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My realist mind wonders what kind of risk assessment and oversight is being done on Citadel's side considering they are a 'strategic' target underpinning the US economy in many respects.

Its a nice paid piece by Citadel, but really what do we know about what this person's contributions have been?

From what I've heard, you don't make it very far in China without going through some form of struggle session at some point.

The article doesn't even address the elephant in the room (which is China). Making this soft propaganda.

This line of thought makes one wonder if the word prodigy aptly describes his capabilities (or maybe its something else). This is all speculation of course, but it makes you wonder given how egregious China has been about violating sovereignty and laws lately.

I mean opening up a clandestine police station on US soil in NY for the purpose of going after Chinese dissidents and other US Citizens of Chinese descent? You can't be much more egregious in violating sovereignty.

What kind of risk is there to the financial system if Citadel, overnight, could no longer transact business because the keys of the kingdom were given to a prodigy to make money.

Sleeper agents are not an unknown thing in clandestine services. I seriously hope the guy was properly vetted for what its worth.

[Ref Link for NY Police Station](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/40-officers-china-s-national-...).

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-operating-illega...

There's some interesting reading about how the taxes should and should not work in the 5th book of the Wealth of Nations. Most copies only include the first 4 volumes.

While its not complete, you are somewhat limited in what you can do with the tax code incentives, and generational wealth or concentration into a Bourgeois caste is one of many issues that affect socialism more dramatically than our mixed system (though there still is an effect).

The inheritance tax is nonexistent. They kept it in entity vehicles until a law was passed excluding it then they dissolved the entities in a year where there were no tax implications (the entire amount was untaxed).

Fiat and debt have their own implications when the money printer runs above capacity. Have you seen the derivative exposure for banks listed at the FDIC website?

Some people find fun in ... Gotcha!

I think the odds are more likely that the economic cycle stalling as a result of firms using earlier non-generalized AI will likely cause a collapse before we actually make it to the point of generalized AI.

Its what's happened historically every time there is a shortfall in food security. Unrest occurs, people starve, governments fall. Then we have to build it all back up from scratch.

Too bad almost no one knows how to do bookmaking these days, and how to prevent the pests from eating the books.

This article's point of view is a contagion that lacks an understanding of the core threat to humanity and our collective future that these models actually pose.

We don't even need to get into AI doomsdays predictions.

Just look at what has happened every single time the economic cycle stalls in history. Economies runs in a loop. Workers get paid so they can buy goods. Employers pay workers so they can create goods to sell. Some of those goods are food.

What happens when workers can no longer buy goods (food) because 2/3 of the jobs are no longer offered, and you have to have high IQ and education for the final 1/3 left?

What happens anytime there is a shortfall in a countries food security needs, historically?

The greatest incentive of these models drives the loss of jobs, the economic cycle slows as a result, and wealth inequality increases until it stalls completely and our existing systems that allow us to feed half the planet break down. It is a slow but cascading failure like a dam.

This outcome is what the incentives from these models are driving us towards.

The actions the author promotes neglect historical evidence of how new technologies have been used when they were freely available to the masses.

These models effectively are a potentially infinitely scaled 'will' multiplier on any person using them, while they may be of limited use now; everything improves over time. These models are the same as a gun but on a much grander scale. There are extreme, disenfranchised and very bad people out there which the author minimizes and discount under personal responsibility (their choice). Not everyone is mature enough to ethically or responsibly use things, especially when the potentially destructive ends are so far reaching.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I have no intention of changing reality, it will be whatever its meant to, and I've a fairly firm grasp of it, and the underlying problems.

The way things are going people will end up killing themselves slowly through insanity because you and others don't see the fundamental problems barreling your way. By the time you notice; if you even notice, you won't be able to do anything about it. Most likely you won't notice since you've got psychological consistency working against you and you are closed to the problem.

God help's those that help themselves first, and then others when they can.

If you can't recognize a signal from noise (i.e. communication), you become isolated, isolation breaks our psychology, you become apathetic and complacent, or violent, and then that's it. This is true of every single human on the planet subjected to ongoing isolation. Once systems break down because we can't organize or communicate the systems that allow us to feed ourselves fail. Half the global population dies off from starvation, and that's just one of the more common problems coming our way as we approach the limits to growth (MIT study). Simple predator prey dynamics, when there are more mouths than food it returns to equilibrium.

I learned long ago to not stress over what I have no control over. Hopefully me and mine will survive this as we'll be preparing.

You can't say I didn't try to clue you into an important problem. Your glass is clearly full.

It was corruption and fraud, plain and simple, and all of the people involved should be in prison.

Dishonesty in this case is simple; its fraud, everyone knows how to deal with fraud even big business.

This is just propaganda meant to get people back to the office, poorly veiled propaganda at that.

If the person signed conflicting agreements and violated those agreements; its pretty clear what the lawyers will say to do. It will be one of those moments that seems like out of a sitcom, with a joke waiting but the response is more serious... "this is what we are going to do, you are lucky that is all we are going to do".

If the work gets done and you aren't in violation of agreements there is nothing wrong with working multiple jobs especially when as a CEO of a larger company you've participated in suppressing worker wages.

As several have mentioned this is a common symptom with ADHD, what no one has mentioned is it is also a common symptom from various types of heavy metal poisoning.

While I am not a doctor or a psychiatrist, you may want to speak with one to get an idea of various things you might do to help yourself.

I can tell you from experience, structuring your life is important when you drift. That means enforcing strong boundaries; creating a routine which you do not deviate from, and following a process methodically, and other things like meditating and visualizations can help. A lot of developing habits is simply to set a process and not give yourself the choice to deviate. After you've developed them (several months later) you can choose when you have the choice; i.e. there are conditions where you can reasonably give yourself a choice.

Its very hard to get properly tested for heavy metal poisoning because they can really only test for acute poisoning. Chronic poisoning commonly goes undiagnosed because the heavy metals get bound into your cells and out of your blood so quickly. Literally, to test for heavy metals the doctor needs to cause acute poisoning by using a chelator. As far as I'm aware that is still the case.

Common avenues for heavy metals are lead paint, arsenic in contaminated water, and mercury from silver dental amalgams (50% by weight; it leaches from acidic foods).

If you've had any of the following symptoms, its more likely this is poisoning than anything else.

Mercury: Tremors, Emotional changes (such as mood swings, irritability, nervousness, excessive shyness); Insomnia; Neuromuscular changes (such as weakness, muscle atrophy, twitching); Headaches; Disturbances in sensations; Changes in nerve responses; and/or Poor performance on tests of mental function; Brain fog; Skin rashes and dermatitis; .

Lead: stomach cramps, constipation, muscle/joint pain, trouble sleeping, fatigue, irritability, and loss of sex drive

Arsenic: Has quite a lot see below. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/arsenic

I use the classical and only legitimate definition of bitrot.

Any other instance using that term is merely a corruption of language meant to mislead and confuse, and make communication harder if not impossible.

Its hard enough communicating technical issues without people corrupting the language used to do it. Bitrot has nothing to do with program design and deprecation.

Spooky action at a distance?

Kidding aside, no one knows what exactly we do differently that allows for complex thought, context switching, or conflict resolution that works around those aforementioned problems.

This will never work, fundamentally any computer is unable to solve certain types of problems. They run into several different core computer science problems when you try to have them do this.

There is the halting problem and the decidability problems. You can approximate certain things using a perceptron/neuron floating point configuration, but they are only approximates; and do nothing towards addressing either of those problems.

Its hard to argue with true.

While there is a small amount of uncertainty, since the future is uncertain, that uncertainty continually decreases as you approach a point of no return.

Companies have propagandized this to protect profits following the MIT Study "Limits to Growth", under the business as usual.

While that doesn't mean we'll all die in this doom scenario, fatalistic as it is, there likely will be a lot of death ahead of us because of failures to act at a time when such action could have been much more moderate. Exponential curves are a bitch.

That's not necessarily true. Bitrot and bit flipping is pernicious and largely silent, while it affects source code less than object code, its still an issue regardless of the language medium.

The goal need not match up with CCP, this is a red herring, there are many other actors in this space each with their own goals using the same or similar methodology and practices.

I must mention that overgeneralizing is a form of flawed reasoning and must be guarded against, also simply saying its the algorithm neglects the fact that people had to design and approve the algorithm which included their intentions that went into that. That statement tacitly absolves responsibility for actions done in bringing it to market.

None of this would be possible to this degree if there wasn't a many to one platform of fake people where a monolithic entity can determine how much certain subjects people get exposed to and talk about.

Communication is a fundamental part of human identity, and distorting process leads to issues from reflected appraisal.

Here's the link. The pdf link is on the left side about a quarter of the way down.

I appreciated it as an interesting read because it takes a here's what happened, here's what we were seeing. This is what was happening based on other information we have available, and historically what we know to be true about the doctrine they are following with real examples.

Compared to other material where you have to critically evaluate and parse doublespeak, and other tautological traps, on a paragraph by paragraph basis; the book in comparison gets pretty straight to the point, and its gratuitous use of references (& footnotes) to support what is said is a sign of any well researched, and rational document.

https://www.usmcu.edu/Outreach/Marine-Corps-University-Press...

While I agree with some of what you say, with respect, that latter part I think you've fallen into a flawed association trap through the use of corrupted language.

Anyone that's educated in this area knows just because someone says something is true, it doesn't make it so, and discussing that wasn't even part of the comment so you are getting into the weeds.

For your own edifice, can you (for yourself) tell what are the differences between socialism, communism, fascism and fabianism; and which ones are mutually exclusive? A google search surface view won't be much help with answering that; best resource is historical texts and essays.

To me, you seem to have mixed objectives or have been seriously misled. You claim its new, but this in fact is a very old 'baddie' wrapped up in new clothing.

More than likely its intentional.

One of the main reasons TikTok has been grilled by congress is because of China's stance and willingness to violate any law for their own benefit.

One of those benefits not very commonly understood in America by the general populace is Political Warfare, which China calls the destruction of national will in their own documentation.

The USMC University has an ebook that is freely available that describes what is done, why its important, and its effects. It is a worthwhile read, if you do further research on this know that Bezmenov is not credible; there are much more credible sources, that's not to say what he says is necessarily incorrect, the best deceit weaves truth into lies.

The general gist is they seek to put people into a psychological state of demoralization, in that state you typically polarize into two separate groups.

Apathetic and complacent where you don't react to anything, and the other where you lash out at anything that you perceive or triggers you (through psychological anchoring [using NLP vocabulary], and various form of isolation). The conflict between these three groups (apathetic, violent, rational) allows a smaller number of people to seize power in a destabilization event which is a regime change playbook that most governments have used at one point or another. Historically, the last stage of that playbook involves getting back to a new normal by consolidating, and eliminating detractors (those people that lashed out).

Its subtle, and deceitful, but certain things you just can't give others the benefit of the doubt. Existential threats to your individual identity (which is what's often targeted during propaganda, and political warfare efforts), are one of those things. If its present, the source isn't credible and shouldn't be used regardless of what they say.

P.S. There's also a lawsuit from a TikTok insider that just made headlines recently disclosing how code was in the app to allow CCP backdoor access to US data and amplify or de-amplify narratives according to Communist core values. If there was any question about TikTok's credibility and their narrative that they don't do this; that pretty much seals the deal given everything else assuming of course what was said is factually correct.

They clearly would not have credibility, which would eliminate them as a potential choice in any risk management analysis you might need to do.

[Link]: https://www.businessinsider.com/new-lawsuit-alleges-tiktok-o...

The people involved should go to prison. This is no less of an offense than corruption by judges, or other public official. It may be one step removed, but if you don't make an example out of companies and the people involved, this will keep happening as a tacit agreement that its ok, and it isn't.

They don't have much of an argument, a lot of their material is full of doublespeak narratives, and watered down information. Characteristics which any computer will fail at utilizing properly.

I used 'sugar' for a reason, comparing it to potato chips is an apples to oranges comparison. We are talking about addiction, and how the brain at young ages can't really perceive or moderate highly addictive behaviors.

Sugar is provably addictive and has been compared to cocaine, heroin, and other opioids for the flood of dopamine it causes.

Those optimized foods you refer to often simply have a lot of sugar processed into them.

I deploy VOIP solutions professionally as a System Admin/Engineer, I happen to see all the problems that you haven't yet noticed.

Reliability wise, I'm talking about messaging improperly handling timestamps, not sending messages but saying their sent, and silently discarding messages sent to you. Timestamps and other dated items are necessary for non-repudiation; or proving to a specific level that is acceptable as evidence in a court of law (to hold business accountable).

I've seen messaging apps, text messages (which are a messaging app), not display errors and silently update fields later or disappear the messages when compared with a separate device on the same network. You only see it if you happen to have equipment to monitor what the baseband modem is sending and it fails at the cell tower (which may not be official). Phone providers open a ticket, then auto-close them within 30 days without resolution.

The way these systems work, there's heavy coding theory so if a transmission fails, it gets resent. Its not a result of interference but of failures at infrastructure nodes.

So what might happen to the relationships in your life if you stop getting messages from your friends, and from their perspective they stop getting messages from you. You miss things because you don't know about them. You think they'll be your friends long? If they aren't having the same issue, do you think they'll believe you when you notice it without provable times just on your say so, and they discount date and timestamps since they get updated?

If someone did that maliciously to isolate you, you wouldn't know and wouldn't be able to do anything about it. People would look at you like you were crazy. You do it long enough and isolation does interesting things to your psychology, and if your thinking there's no reason for someone to target you like that, you would be wrong.

Political warfare, or the destruction of the national will, in part involves priming people's psychology so they polarize into groups that are complacent (don't respond), or lash out at anything they see as remotely triggering (similar to your attachment to a cell phone). This allows a smaller group during a destabilization event to seize power; historically.

There's a great book published and freely available on the USMC University website about political warfare and what it exactly entails. Bezmenov isn't that reliable.

GDPR and DSA are only reactive. What happens when the violators are moving targets (nefarious non-business).

Your email provider has access to read, and more importantly prevent you from sending email to others. Preventing communication without alerting the sender is how this is weaponized.

WhatsApp regularly uses your microphone in the background; maybe its location finding from your local power hum (50/60hz) did you agree to that or did they update the terms after the fact and continued use is acceptance?.

All these things happen regularly. The fact that you think they don't happen, and have discounted it so completely and are so attached to a device that literally can make you go crazy under the right causable circumstances looks like an addiction spiral to me or impossible levels of extreme ignorance about how you are manipulated on a daily basis (sheep-le) with no real thought because thought requires risking being wrong to learn what's right.

A non-attached person would simply say, I go with what works and leave it at that, and take a critical eye towards reliable methods being deprecated. It certainly appears you are attached whether you know it or not.

Honestly, this sounds more and more like an association trigger and addiction seeking behavior.

You may want to: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/how-an-addicted-brain-work...

Additionally, each one of those apps has nearly full access to all your private information. Accurint goes out of their way to get most data about people.

That entire ecosystem lacks adversarial review. Additionally, coercively forcing you to only use those apps while removing more reliable methods for interacting is just one more way they can monetize you. You've got a rough road ahead.

There's a lot of supporting material about addiction and young adults. Social media is just one avenue or road on a path of thousands at your fingertips.

You don't control it, the phone manufacturer and the app makers do. You may be shown something, it looks like fun, and then wastes hours, days, or months, on a simple dopamine 'loop' that's been designed (Octalysis Framework). You may spend a lot of money on worthless digital assets in the moment. Loot boxes for example.

When you are younger than on average 10 or 11, most children can't comprehend lying, deception, or deceit. They naturally separate people into two groups, the kids, and the adults because adults lie and can be deceptive but aside from that its not something the kids perceive clearly, and that's a biological developmental issue as well.

Its largely referred to as the age of reason, when you can start thinking critically and being able to recognize and tell lies is an important brain development. Incidentally what you are taught before and during that time is often accepted as true even if its not, and may be accepted as a true belief. Its hard work re-examining things critically that you thought were true but were actually lies (of omission or comission) designed to get you to think and behave in a certain way.

Now the ages differ individually, but for the most part there is always a period of time where you are vulnerable and have cognitive biases and blindspots, which is why it is important to have friends in different age groups, so they can point out things you don't notice. Some blind-spots never go away, and its a process of building up an association in those cases of some thing that triggers you to examine it critically.

Addiction is similar, you are mostly blind to it perceptually up until the part of the brain develops that helps moderate it, usually in your late teens, early 20s. That's strictly biology and varies to some degree but remains true.

Its still something that is very hard to do, but you are capable of doing that once the area in your brain develops.

For confirmation, you might look no further than objective observations about your and others behaviors to highly processed sugar treats. If your parents didn't stop you, would you be able to choose and have only 1-2 servings of your favorite sugar snack? or if left alone would you go through a long process of rationalizing just one more and before you know it the entire bag is gone. Even adults do this, but there's a variance in adults; there's very little variance in developmental stages.

Barring some excruciating/traumatic past experience, you would not be able to stop yourself. You would make yourself sick, because it tastes so good going down.

Also, phones are a leash. I know many parents who are perfectly fine instilling an omniscient presence via a spyware app that lets them track you everywhere you go, and punish you when they think you break a rule. My cousin got the brunt of this growing up, and would have his car taken away from him when the average speed would go above a certain threshold (and poor technical implementations in certain places bounce between several towers, so when you travel in an area your almost guaranteed to set off an alert). He got punished numerous times until he got the idea to take a drive, with them, in the car through that area (going the speed limit) to do something. They only believed him after he did that a large number of times, where the alert was setting off.

Anecdotally, fun fact, anyone with an antenna can actually do location finding like that. Its called trilateration, you learn about it when you start working with Ham Radio, and the requirements are almost nothing just need an adjustable dipole antenna ($15) and a SDR/modulator.

Some of the data might be encrypted, but IMEI number and a few other things are not and make you pretty uniquely identifiable over time. There are companies that aggregate this information regularly, and some non-companies that may use it for nefarious purposes (i.e. scam phone calling, deep fake etc). Risks are only increasing, if the experts can't keep up with the pace of trends, what hope do you have.

There really isn't much to debate.

Kids are developmentally unable to cope with addiction.

Even adults have a hard time, with training, support, and wasted life experience with regard to online gaming. They may move past that addiction, but never really get over it.

Current times are just the flashpoint where parents and schools have largely abandoned their core responsibilities.

> That potentially blunts the impact of low birth rates...

Not at all, society literally breaks down if that is the case because those services would displace 2/3 of the work out there.

Hungry people riot, unrest ensues, and most people have been taught (as a core identity) that if you work hard you will be better off and have a good future for yourself and your children. Those core identity promises being recognized as lies would drive a mass movement of mostly irrational people. You then get the law of reverse effect (psychology) driving this. Who is responsible, who is to blame.

Someone will always have that answer and it need not be true because at that point they won't care.

Also, at 2/3 the population, you are also dealing with intelligent irrationality, a misnomer but the potential risks from that group are much higher, complex, and more costly.

Intelligence is speed and planning.

Its pretty clear to anyone that nothing provided even culminates in a first step towards a solution. Nothing about risk management, the communication minimizes risk threat, nothing about the fundamental limitations of computation or the decidability problem.

It regurgitates in circles, and communication is the conveying of meaning. This clearly isn't communication because it doesn't understand.

If you didn't know any better you'd let it control a train with tracks running right over a cliff, with you on it going at full speed and when you see it and ask about the threat it would say:

I understand the challenges and potential consequences of getting it wrong, and it is important to continue researching and refining this to address these concerns. <HAL?> The intention is to encourage an overall shift in mindset towards long-term thinking and resource preservation Dave. Considering these perspectives and having an open dialogue about them can help us collectively. <as you fall> I appreciate your valuable insights and the opportunity to engage in this discussion.

The problem with GPT in general is it lacks any understanding of what its saying. It sounds plausible if you don't have the background, simply because its been trained on a vast corpus of material. It hallucinates (lies) too.

When you talk about decentralized decisions, its all fine to generalize that, but what does that actually mean. It means different things to different people in a very complex unmapped system. Simply doing what it says ignores a great number of outcomes, and will fail when being adopted in any highly concentrated business sector. Failure can mean a lot of things, but when dealing with existential issues, it means death because that is what's on the line.

UBI will also fail, because you don't know what you need to do until the time to make that decision has already come to pass. Liquidity freezes up if theres too little currency, and inflation runs rampant if there's too much. That's the nature of a lagging indicator.

There are also further deviations that are unpredictable, and they end in shortages (i.e. a traffic accident causes a shipment to be lost).

Shortages of electronics not a big deal. A 1-month shortage of food will wipe out most countries. People don't sit by and starve.

Technological advancements (aka using computers) will never be able to correctly identify different outputs from the same inputs. Its called the decidability problem. Computers rely upon problems having deterministic answers (fundamental computation, and automata theory). You can approximate some signals with non-determinism but you run into a whole host of other problems (i.e. halting).

Sustainability and resilience mean different things to different people. Same problem as the last point.

No you couldn't allocate resources 'correctly'. Anyone saying so hasn't read the literature, or understand the requirements for how computers actually work.

The math is impossible because not all information is available. You don't have future sight and the information you need to derive from is lagging. Its temporally bound to a point in time in the past.

Additionally, the process involves optimizing production from the production raw materials all the way to the end products. This includes knowing about and re-optimizing in the cases where something locally fails sometimes in the absence of people reporting it (non-deterministic).

In non-market systems, shortages cause death, and the only way to avoid shortages is to overproduce by a healthy margin, and even then that doesn't account for those unpredictable events (i.e. for example, like a shipping area catching fire and the nitrogen fertilizer blowing up in Beirut destroying all stored cargo nearby; who could have predicted that).

Anyone saying this is possible isn't a credible source. There is over 100 years of study into this problem by some of the best in their fields, and it remains unsolved.

They aren't there yet though.

Reminds me of the 2001 movie 'conspiracy' with how that all played out.

First you follow the vision, then when its untenable, and left you in a inescapable position, you redefine words and talk about what you aren't talking about.

Arguably you can't let robots take over a large portion of the jobs because rational pricing goes out the window, and you end up just like non-market socialist economies did at the turn of the last century. A lot of people generally get culled when food shortages occur.