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themantalope

271 karma · joined October 15, 2016

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themantalope··on Revolutionary Stroke Treatment Will Save Millions of Lives
It’s interesting that the media is just picking up on this now. The first major trial results that showed benefits of thrombectomy was the DAWN trial and if I recall the data was first published in 2016-2017. The hospital I work at adjusted stroke treatment practices years ago to reflect this.
themantalope··on Social media is a cause, not a correlate, of mental illness in teen girls
I don’t have a link on hand, but what I recall regarding sex differences in suicide is that there is a higher incidence of suicide attempts among females but a lower success rate than males. This is what I know about adults, I don’t know if that includes adolescents.
themantalope··on Ask HN: Why Is Everything Declining?
“Play long-term games with long-term people. All returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest.”

Idk, maybe for whatever reason right now, as others mentioned, the macro environment or maybe your micro environment is incentivizing this behavior but it won’t work out in the long run.

Just gotta do you, and do good, OP.

themantalope··on How to get new ideas
Agree. ChatGPT can help with taking a rough or vague idea and better articulate what you are trying to say.
themantalope··on A new scan to detect and cure the commonest cause of high blood pressure
Yeah there are other ways to tell if someone has aldosterone driven hypertension through blood work and urine tests. These other tests are to determine if surgery could fix the problem (tumor or unilateral vs bilateral abnormal aldosterone production).

Edited for clarity

themantalope··on A new scan to detect and cure the commonest cause of high blood pressure
Radiologist.

Depending on the protocol, CT scans usually take anywhere from 5 seconds to 10 minutes (in the longer scans most of that is waiting after contrast injection).

MRI studies take a long time to acquire data, usually at least 20 minutes for very short/limited studies. More involved protocols can take hours. Patient throughput is slower.

themantalope··on A new scan to detect and cure the commonest cause of high blood pressure
Radiologist.

It’s cool, it’s a nice study. The article definitely over hypes the “common cause of hypertension”. These lesions are rare. Most people with high blood pressure have it because of metabolic disease/chronic stress/lifestyle, and it can be managed with changes to diet exercise and meds.

It is true that doing adrenal vein sampling is hard and not always successful. Having a protocol that can non-invasively detect these lesions may save some people a procedure.

themantalope··on Study: Chances of serious side effects from coronavirus vaccines
It's an interesting publication, and a necessary one. However, there are a couple of thoughts to keep in mind:

1. The confidence intervals for the risk differences are wide, and some categories include negative numbers. This means that perhaps the vaccines were protective (?) against these other outcomes, but overall the trend based on this analysis is the vaccines were associated with increased risk of these other bad outcomes.

2. Capturing and reporting SAEs in the study designs are sensitive but not specific (i.e. they try to capture everything and aren't particularly concerned with verifying the cause of the SAE). For example, in the Pfizer study, they captured data related to any SAE from the start of consent to 6 months after the last dose of trial vaccine [1]. That is a long time for typical medical problems to crop up. I would like to know a comparison between the intervention group and the estimated rates of such illnesses for an age-matched population.

3. In this study they looked at all SAEs as compared to any SAE (which is what the FDA did). I don't want to discredit they study in any way and it is a valid analysis. However, it is important to keep in mind that when someone becomes ill, injury to one organ system can cause downstream injury to a second (for example a heart attack reduces cardiac output, which causes kidney injury). One way to explain the findings here is that the vaccine triggered more secondary, unintended, bad outcomes. Another way to explain the data is that a small number of people became very ill in the peri-vaccination period and had a lot of bad stuff happen. Also keep in mind from point 2 that the time period for collecting SAEs was from consent to 6 months after the last dose of vaccine.

The data presented here is interesting, and it's possible that the vaccines could be more harmful than initially thought. Overall, I am skeptical. The numbers here are still very low compared to the total number of people in the trial. If patient level data is released and there is more meat to the findings here it might change how I think about vaccination, but at this point I wouldn't change.

[1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577/suppl_f...

themantalope··on Ask HN: Burnt-out, directionless but want to turn it around
There is a lot in this post that I completely agree with.

The main part is that our success is highly situational. I think this somewhat ties in with luck - working hard in the right situation pays off.

themantalope··on My students cheated... a lot
I'm curious, what changes in governance and funding to higher ed institutions would you change? What did you teach/study?
themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Second follow up.

Results are not impressive until they are :)

It's certainly not a solved problem, and it's easy to have a pessimistic view now but I'm generally bullish on where things will be 10 years from now.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Problem is though for most of these diseases there just aren't the number of samples available, period, to do it the "right way". HCC for example, has around 50K new cases/year in the US. Even if every single case went into a repository with perfect labels, would still take a long time to collect that info. Not to mention you need either a radiologist (4 year of medical school + 6 years of post-school training) or a very skilled and experienced technician to label the data.

Not to mention imaging protocols are not standardized, and the imaging technology is also evolving so scans we do today may not be "correct" or standard in 5-10 years.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Label availability is a big problem. There are some academic collaborations for some diseases which is making this better, but datasets in general are minuscule compared to what is available for more general computer vision applications.

I am hopeful though. Few-shot learning and self supervision are very active questions right now and there are a lot of papers in the medical AI field that are getting published on these topics.

I'm personally interested in liver cancer, which does not have large, well-curated and shared database of cases.

Sharing data gets tricky, especially in the US. Labels I'm working with and creating (at least at this point) are for my own research, which won't be shared publicly any time soon.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Extremely important, and is the most important question to ask in any screening scenario.

It's not the case the more screening is always better. There are plenty of screening regimes that you've never heard about because the trial data didn't support it.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
This is a real scenario that happens regularly.
themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa1102873

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3762603/

What I found mind blowing when I first read these studies (particularly the second link) is that the positive-predictive value of the CT screen was only 3.8% for lung nodules that were 4mm or larger in size. Basically just means we find all kinds of lung abnormalities all the time that "could be cancer" but aren't.

Keep in mind, that the screening criteria was people over age 65 who had a 30+ pack-year smoking history (1 pack-year = smoking 1 pack of cigarettes per day in one year), and had to have smoked within the last 15 years.

I can also tell you from doing CT lung biopsies that it's not a procedure to take lightly. Lot of important structures in the chest.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
I'm not worried. If things are that different, the rest of the economy will be too. The job will also evolve over time, like any other profession that changes with new technology.

It's our job (as radiologists and engineers) to shape that in a way that benefits patients.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Until you've had an unnecessary biopsy that kills you :)
themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Secondary follow up.

I don't think that a human reader in the loop will be going away for a long time. Sure, they can be at parity, but does a combined read have better results? This is an active research question.

I think what will happen is that over time, human interpreters and AI systems will "co-evolve" in a sense, where people will pick up on where models are wrong and also learn how to use models to understand their own blind spots. These are also active research topics that are in their infancy.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
https://www.rsna.org/news/2022/march/AI-Potential-in-Breast-...

EDIT: To be clear, I believe that this is a different group of authors from coolwulf. Pubmed link:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35348377/

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
Yeah, those are part of the issue. For example on the webpage, there is no discussion about the false negative/positive rate of the system, and no comparison or link to an academic paper that compares the performance of the system to a trained breast radiologist.

Does a patient take a negative exam as "I'm good!" and forego actually seeing a doctor, or having the exam read by a radiologist?

A positive result is also a challenging situation. I've talked to patients before after diagnosing them, and as you could expect most people are shocked, scared or they want to know what they should do next.

In breast radiology specifically (at least in the US) there is a well defined reporting lexicon and classification system. From what I can tell, the system does not use the lexicon or BI-RADS classification. https://www.acr.org/-/media/ACR/Files/RADS/BI-RADS/BIRADS-Re...

Breast cancer can be very subtle, and can be hard to figure out, especially if a patient has had surgery or other benign abnormalities. https://radiopaedia.org/cases/development-of-dcis?case_id=de...

Diagnostic and screening images also undergo rigorous QA for the entire system. Does the model have some kind of QA built in?

There is a just a small disclaimer at the top that says "we will not store your data on the server. please do not worry about privacy issues". Not exactly a formal or legal binding agreement.

In fact, you can't even connect over https. http://mammo.neuralrad.com:5300/upload

These are just a few things that come to mind off the top of my head. Like I said before, I do think that what coolwulf works on and is trying to do is good, and in the long run can help doctors better characterize findings and help patients. But like anything in health care, there are a lot of edge cases and side effects that you have to think about. The stakes are also very high.

themantalope··on “Amateur” programmer fought cancer with 50 Nvidia Geforce 1080Ti
This is very cool work. I'm a radiologist, I also work on developing ML/AI based systems for cancer detection and characterization. Literally just took a break for a few minutes from creating some labels and saw this as the top HN post!

I think in some ways making the model available online can be good, but in other ways could be harmful too. Very complicated topic.

恭喜coolwulf, 祝你继续成功。

themantalope··on Ask HN: Who wants to collaborate?
I’m working on an app to help people figure out what’s wrong with dicom files. Building with AWS amplify and AWS lambdas. Not open source but would love to find someone who knows react!
themantalope··on Happy New Year HN! What are your plans for the new year?
1. Finish pilot #1 for my startup, start pilot #2

2. Publish 2 papers

3. Go through all board prep material (one pass before 2023)

4. Eat less dairy (cut meat out last year)

[edit for formatting]

themantalope··on Chiropractors are bullshit
The current recommendation for LBP is to not treat, unless they have long-standing radiculopathy.
themantalope··on Ask HN: I don't want to be a founder anymore
OP, sounds like youre experiencing some real burnout. It's OK, it happens to a lot of people. Couple things to think about.

1) Are there ways you can keep going but change something to help? Going to see a therapist? Taking a short break? Talking about what's going on with your family? When you're stressed it's hard to remember all the support structures out there.

2) You need to ask yourself what is it worth to stay where you are (from a financial point of view). Is it worth a big payout in a few months to a year? Getting acquired is a good way to earn a big pile of FU money quick - and that will buy you all the time to relax and recoup that you need.

Do what you need to do to get better, and dont trash what youve worked hard to build! You can do it! Hope to see you post your success story a few months/years from now!

themantalope··on The Dark Side of Doctoring
It really depends. Some are completely salaried positions. Some physicians are completely private so what they earn is directly tied to how much they work. Even those who are salaried often have some kind of compensation or bonus for extra work. And even if they are salaried, having physicians type notes is not making the best use of their training and time.
themantalope··on The Dark Side of Doctoring
>It is wasteful to pay him a doctor's salary to answer phones.

This is something I don't understand. I'm a medical student, and the amount of time I've seen wasted watching older physicians type notes is staggering. Just have them dictate the notes and hire a secretary. Perhaps for legal/liability reasons doctors need to write their own notes but it's just such a waste of time, and we pay a lot for it.

themantalope··on The Dark Side of Doctoring
I'm a medical student at a top 20 allopathic school in the U.S. This article resonated with me.

I think the part that struck me the most was his comments about time. I have diverse academic interests. I studied math and bio in undergrad. I love machine learning and software development (esp python). I lived in China to study the language for a year. All that gets sucked out of medical school though. We are expected to learn a ton of material in the first two years. Then in the second two years, we are basically working a full time job in the hospital/clinics while also studying. We are constantly evaluated. We are also expected to do research and publish papers. I've forgotten what a guilt-free day off feels like.

themantalope··on Ask HN: Want to See My YC S2017 Application?
Woo! Glad to see the hometown getting some love.
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