It's very bad
1,902 karma · joined June 15, 2014
The bubble now isn't even about LLMs, but has affected the entire stack. Even hardware companies are offering rubbish for the sake of prop'ing up their own valuation.
CUDA had decades of improvements, we may have AGI (tm) earlier than what it will take AMD to fix their broken software.
MI450 doesn't work well at all, OpenAI would rather take the deal and overspend in a project to try to use it for their software stack, which is incompatible with it.
Just for the sake of proping up valuations, with no "market competitiveness" guidance. Just for moving money.
Funnily enough, Google is ahead of all of this, as they can make their on TPUs and have their integrated stack. They don't need to generate fake economic activityu.
Language is fluid, and many of words got their very known & popular meanings later, when people used for things that it didn't exactly mean what it was initially intended to, and it got popular.
People are ever less empathetic and sociable, this being the reason for such comments.
The fat margins is in training, in NVidia hardware.
In theory, expect even higher amounts of "virtual" money being circulated (stock options deals), until people stop believing in it.
It's the time you can be certain that NASDAQ will go only up.
Until it doesn't.
Then we will learn how much money came from banks financing either directly those GPU deals, or indirectly (energy, infra etc).
Lots of depreciation will happen.
Then banks will start posting huge lossess, and then FED will need to rescue it all, because it goes on a spiral and can end up worse if they don't do anything.
Funnily enough, H100s are already old hardware, and soon will all get fully depreciated.
Billions and billions of depreciated assets!
Literally the whole big tech will melt. There are banks that are backing up certain GPU deals and those will be hit with billion losses as well.
Imagine once they have to depreciate those $1T+ of GPUs, data centers and the like that can't even be on resale for gaming.
Imagine when economic blocks like the EU and BRICs starts to reject more US software, when so much of those Big Tech revenues are made abroad. The recent geopolitics plays being a key factor.
This looks really bad.
I bet some people wouldn't install it now because it looks kinda meh.
Most people in Germany don't live big and don't have any intentions of doing so. No AC and people have real concerns about the environment and our impact on it.
The truth is that "UBI" already exists in most countries, one could argue that even in the US already does, in form of food stamps etc.
Here in Germany you get housing, food and everything if you can't find a job.
In Brazil you also get money so you can eat.
It isn't as expensive as one might think to cover basic needs to people, as well, this makes them consume which makes the economy function well.
If AI reshapes society so most human jobs aren't necessary, UBI would be pointless as it stems from the existence of capitalism as it is.
I'm not preaching about communism, but rather a different economic system. How that economic system will be? Nobody knows.
It's a digital market, NFT-esque, sold as a game.
Maybe this will be part of a bigger acquisition... or maybe they have already acquired everything they could, except that they don't want make FIFA look like a bad saudi organization?
It's so easy to mess up on Excel, there are no crystal clear diffs like on Git. And even if that on Git we make mistakes.
Very often you have data that affects other data etc.
Also, we have DBs and other resources (even MS Access...) because we know how error-prone are Excel sheets.
If using AI adds another layer of potential problems with my Excel sheets, I'm not sure how using it would improve my overall work.
I believe they'd need to change the Excel quite a lot in order to make using AI 'excel'.
Maybe the new Excel is a new Excel-esque application with a new layer of tools to enable it to work properly with AI.
Like something that allows you to validate against a set of values described by prompt etc.
There are so many possibilities now with LLMs and I feel those integrations are very shallow, more of the same thing.
I don't need a Clippy on steroids. I want a new experience.
It's a very simple money-printing machine, with plenty of people addicted to it with its gambling/gache style game.
All the other IP barely make any revenue and will likely get even less attention. RIP Bioware.
Public healthcare is the only way to go. This has been proven multiple times in so many countries.
In Amazon... You'd be surprised to know how many brands sell 90% of the products availabile there.
The same applies to Youtube, you'd be surprised to know how many channels per country gets 90% of the views.
It's an illusion. We have billion of people...
It also brings back memory of 2000s internet, but merged into Today's design standards. I assume this was intentional.
If the US is willing to destroy certain areas of its country in exchange for money, Europe will give them the dollars.
If Europe has nobody else to do it for them, I'm sure they'll do it themselves.
Programming will still exist, it will be just different. Programming has changed a lot of times before as well. I don't think this time is different.
If programming became suddenly too easy to iterate upon, people would be building new competitors to SAP, Salesforce, Shopify and other solutions overnight, but you rarely see any good competitor coming around.
The necessary involvement behind understanding your customers needs, iterating on it between product and tech is not to be underestimated. AI doesn't help with that at all, at maximum is a marginal iteration improvement.
Knowing what to build has been for a long time the real challenge.
As I've mentioned, industrialization will happen benefiting jobs for blue collars, but you'll have lots of inflation.
And inflation hurts a lot the poor, as they have little to zero discretionary income. It's like a sales tax, it affects the poor more than the rich, proportional to how much they have available to spend.
A country with lots of factories can't afford suburbs, F150s, houses (instead of small condos).
I know this because I live in Germany, and we do have factories, but the life you can afford working in one of them is much more humble than a construction worker in the US can already right now.
Americans will need to learn to live on cramped spaces and stuff that doesn't make sense, as they'll really hate it.
There's no way the US government will have money to maintain all that suburban infrastructure, huge defense expenses without being high in the value chain.
Because of jobs data, it will 100% cut interest rates in the next 2-3 FED meetings with inflation clearly showing an upwards trend.
US could print money for over a decade because of China exporting deflation to it and the world, now that China is an enemy, it's up for a rude awakening.
Monetary policies matter, the Dollar will suffer great debasement (it already is).
Imagine how many dollars are in supply around the world, and now the world is quitting the dollar.
There'll be too many dollars for too little demand. Fasten your seatbelts...
The country will become industrialized for the wrong reasons -- by becoming poorer.
LLMs risk most of those companies business, they can't afford to not be ahead. If they aren't ahead, there's a risk that the entire US's economy would be in a terrible shape.
American Big Tech companies that make plenty of INTERNATIONAL revenue from Ads (Meta, Google), can quickly become a shell of its former self.
How? Countries and economic blocks could quickly substitute their American products counterparts if they have nothing to offer and could roll out their own.
The US's economy has become very dependant on FAANG cashflow, it's what gets other parts of the economy moving.
No wonder they had a dinner with Trump. If this fades away, US will look very weak and with a terrible economic outlook.
Those publications' content are ephemeral and age quite fast, you don't learn much that can help you develop over time.
Those subscriptions aren't very helpful on what you want to improve, they are good for you to understand the current economic scenario and new hypes and booms, and each have their own biases. I'd prefer HBR over the others.
They are also good for you to keep up on subjects so you can talk with other people that are business types.
But the fact that US's diplomatic policy USED TO make us not want to do it.
Europe using US tech was a bonding measure between the two parties.
We can quickly and easy build european "FAANG" overnight, even now more with AI search making it easy to replace Google.
We even already have it: think Ecosia, Protonmail etc. There are tons of those.
The same is for social media. It would be very easy to flip a social media app akin to Instagram, or FB.
The issue is getting users and have alignment that this would be the "european version".
We never had to do this, or think of it, because US had a very benevolent and good relationship with Europe, and US big tech used to make us feel even more connected.
Also, it fails to iterate on complex features. If you are just creating CRUDs, it may work. But even on CRUD scenarios I've seen it completely lose context and use wrong values and things go broke in ways that are hard to track or update.
I'm surprised people work with it and say those things. Are they really using the same tool I use?
I'm sure the problem isn't my prompting, because I've tried watching many videos of people doing the same, and I see the same issues as I've said.
All those LLMs benchmarks are terrible. LLMs gets better at it, but users don't perceive it. LLMs haven't improved that much the last year.
For AI in general, the future is bright. Now we have a lot of brain power and hardware available, more new research will pop up.
A LONG TIME AGO, Claude (your favorite LLM model?) Shannon has shown that entropy is a fundamental limit. There may be limitations we aren't aware of 'intelligence'.
Despite what experts say, Superintelligence or AGI might not even exist.
Is AGI knowing all the possible patterns in the universe? Nobody can even properly define it. But it is wrong, as not every intelligent thing isn't a pattern.
But are cars going to drive themselves by using similar inputs than a human? Yes, probably soon
Also many improvements to machinery, factories and productivity. They will shape the economy to a new format. No superintelligence or AGI needed. Just 'human'-level pattern recognition.