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verteu

1,404 karma · joined August 28, 2013

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verteu··on Israel used Palantir technologies in pager attack in Lebanon
Yes, humanitarian law explicitly applies to enemies who do not, themselves, follow it. It's called [non]-reciprocity:

"The obligation to respect and ensure respect for international humanitarian law does not depend on reciprocity"

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v1/rule140

Nations who break international law frequently spread misconceptions about this.

verteu··on How private equity is changing housing
No, private equity appears to be a minority of home builders: https://www.builderonline.com/builder-100/builder-100-list/2...
verteu··on Prozac 'no better than placebo' for treating children with depression, experts
Sorry to hear it. I believe it's best practice to try different types of drugs (SNRI, atypical/Bupropion, etc).
verteu··on Being poor vs. being broke
> Absolute economic mobility matters much more

The US does poorly on this metric too: https://i.imgur.com/eYHUysQ.png [1] https://i.imgur.com/vLz5iUz.png [2]

(Note that the x-axis is "birth year.")

[1] https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04282...

[2] https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20200631

verteu··on The Lottery-fication of Everything
Thanks, I found some evidence for poor fill quality here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4951825
verteu··on The Lottery-fication of Everything
Look at the total returns of VXX and you'll see why it's tempting to take the opposite position.

There are plenty of reasonable arguments to short vol, eg: https://www.nomura.com/events/9th-annual-global-quantitative...

verteu··on The Lottery-fication of Everything
If they are long options (most likely for retail), their position is convex and benefits from volatility. It's precisely the opposite of holding $XIV.
verteu··on The Lottery-fication of Everything
Does anyone know why options broker fees are so high? A typical cost is ~$0.25/contract for a $1.00 SPY 0DTE, eg: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/pricing/commissions-op...

Does this reflect brokers' cost of technology (many tickers to keep track of)? Regulatory fees? Lack of competition?

edit: Perhaps it's largely profit. Seems https://public.com/invest/options-trading is trying to undercut on price.

verteu··on The Lottery-fication of Everything
> I had an absolutely disgusting thought today: Robinhood should offer parlays. Sell customers a call option on multiple assets. For example a call option to buy Apple at $250, NVDA at $190, GameStop at $25 and Bitcoin at $120k, but only if ALL of them are in the money. Robinhood could buy offsetting calls on each individual asset, then sell the parlay “bundle” to retail. Risk-free profit for Robinhood, and their customers would love it.

I don't see how this is risk-free - surely it involves some opinion on the correlation between the assets?

verteu··on I almost got hacked by a 'job interview'
YC funded a similar "blockchain real estate" company: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/lofty

(I admit I can't see how the blockchain adds any real value to their offering.)

verteu··on Analytical review of depression and suicidality from finasteride
I checked closer and you're correct. Good call, best to stick with meta studies (eg, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546634.2021.1959506).
verteu··on DOJ seizes $15B in Bitcoin from 'pig butchering' scam based in Cambodia
At that scale, you have massive influence within the Cambodian government, so you're not worried about "getting caught" in the traditional sense.
verteu··on I played 1k hands of online poker and built a web app with Cursor AI
That bot only solved 1-on-1 poker ("heads up"). It's much more difficult with more players.
verteu··on Who owns Express VPN, Nord, Surfshark? VPN relationships explained (2024)
Russiagate was not a "fictional narrative," as a cursory amount of research will reveal.

> The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee investigation released their report in five volumes between July 2019 and August 2020. The committee concluded that the intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed", and that the assessment was "proper", learning from analysts that there was "no politically motivated pressure to reach specific conclusions".[11][12] The report found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.

verteu··on Analytical review of depression and suicidality from finasteride
TFA cites eight peer-reviewed studies finding a link. Sounds like decent evidence to me.
verteu··on Analytical review of depression and suicidality from finasteride
The studies listed are all about oral finasteride.
verteu··on The collapse of the econ PhD job market
"true forever" to what extent?

In 1979, 14% of PhDs went to non-citizens. In 2024, it's 38%.

(Table 1-6 in https://ncses.nsf.gov/surveys/earned-doctorates/2024#data )

verteu··on Founder sentenced to seven years in prison for fraudulent sale to JPMorgan
I don't think she gets to keep the money - the prosecution claims she'll be "forced to pay over $300,000,000" in restitution.
verteu··on Tai Lopez charged by SEC in ponzi scheme
One example from 25 years ago hardly demonstrates a "persistent bipartisan" pattern.
verteu··on DSM Disorders Disappear in Statistical Clustering of Psychiatric Symptoms (2024)
No need for family separation. You simply compare the correlation between monozygotic ("identical") twins vs dizygotic ("non-identical") twins.

For example, monozygotic twins will always have the same eye color (99+% correlation), while dizygotic twins do not. Thus we can conclude eye color is genetic. Both twins are raised by their respective parents, so it's unlikely parenting is causing this difference in eye-color-correlation.

verteu··on Scientists say X has lost its professional edge and Bluesky is taking its place
Agreed. Who in good conscience would use a site where the owner regularly posts hateful, trivially-debunked BS?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1970336290148434391

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1969087195798475263

https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1971546061169987846

verteu··on Microsoft blocks Israel’s use of its tech in mass surveillance of Palestinians
"Routinely"? No.

When the customer is indicted by the Hague for crimes against humanity? Yes, it's difficult to imagine a more clear-cut case of professional ethics.

verteu··on DSM Disorders Disappear in Statistical Clustering of Psychiatric Symptoms (2024)
The twin studies would largely control for that.
verteu··on Ask HN: Has anyone else been unemployed for over two years?
"Non-inflation-adjusted tourist dollars spent" was an odd metric to choose.

The number of international arrivals is down YTD (-3%): https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program

verteu··on The health benefits of sunlight may outweigh the risk of skin cancer
> Australia has the highest rate of skin cancer in the world.

It also has excellent life expectancy.

The key question is: For all-cause mortality, do the benefits outweigh the risks?

verteu··on Ask HN: Has anyone else been unemployed for over two years?
Sorry to hear it. What country are you in?
verteu··on “No Tax on Tips” Includes Digital Creators, Too
Probably nothing.

It seems quite reasonable that unrealized capital gains would be treated differently for "a primary residence" vs "a multi-billion-dollar stake in a company controlled by the owner."

A far better question is: Why does my company pay me in cash (40% marginal tax rate) instead of "equity shares of 'special partnership units' representing the value added by verteu's labor" (20% capital gains tax)?

Or: "How did Mitt Romney's Roth IRA grow to $100,000,000 with a $7,000 annual contribution limit?"

verteu··on “No Tax on Tips” Includes Digital Creators, Too
> Should he get a refund if Oracle stock tanks?

Presumably it would function the same way as realized capital gains taxes (no refund on tax already paid)?

verteu··on Japan sets record of nearly 100k people aged over 100
Indeed – It's true that average life expectancy is a more robust metric. But Japan is top 3 by that metric as well.
verteu··on “No Tax on Tips” Includes Digital Creators, Too
True, though it's irksome how the chart conflates "Rich" with "High taxable income."

These are not the same, which is exactly the problem!

eg: The #1 most wealthy American is Larry Ellison, whose net worth increased $89B today with zero tax implications.

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