
Saw them live a few months ago - fantastic performance.

Also, for anyone who is checking them out I'd generally recommend starting with the Apex/Abyss albums - their earlier stuff (like Time Stands Still) is absolutely worth listening to, but their most recent work is a big step up.

volkl48··on Long-term benzodiazepine use causes synapse loss and cognitive deficits in mice
The job of psychiatrists in the US is in large part diagnosis and prescriptions, at least when it comes to the more routine mental health conditions.

If therapy is part of the treatment plan, they're often referred down to a psychologist or therapist for that part of things. A psychiatrist can do therapy....but their hourly rate is a whole lot higher.

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As to personal experience, my current psych (ADHD), requires a ~15min "medication management" session about 4x a year. It's not exactly a ton of oversight.

The couple previous psychiatrists I've had when I lived in other places were about the same way once we got past the initial phase.

It is worth noting that my prescription (+ it's effectiveness) has been generally steady for a long time and I don't exactly have a profile in terms of age/dosage/history that suggests abuse risk.

volkl48··on Finland will seek NATO membership immediately
They've claimed to be doing those heavy changes for the last ten years and this is what they have to show for it.

Being cut off from nearly all advanced technology and with a terrible economy doesn't sound like a recipe for improving much in that sense either.

volkl48··on A common sunscreen ingredient turns toxic in the sea – anemones suggest why
Hero Cosmetics's line has worked pretty well for me (for a face sunscreen). Zinc oxide only, doesn't make me (a white guy) look ghostly.
volkl48··on So You Wanna Be a Chef (2010)
I do most of my drinking in high cost environments (NYC + Boston) and that still seems way too high of an estimate.

$12+ for a beer is typically the high end of craft beer, not Bud Light.

volkl48··on “It Is Getting Worse. People Are Leaving”
The most concrete thing I read in the article seems to be:

"These trains exceed the coupler and drawbar limits of the very cars themselves."

This seems like something that can be explicitly proven true or false, so I would be interested to see whether that claim is true on investigation.

volkl48··on Effects of fexofenadine, diphenhydramine, and alcohol on driving performance
60mg is the dosage sold for "12hr". 180mg is the "24hr" dosage.
volkl48··on Apple’s Self Service Repair now available
That'll probably expand over time.

I would imagine they don't know what demand for this will be like, and parts for older devices are probably not in production at this point - so they probably don't have inventory to support a lot more than what they expected to service through their traditional processes.

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While not self-service, I'll note they've expanded service lifespans on the Mac side for repair in recent years. They'd previously guaranteed service would be available for 5 years (from end of new production of the model - which could be a while later than you purchased yours. The mid-2012 13" MBP is still less than 5 years from end of production.), but it was a hard cutoff after that. 5 years and 1 month? Nothing.

Now it's up to 7 years if the parts are available (10 years for batteries on some models), and anecdotally we've had a few repaired in that age range without issue.

That direction suggests to me that in the long run you're likely to see similar things on their "self-service repair" side.

volkl48··on World military expenditure passes $2T for first time
1. There's no ban on the Russian language.

2. Yes? Maybe Russia shouldn't have been engaged in heavy-handed meddling in the country before that and the population wouldn't be pissed off at them and want the military base to go away.

3. Most indications are that Ukraine also reigned it in significantly.

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> and accepting billions in military aid from USA (yes, USA was pumping a ton of weapons in Ukraine BEFORE the war, USA itself said so!)

The war has been ongoing since 2014, with Russia arming the other side in the occupied areas.

Again, if Russia didn't want Ukraine to be desperately trying to leap into bed with the West....it shouldn't have invaded it in 2014 and should have respected it's sovereignty. Quite frankly, they probably could have kept it neutral or pulled it back in orbit in the long run with disinformation campaigns like have worked elsewhere.

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Beyond that, in your last paragraph, I think you are vastly, vastly, overstating the capacity of the Russian military.

Which many did before the war - people believed Russia's claims of reforming and rearming their military, but is clearly off the mark now.

Russia has committed pretty much the entirety of it's active ground forces to the campaign beyond the bare minimum to not leave the rest of the country totally undefended. It is watching massive quantities of it's men and equipment being destroyed, including many of it's best units and equipment.

Much of what Russia is losing right now in every area of equipment is likely irreplaceable given the impact of sanctions and their inability to produce crucial parts in country.

The premise that Russia is somehow "holding back" as some master strategy to look like complete idiots on the world stage and watch all their stuff get blown up first, is absurd.

If they had larger stocks of intermediate-range missiles, they'd be using them and things would look like the US "shock & awe" of the Iraq War. They aren't because they can't.

Not to mention that the Ukrainian Air Force still has a majority of it's aircraft flying and still has significant long-range anti-aircraft weapons active. Again, there is zero reason for Russia to not have destroyed all of this immediately....if they could. The obvious conclusion for the inability to do so is that they can't, not that they're waiting for some mysterious future time when they'll show their true power.

volkl48··on Canada bans foreign home buyers for two years
Tokyo has managed to keep housing prices pretty affordable (and while Japan's population may be shrinking, Tokyo's has continued to grow). Unsurprisingly, they build a LOT of housing and removed most legal/regulatory obstacles to building it a few decades ago.

They issue more permits for new housing units in a year than the entire state of California does, even though California has more than double the population. (or for an East Coast comparison - they issue around 9x the housing permits that NYC does, even though the population is <50% larger).

There have been many articles written on this topic by many publications that you can find, but here's one citation: https://www.ft.com/content/023562e2-54a6-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3...

volkl48··on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022
NATO can't admit anyone with a territorial dispute. Short of Ukraine officially ceding Crimea and the other occupied areas, Ukraine would never be able to be admitted to NATO in it's post-2014 status.
volkl48··on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022
They're not really comparable.

1.) Kyiv is 50mi from the border, Baghdad is 200mi.

2.) Iraq was a numerically far superior force to the coalition, with >500,000 active soldiers and >1.3 million total. Clearing out that many people simply takes time.

3) The coalition moved slowly and largely neutralized resistance along their way, they didn't skip settlements or cities. Russia is trying deep strikes and bypassing/avoiding many of the larger cities/settlements. And those places are not necessarily under any kind of coherent siege at this point either.

4) Coalition losses in the entire war, where they were again, fighting a numerically far superior force, were tiny. ~200 killed. Estimates of Russian losses so far are 10x+ that and with a lot of lost equipment.

I'm not suggesting I think the Ukrainian position is great or that they're poised to win other than via long insurgency, just that I don't think the comparison works.

volkl48··on Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
One obvious answer is that the US massively overproduces food on a scale that's hard to fathom, which is part of why we make extremely inefficient biofuels (corn ethanol) out of a big chunk of it and use it for inefficient meat production.

After some conversion through various bad units of measure (bushels->pounds->calories), and assuming ~2250 calories a day average), it looks to me like current US corn production could feed somewhere around 1.6 billion people their entire yearly caloric needs, if it was actually directed entirely at feeding people as efficiently as possible.

And that is rather obviously not the only crop or source of food originating in the US.

Math sources:

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2022/01-12-2022.php - corn output.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-defense-of-... - bushel/pound/calorie conversion

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In short, I don't think it's very realistic to think that Europe is going to face a literal inability to get enough food even if the entirety of Ukraine never grew another plant again.

volkl48··on Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack
I mean, that was changed with massive forced relocations of the population (in both directions) by the Soviets.

It's not that the "people of Lviv" at the time stopped seeing themselves as Polish, it's that nearly the entire Polish population of the city was forced to relocate to Poland's post-war borders.

volkl48··on Inside Pornhub
> When the NYPD have a guess at who did around 30% of murders

This is false.

NYC homicide clearance rates for 2021 look to be over 70% for the year, with Q4 2021 at 78%. (worst quarter - 55%, best - 86%).

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/reports-analysis/cleara...

> In fact, the vast majority of police are assigned to tasks like traffic enforcement

NYPD is not known exactly known for a particularly large amount of traffic enforcement, to the point that I think you'd find most residents wish they did more of it.

volkl48··on Google Drive users stung by macOS '.DS_Store' copyright infringement issue
I don't believe this is correct. You can't launder money with a safe deposit box, so it makes no sense to have to conduct money laundering checks on one.

Standard rental agreements explicitly state that the bank does not retain a key and is unable to open the box (without destroying the lock) in the event that you lose yours.

For example: https://www.bankofamerica.com/content/documents/deposits/saf...

"The bank does not retain duplicate keys for any rented box".

volkl48··on History's deadliest air raid happened in Tokyo during World War II (2020)
Commenting on the latter point:

The Battle of Okinawa seems like an example - Both willingly and by coercion, a large portion of the civilian population was sent into the battle to die with minimal training or equipment, including children.

Is there some reason to think the populations of those cities would have acted differently if the front lines came to them at that time?

volkl48··on Is this the end of the Cannonball Run?
You'd probably just see a large uptick in people obfuscating their plates (which is much easier with US-style plates than European-style ones).

That's what's happened in NYC. All the drivers who go out intending to blatantly violate the law just started making it so their plates can't be read (or are outright missing) and don't care about the cameras at all.

As someone much further north, unless I just came out of the car wash, my plates are basically illegible 4-6 months a year because of the heavy level of salt/sand/crap on the road in winter.

I don't think you're getting away from requiring a high level of traffic stops to influence driver behavior significantly.

volkl48··on Is this the end of the Cannonball Run?
While I don't think they should exist at all and are blatant corruption, that's wildly overstating the level of "discretion" you're likely to receive for a PBA card.

They might get you out of a minor ticket, in the state/area it's from, and that's less likely if you can't articulate why you have it/how you know the officer it was given to to distribute. (to my knowledge, they're only a particularly widespread thing in the NYC metro area, as well).

They're not likely to get you out of a ticket for the kinds of offenses Cannonball Run participants are committing, IMO.

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