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uuilly

2,890 karma · joined April 3, 2007

http://about.me/willypell
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uuilly··on Twenty Billionaires Who Started With Nothing
If you're talking about the US this is a popular misconception. The number of rich and poor people does stay the same from generation to generation. But the people themselves move very fluidly through these brackets. One of the best predictors of income bracket is age. Young people are much more likely to be poor but they seldom remain poor. As they gain more experience they become more valuable and pull themselves out of poverty. Likewise many people with medium and large amounts of money lose it and become poor. Saying, "In 1990 10% of the US is poor and in 2010 10% are still poor" is pretty silly if most of 1990's poor are different people than 2010's poor.

Tracking flesh and blood people through time using tax returns from the IRS yields dramatically different conclusions than tracking buckets of people using Census data. I'd like to do a visualization of income bracket churn in the US. From what I've read I imagine it would look roughly like this:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/02/23/movies/2008022...

Also Thomas Sowell has written extensively on this exact subject. Here is an article about this misconception that is a lot more elegant than this comment:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/11/income_con...

uuilly··on Excellent analysis of Assange's Wikileaks motivations (from the horse's mouth)
I wonder if he would have any objection to posting internal Wikileaks emails and documents. In the name of transparency I'd like to see the behind the scenes thought process for posting the cables.
uuilly··on The Truth about California: It's actually saving the rest of the USA
Most of the pain of California's bad policies have not yet been felt. Things are easy when you're spending but they get harder when you have to pay people back. Also rich people and corporations are leaving the state and poor people, mainly Mexican immigrants, are moving in. So along with a completely unsustainable budget, the largest tax contributers are decreasing and the largest tax recipients are increasing.

California cannot survive without some combination of:

-Huge Spending cuts

-Huge Tax increases (which, if overdone, may result in less tax revenue.)

-Federal Gov't bailout.

You can play cause and effect all you want, but basic arithmetic is really all that matters.

uuilly··on Ask HN: Inspirational movies
Shawshank Redemption

Hudsucker Proxy

uuilly··on Y Combinator announces two new partners, Paul Buchheit and Harj Taggar
I toggle between b-yew-kite and b-yew-shay followed by, "you know, the gmail guy."
uuilly··on The quest for freedom and safety: Why I donated $100,000 to YesOn19
I was talking about Afghanistan, opium and RPG's. I was also speaking from personal experience not from TV experience.
uuilly··on The quest for freedom and safety: Why I donated $100,000 to YesOn19
The worst side effect of the drug trade is that it funds a worldwide network of highly capable smugglers. To them drugs are just an arbitrary material to be moved from point A to point B. Drug networks move terrorists, weapons, nuclear material, slaves and child prostitutes just as easily as they move bags of powder. But drugs are the smugglers' bread and butter. The other more harmful things are just the salt. But demand for the more harmful cargo is not sufficient enough to fund such a large and competent industry.

I worked in the MIL/INTEL world for a long time and a staggering number of really nasty things turned up amongst bags of powder all over the world. Drug networks are like VPN for physical objects. And drug producers would happily abandon that protocol for FEDEX if they could. The remaining market for moving things we truly cannot live with would be reduced by many orders of magnitude if we gave up on the drug war.

uuilly··on Benoit Mandelbrot, RIP
"Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth ..."

-Benoit Mandelbrot

uuilly··on New: Distributed Open House the day after Startup School
I like how many Bay Area startups have SF addresses now.
uuilly··on Google: What We're Driving At
Surprised I'm being down-voted. This story is real. Both cars have the same Lidar scanner and other hardware.

http://bit.ly/d8nIZp

Trace through the people in both stories and you'll see the connections.

uuilly··on Google: What We're Driving At
Robo Prius in 2008: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-10042320-76.html
uuilly··on Visualization: The evolution of Python
This seems to capture volume and frequency of change but not necessarily magnitude of change.
uuilly··on Ask HN: Who Is Hiring? (October 2010 Edition)
510 Systems. Berkeley CA. <50 People, all profit, no VC. We make car-top mapping systems (similar to those used in google street view,) and visualization / extraction software for the data.

If you like any of the following:

-3d graphics

-HUGE HUGE HUGE data storage, access and manipulation problems

-Embedded systems

-Realtime systems

-Finite state markov chains

-Computer vision

-Probabilistic robotics

-GPS filtering

-Extracting physical objects from lidar generated point clouds

-Making clean intuitive UI's for people to interact w/ all of the above

Then please email me.

Our website is essentially non-existent b/c we have only been serving a few REALLY big customers and they are the only ones who have needed to find us - for now. The vision is huge and it has a real chance of becoming a public company one day. Good pay, equity, heavy engineering culture, mac, linux or windows agnostic. If any of this appeals to you, fire me a resume. We'll act fast if we think there is a fit.

uuilly··on The Hardy Boys - The final chapter (1998)
I have tears streaming down my face and I have been cackling like a maniac for 10 minutes.

I LOVED the Hardy Boys. They felt serious for that age. The hardbacks had a classic feel. The pages were thick, the illustrations mysterious and the covers were heavy and ornate. When I finished one I felt like I accomplished something. I would put it on the shelf in between 10 others and decide on the next one - usually by coolness of cover. I vividly remember the scene in "Missing Chums" when they drove the boat into the smugglers cave. My heart was pounding. I remember I got so nervous that I hid under a table and shifted positions constantly while reading it. It may have been the first time I got completely immersed in a book.

Knowing that he called the books, "The Juveniles," and that he viscerally hated every every word of every page, is like finding out that Santa Claus doesn't exist - at age 32.

And just to twist the knife, on my birthday the author wrote in his diary: June 9, 1933: "Tried to get at the juvenile again today but the ghastly job appalls me."

Ok I just woke my girlfriend up by laughing so hard. I don't know what to think. Goodnight HN. Thank you for the best thing I've read all year.

uuilly··on Review my weekend HTML5 project: DropMocks
My favorite part is how well you scoped it for a w/e project and still came out w/ something useful. Very well done.
uuilly··on S3 glitch causes Tarsnap outage
A good explanation is reassuring.
uuilly··on Google Instant Proves Google's Design Process is Broken
I also think their new image search is a disaster. I like the infinite scroll bar (which bing did before them) but I hate how the images pop in and out. The whole experience is jarring.
uuilly··on Move to SF and hate it?
Oh for sure:

cartel |kärˈtel| noun an association of manufacturers or suppliers with the purpose of maintaining prices at a high level and restricting competition : the Colombian drug cartels. • chiefly historical a coalition or cooperative arrangement between political parties intended to promote a mutual interest.

uuilly··on Move to SF and hate it?
Wow, nice find. So they fix the price AND the supply. Our urban overlords have reached a Soviet level of confidence in their ability to manage an economy.
uuilly··on Move to SF and hate it?
As an SF resident I concur w/ most of what you're saying. For me it's not a deal breaker, but I can see how it could be. Almost every one of your bullet points can be explained by the phrase, "Liberalism gone nuclear."

[Expensive] -> Rent control and Private property restrictions. Housing supply is limited w/ endless permits and restrictions on building additions or subdividing space. And rent controls not only create artificial scarcity by not allowing price to rise w/ demand, but they also encourage people to stay in large places long after they need them. Imagine what the web would look like if you had to wait for months for a zoning board to approve your server expansion.

[Casual Food] -> Wait staff must be given minimum wage and health insurance whereas the wait staff in most other cities live off tips. What happens is restaurants become EXTREMELY expensive to run and they usually fire the wait staff at lower end places. You'll notice the order at register and take a number tag game played a lot to get around it. I know a few high end chefs who had to move their restaurants to Oakland b/c their waiters made more than them.

[Music] -> Don't have anything for you on this one.

[Cabs] -> Government set prices are too low. Demand exceeds supply at that price and there is an artificial shortage.

[Parking] -> Tickets are one of the most reliable ways to pay for all the hair-brained social experiments that take place here.

[Small] -> Fixed housing supply. See rent control / private property restrictions.

[Commute] -> I don't have an easy explanation.

[Filthy] -> Amen. We don't have a homeless problem we have a zombie problem. Your run of the mill drug addict is seen as a victim rather than a scourge. He is given food, money and shelter by the government to continue his habit. My friend worked for a non-profit in the Tenderloin that offered shelter, clothes, showers, haircuts and job help to anyone indefinitely as long as they submitted to drug tests. Their beds in 3 buildings were always empty and they shut down.

[Public Transpo] -> Make a bus driver too expensive by catering too much to the unions and busses have to get bigger. It's the opposite effect of the long tail. Instead of many small vans and more custom routes, you have few huge routes that serve nobody very well. Also the homeless ride the bus for free.

[Haight] -> In the late 60's the Grateful Dead and their followers began to get sketched out living there. Heroin and crime have been the norm there for years. It's foul and there is no police presence.

All of these policies had very good intentions. But the intention of a policy does not determine it's outcome. Furthermore, almost none of their side effects are ever measured by the government. It's fine if you want to experiment, but at least measure the result.

uuilly··on Ask YC: Have you ever ignored Paul Graham?
Paul Graham is not some magic oracle. He's a statistician who has seen, experienced and analyzed (formally and informally) a lot of very rich data. To ignore him and get away with it you either have to be an outlier in his model or the kind of person who would never appear in his model to begin with.

He mainly sees YC applicants and there may be a selection bias among them. Entirely possible that there is a really great trait among founders that makes them unlikely to apply to YC and likely to succeed without his advice.

That said, dude has been around.

uuilly··on Arcade Fire meets HTML5
I love Arcade Fire but this was over the top gimmicky and it puked new windows everywhere.
uuilly··on Increasing complexity: A day in the life of the president
"Gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement! When James Madison and 54 other geniuses went to Philadelphia in the sweltering summer of 1787, they did not go there to design an efficient government. That idea would have horrified them. They wanted a safe government, to which end they filled it with blocking mechanisms: three branches of government, two branches of the legislative branch, veto, veto override, supermajorities, and judicial review. And yet, I can think of nothing the American people have wanted intensely and protractedly that they did not eventually get. The world understands, a world most of whose people live under governments they wish were capable of gridlock, that we always have more to fear from government speed than government tardiness."

-George Will

uuilly··on Google Buys Slide for $182 Million, Getting More Serious about Social Games
As near as I can tell it makes 14 y/o girls happy. I can wrap my head around a lot of small companies going big, but I never could find a way to rationalize the hype behind slide.
uuilly··on Ze Frank is hiring for a new startup
"You should tell your coder friends that you are a designer and your designer friends that you are a coder."
uuilly··on New York governor approves short-term apartment rental ban in NYC
Sowell quotes him heavily.
uuilly··on New York governor approves short-term apartment rental ban in NYC
Love it. I've been reading a bunch of Thomas Sowell recently. That seems like it could be straight out of "A Conflict of Visions."
uuilly··on New York governor approves short-term apartment rental ban in NYC
Economics: The study of the distribution of scarce resources with alternative uses.

It would be great if more people knew that.

uuilly··on Google takes the FTC to school
Schmidt makes great arguments for why government should not meddle with newspapers. Unfortunately the same arguments could be made to say government should not meddle w/ ISP's who charge web services for premium pipes.
uuilly··on Katrina's Silver Lining: The School Choice Revolution in New Orleans
It's mostly minorities demanding, and benefiting from School Choice. If it's segregation, it has a funny way of showing it.
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