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topper-123

175 karma · joined October 16, 2020

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topper-123··on Things I’ve Learned from Charlie Munger about Moats (2015)
Followup assignment: Are those actually Charlie Munger quotes or did the GPT make them up?

I'd be impressed if the GPT it can supply sources for quotes (ok I'm still impressed, but sources for facts is a weakness of it).

topper-123··on Yes, you should still learn to code
I play chess and like it, even though the computer in my pocket can win every human player.
topper-123··on Credit Suisse finds ‘material weakness’ in reporting, scraps exec bonuses
Even if if doesn’t fail, the shareholderd might be wiped out though.
topper-123··on Turkey’s inflation soars to 73%, a 23-year high, as food and energy costs rise
> there are crypto exchange on every corner.

I don't use cryptocurrencies, could you explain how corner crypto exchanges work? I didn't even know that was a thing.

topper-123··on Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did
Stablecoins must be the must crazy investment in the modern era, right after NFTs: by buying them, you’re essentially betting that the stablecoin can maintain its peg. By not buying them and keeping dollars, you get the same outcome except safer.

It’s just nuts.

topper-123··on Meta earnings presentation Q1 2022 [pdf]
> $400-600 soon imho.

Revenue growth is stopping, no way they’re going to that level anytime soon. Also, if a recession is coming, as some say with interest rates rising, ad expenditure will fall, affecting Meta greatly.

OTOH, it has a moat from its network effect and its earnings are insane in absolute terms, so could also pivot to become a nice cash cow instead of a growth stock in the coming years.

topper-123··on Aeroflot to Halt International Flights from March 8
According to wikipedia their fleet is 95 % Airbus and Boing. I’d assume the sanctions (lack of parts/service) may make it not possible to operate those. In that case the sanctions are very effective.

It will also be very interesting to see if they can continue to produce, or even maintain, the Sukhoi Superjet 100 while under sanctions (The engine is partly made by french company Snecma). If they can’t, the russian aviation industry will come to a screeching halt, very fast.

Interesting times for everyone, and not in a good way…

topper-123··on Last Day of IKEA in Moscow
This is actually easy to know:

Did you say something positive (judged by the state)? It is not fake news.

Did you say something negative (judged by the state)? It is fake news.

It is a simple erosion of citizen rights, giving the state vastly more power over its citizens than previously.

topper-123··on Putin orders Russian peacekeepers to eastern Ukraine's two breakaway regions
Sanctions obviously isn’t a viable deterrent against Russia, so sanctions at this point is just giving the optics of action.

The underlying problem is no doubt the dependency on Russia for energy. Europe will have to fix this problem as soon as possible.

topper-123··on Black, the uncompromising Python code formatter, is stable
> Black is opinionated so you don't have to be.

This is a very nice quote and sums up my own view on black (and code formatters in general) nicely. Thera are things you don´t really want to have an opinion about.

topper-123··on Danish intelligence chief held over suspected info leaks, local media report
Yes, corrected.
topper-123··on Danish intelligence chief held over suspected info leaks, local media report
The timeline of this is very strange:

- in august he had been put on administrative leave

- he was imprisoned on the 9th of december

- on the 13th of december an independant commission set up by parliament (consisting of three judges) exponerated everyone implicated in this case

- on the 14th of december, the minister of defence welcomed him back to work

- today, 10th of january the public learned for the first time that he was imprisoned and still is imprisoned.

So even though he was exonerated by the independent commitee AND welcomed back by the minister, he is actually in prison. Very strange situation, makes we wonder if there are aspects of the case the public does not know about, or if someone has made an enormous error.

topper-123··on The Antikythera mechanism reveals new secrets
A fun alternative time line to think about would be if the romans had progressed, had depleted all coal and oil resources, leaving us today in a postapocalyptic wasteland, having the knowledge how to build an advanced society, but lacking the ressources…
topper-123··on PlayDate Fulfillment Delayed
In that case it was an incredibly stupid move for car manufacturers to wind down orders for semiconductors, even in the face of covid. The down side risk is huge.
topper-123··on PlayDate Fulfillment Delayed
This doesn’t serm right. The car manufacturers would surely just buy their way into the front of the line, if it was just this. Chips are a fraction of a car’s value and the cost of stopping car production lines must be a lot higher than buying slots in s chip production facility.
topper-123··on Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due
> Evergrande, the world's most indebted developer … grapples with more than $300 billion in liabilities, $19 billion of which are international market bonds.

Sounds like this is mostly domestic debt, so they cant make this go away by saying they wont support international debt holders. Seems like the CCP in a tough spot here.

topper-123··on Stack Overflow sold to Prosus for $1.8B
> sold a small portion of its equity stake in Tencent in April for $14.6 billion.

Personally I would never use “small” to describe anything worth 15B…

Anyway, Tencent is worth 850B and these guys own approx. 200B of that, so they’re quite large.

topper-123··on Show HN: Array – A Better Python List
Just letting it implicitly be the first parameter would be good enough IMO, and a nice symmetry to self` in methods. That'd be very simple, which would be a plus in my book.

Pandas allows the first param in a pipe to be a tuple[callable, str], where the second argument would signify the parameter location, e.g. `val |> (func, "param_name")` which gives some flexibility.

But yeah, if you open up to piping, there are a lot of possible choices to be made and easy to go overboard also IMO.

topper-123··on Show HN: Array – A Better Python List
I'd like to have a chaining operator in Python, like R is getting. Then the example could be:

> a |> zip(b) |> map(func1) |> filter(func2) |> forall(func3)

The advantages would be that this would work with all lists/iterables, so no need to make a special types.

topper-123··on A simple group-by-and-agg speed comparison inc. Clojure, Pandas, R and Julia
I can't imagine that `.to_parquet` takes any time at all, relative to `groupby.agg`. But yeah, It would be nice to get seperate benchnmarks for the two parts of your benchmark.

Maybe one-factor groupbys are faster in pandas, while two-factor groupbys (as in https://h2oai.github.io/db-benchmark/) are slower?

topper-123··on A simple group-by-and-agg speed comparison inc. Clojure, Pandas, R and Julia
I'm a pandas core developer and this is very interesting to me.

That `groupby.apply` is a lot slower than `groupby.agg` does not surprise me at all: `groupby.apply` can do a lot of things that `groupby.agg` can't do, at the cost of being potentially a lot slower. In general, `groupby.apply` should only be used, when `groupby.agg` can't do the job.

However, are you saying that pandas's `groupby.agg` is faster than r's data.table, julia and clojure? That surprises me a lot.

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