2,732 karma · joined November 27, 2009
[ my public key: https://keybase.io/ericzoo; my proof: https://keybase.io/ericzoo/sigs/t9iVrTM-nBzfWmSOXXpuQ7ob_nezTOl2VlkAtU6rERQ ]
The way i predict success in online businesses is how well they can replicate real-world actions and dynamic. The bigger and better the set of real human actions a startup can build a online counterpart for, the stronger it becomes.
Facebook is building online equivalent of verbs or actions you can do with people. so the more verbs it can do the more unstoppable it becomes.
What if someone can build the Facebook+ phone? i would also bet on that.
My money is either in 1 of the 3 giants (GOOG, APP, MS) finally getting the social web right or Twitter.
But the problem with Twitter is it has fumbled countless times already and is only growing due to the strength and type of its community. So i have no confidence they can catch up to Facebook.
So Im guessing if its not the 3 giants, it will be an inter-operable social layer and a thousand private social networks.
MS has Xbox, Xbox Live, Windows but weak mobile + web products.
Apple has itunes, ios, macosx but negligible web prowess and zero social web domain expertise.
Google has strong web engineering output and Android, nothing else come to mind.
If you can apply a social web layer to their products which would come out stronger?
The answer to that might be the Facebook killer I think.
1. A destination site that is closely tied to a mobile hardware device. (Apple, Google and MS have the closest chance with this). +1 if company has TV expansion to get the rest of the population.
2. Implosion. Internal conflict most probably from investors/shareholders vs. leaders.
3. Site-wide security breach that affected more than 30% of users and had serious and press-juicy consequences. The issue should persist for more than a week.
4. Zuckerberg's death or serious illness. (non-issue if a strong leader emerges)
5. Talent migration. This is inevitable as there will be fewer and fewer challenges left to excite sharp minds (3-5 years)
its just 7 months into building this stuff and its all our first time so i think its par for the course. Certainly excited to launch soon.
Anyway, i think im unto something here but feel free to demolish, debate or improve upon it.
The purpose is for them not to meddle (eek!) but to be more informed, (give better suggestions, know how close you are to a milestone, have less meeting)
For the team, itll be a good motivational tool and reinforcement mechanism.
ITs a bad idea if you have a bad investor, good idea if you have a good investor.
---end of devil advocation (?)
+ "..construction the voice box of God out of the brain stem of man.." = The human mind created God.
One benefit of microtransaction payment providers is that they have a multitude of payment method including load cards, pay thru sms, etc.
I would think that consumer web app would have better revenue if it was ARPU instead of 2-5% conversion rates. Does this make sense to anyone else?