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thablackbull

323 karma · joined May 8, 2017

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thablackbull··on Fewer young men are in the labor force, more are living at home
It would appear to be Serbia. His username is supposedly a reference to celebrity, "Vladan Aksentijević, better known by his stage name Ajs Nigrutin, is a Serbian rapper and actor."

From the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia[1], a quick glance at the Higher Education statistics would seem to indicate there are 32% more women.

[1] https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/oblasti/obrazovanje/visoko-obr...

thablackbull··on Geico data breach exposed customers’ driver’s license numbers
Internal retrocession is a normal practice in insurance companies. The larger entity can pool money and absorb losses better.
thablackbull··on Police in Minnesota round up journalists and take pictures of their faces
No, it's pretty much an American thing, you should learn a little American history. America has no problem killing its own citizens:

> That night, the city of Philadelphia dropped a satchel bomb, a demolition device typically used in combat, laced with Tovex and C-4 explosives on the MOVE organization, who were living in a West Philadelphia rowhome known to be occupied by men, women, and children. It went up in unextinguished flames.

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/8/8/20747198/philadel...

thablackbull··on The persecution of the Uyghurs is a crime against humanity
Yea, but it gets boring. Nobody is going to call for sanctions on America for anything and you'll never see a constant stream of articles for anything the US does.

When the US drops a record amount of bombs on a country[1] in a war people barely think about anymore and people barely blink an eye, is it really humans (lets not even talk about human rights yet), but rather just our fellow human beings, that people care about.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/28/us-afghanist...

thablackbull··on Independence, autonomy, and too many small teams
> Even though you have multiple small teams, they still need to closely coordinate with each other.

That's what a competent manager/management is for though.

thablackbull··on The FBI is secretly using Sabre as a global travel surveillance tool
"worse" perhaps based on whatever scale you're using.

Starting illegal wars and overthrowing governments to put in puppets tends to be quite atrocious, but I guess if you benefit from it, no problems then.

thablackbull··on Data Science: Reality Doesn't Meet Expectations
> Of course, the teacher knew this, gave bonus points to the ones who did start in time, and then extended the deadline as he had expected to from the start.

I think what he meant is they 'failed' to get it completed on time and it was meant as a teaching lesson.

thablackbull··on Singapore issues first correction order under 'fake news' law
Have you ever been to Singapore? It's hard to change views, but I'd like to leave this article with you [1]:

> For example, a friend (a German national currently working in Washington) referred off-handedly to Singapore as a “police state” in a recent personal email. (She has never been here.) [...] That’s not all that perplexes Americans and some other Westerners. Singapore is a “police state”? If so, well, where are the police? One hardly ever sees one, and one never sees a uniformed policeman on a beat on the street. There is no visible acute poverty here, no beggars on the street, no evidence of homelessness, no gun violence, no graffiti, and women can walk alone at all hours of the day and night anywhere on the island without having to worry about being accosted.

They say if you want to see a policeman, go to the malls and find one of the cardboard cutouts.

[1] https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/11/21/the-puzzle-...

thablackbull··on The Innocent Pleasure of Trespassing
> Indeed. Even the relatively harmless example of going up to a hotel floor to look at the view out of (I assume) the lift lobby is something that only works if you’re the only one doing it.

In Singapore, most people (80%) live in public housing. Some even have great views and allow the public to view as well, they just enforce quotas [1]. Thus, it seems to work as long as it was properly designed and intended to work that way - also helps that crime is virtually non-existent.

[1] http://www.pinnacleduxton.com.sg/Public.html

thablackbull··on Singapore to become first country banning ads on sugary drinks
When those start to have a noticeable impact on society, I'd imagine yes, they'd start to do something about it. Right now, diabetes is indeed a serious problem.

> The cost burden from diabetes, including medical expenses and productivity loss, is expected to rise from beyond $940 million in 2014 to $1.8 billion in 2050. The prevalence of diabetes among Singapore residents (Singapore citizens and permanent residents) has increased over the decade. [...] Table 2 shows that even after accounting for Singapore's ageing population, the prevalence of diabetes in Singapore (10.5 percent) is higher than the world's average (8.8 percent). Rising obesity is also a significant contributor to the rise in diabetes prevalence. [1]

> Diabetes is a serious health concern in Singapore. One in three Singaporeans is at risk of developing diabetes in their lifetime. [...] The Ministry of Health (MOH) launched a War on Diabetes (WoD) in 2016, in response to the significant health and societal burden posed by diabetes, and established the national Diabetes Prevention and Care Taskforce (“Taskforce”) to spearhead a whole-of-nation initiative to tackle diabetes. [2]

References:

[1] https://www.healthhub.sg/a-z/diseases-and-conditions/626/dia...

[2] https://www.ourcommons.ca/Content/Committee/421/HESA/Brief/B...

thablackbull··on China’s Millennials
> Now she is thinking of giving up the citizenship she worked so hard to get, and moving back to an authoritarian China where guns and drugs are strictly forbidden – at least her son would be safe.

> To quote a friend, "all 'authoritarian' states (really, all states) distribute their 'authoritarianism' unevenly. that you aren't experiencing any right now doesn't mean it isn't being done, it just means you're not part of the demographic being targeted."

Freedom is also not distributed evenly. The powerful can use freedom as a means to their ends all the while justifying everyone else's failures as their own choice since they had the 'freedom' to achieve the same for themselves. Just my 2 cents.

As a soon to be expat to Singapore, I am in agreement with the first quote. While I can understand the values and culture here, I am also not too fond of unfettered freedom where people think public infrastructure belongs to them rather than as a shared good that everyone has the responsibility to take care of. Furthermore, the immediate reaction to any government involvement as 'socialism/communism' to shut down a discussion is honestly quite tiring and annoying now.

thablackbull··on Africa Is Building an A.I. Industry That Doesn’t Look Like Silicon Valley
So what we've learned from this thread is:

* Chinese firms are hiring plenty of locals and not importing labor as commonly accused of from your own personal experience

* Chinese investments are investing plenty, even in AI, and not just extracting commodities

* By investing, Africans are building real skills and developing their own AI talent pool

Really makes you wonder why we here in America just ignore Africa.

thablackbull··on How U.S. Banks Took Over the World
Thanks for your response; I was mainly aggravated by OP's original post that's essentially propaganda with no backing evidence so commonly found on Reddit.

> however when they start to slip on payments they're offered relief in exchange for privatizing their resources and government services so capital around the world can extract rent.

Fair enough, but consider the following. China's infrastructure is also allowing Africa to expand and build their own ecosystems in fintech [1]. Furthermore, there is actually discussion about Africa leapfrogging in to green initiatives [2], "The paper uses examples of how China managed to improve initially polluting infrastructure to help Africa leapfrog directly into cleaner solutions."

Sure, I'll conceded the worries about network sovereignty, etc. But if you follow the data coming out of Africa, you'll see progress is really being made. Most people making remarks like OP literally know nothing about Africa.

[1] https://www.brinknews.com/fintech-in-sub-saharan-africa-a-po... [2] https://saiia.org.za/research/can-africa-build-greener-infra...

thablackbull··on How U.S. Banks Took Over the World
Think about what you're saying, not only are you saying people hope deals fail (when deals that succeed benefit both parties), but also disparaging other countries as being so inept they can't spot a bad deal.

The issues have been analyzed already:

From, [1], > First and foremost is the realization that actual asset seizures are a very rare occurrence. [...] Instead, we find those debt renegotiations usually involve a more balanced outcome between lender and borrower, ranging from extensions of loan terms and repayment deadlines to explicit refinancing, or partial or even total debt forgiveness (see Figure 1).

To address the Ski Lankan port issue, [2]: > Privatizing 70% of Hambantota to CM Ports for $1.1 billion was one way in which foreign exchange could be brought into the country, allowing a balance of payments crisis to be staved off. It was not an asset seizure.

[1] https://rhg.com/research/new-data-on-the-debt-trap-question/ [2] http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2019/07/did-china-seize-...

thablackbull··on Employers are mining the data their workers generate
In my experience working, my theory is the over emphasis of goal setting. Everyone has to be doing something, even if it is counterproductive. No one ever says, maybe take some time to sit back to take some time to think about the best way to approach something, it's always just do do do.
thablackbull··on Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency: Privacy and stability concerns
> Isn't it strange that the Chinese copied facebook, but now facebook copys WeChat

You've clearly never used WeChat if you're under the impression they copied Facebook. This "___ of the West" is just a simplified trope to help readers make a comparison. Western companies/apps fail in the East and Eastern apps often fail in the West as the market is completely different that you can't just port something over and hope to replicate its success.

https://hbr.org/2018/08/why-western-digital-firms-have-faile...

thablackbull··on The decline of the family has unleashed an epidemic of loneliness
If you're referring to societies that aren't ruled by men, The Mosuo people are a matriarchy that you may be interested in.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosuo

thablackbull··on Experiments find higher social class more likely to have inflated sense of skill
I don't think your anecdote is reflective at all.

On Youtube, Daily Driven Exotics is one of the largest automotive channels and I would suppose you would consider all the antics you see on that channel to be quite obnoxious. Plenty of Americans consider everything they see of that channel as "wow what a cool guy/car".

thablackbull··on RenTech Created the Ultimate, Tax-Free IRA Account for Employees
I'm not sure RenTech and Virtu are comparable though (although I'll admit I don't work in the industry, so correct me if I'm wrong), but based on the article from Matt Levine on his Bloomberg column "Why Do High Frequency Traders Never Lose Money?" [1]:

> Imagine how suspicious it would be if, for instance, your local supermarket made money on every carton of milk that it sold. That just seems too good to be true, doesn't it? How can they know the price of milk before you do? Shouldn't they be losing money on half of their milk, and making it on the other half, so that things balance out? Doesn't the fact that they always make money suggest that they're ripping you off? [...] That is, Virtu (like Goldman) is selling a product, and that product is liquidity, and it charges for that product. High-frequency trading firms are in the business of acting as middlemen, providing a valuable service by letting buyers and sellers trade as soon as they want to, rather than waiting for fundamental sellers/buyers to come in on the other side of the market.

As I understand it, RenTech is taking an investment position which is why the returns are remarkable whereas virtu is (as Levine puts it), selling liquidity.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2014-03-20/why-do...

thablackbull··on Madoff’s Victims Are Close to Getting Their $19B Back
I completely agree with you, but the parent's comment is saying that the very people who need to be protected are the very ones who don't want government involvement.

> Especially in a country like US where people don't like to be limited/controlled (read protected) by laws.

Not sure what a good solution is, but it's difficult to help those who don't want to be helped.

thablackbull··on China Rules – The Land That Failed to Fail
Not only that, the political rhetoric just massively overstates reality.

From PIIE [1],

> Overlooked are the data that suggest the popular narrative exaggerates the magnitude of China's forced technology transfer and theft and does not allow for the possibility that China's protection of intellectual property is improving rather than worsening. […] Since the subsidiaries of these holding companies using the licensed foreign technology are located in other jurisdictions worldwide, China probably ranks second globally in the magnitude of licensing fees paid for technology used within national borders.

From MMC's Brink [2]

> In the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s, Western firms such as Apple and Intel made large profits by investing in China to take advantage of the cheap labor, often at terrific human cost. As China’s economy grew and the population became wealthier, Western firms were then able to profit by selling their products back to the wealthier children of the same labor force that made them. The Chinese government saw this happening and wanted Western firms benefiting from the Chinese market to give something back. It established a system of approving foreign investments on the condition that the businesses involved agreed to partner with local firms and transfer knowledge and skills to the local Chinese market.

and [3]

> …Paul Goldstein, an IP expert at Stanford. Instead, it’s given away in negotiations with Chinese businesses, officials and investors.

[1] https://piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/china-forced-tec... [2] https://www.brinknews.com/why-china-is-a-leader-in-intellect... [3] https://www.brinknews.com/how-much-american-ip-is-china-stea...

thablackbull··on Why Japanese Whisky Is So Good and So Hard to Find
Funnily enough I was just reading, locust is apparently a reference to the evils of capitalism. From Bloomberg [1],

> Within hours of Heinrich Hiesinger stepping down as ThyssenKrupp AG chief executive last week amid pressure from activist investors, the talk turned to “locusts,” Germany’s catch-all term for the evils of Anglo-Saxon capitalism.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-10/hedge-fun...

thablackbull··on Opera Limited files for a $115M US IPO
You're probably well aware, but for those of who aren't, he moved on to Vivaldi.
thablackbull··on China is winning the global tech race
> but you have to also think whether he's biased in wanting to push the view that the next big tech hub is in China, because he's invested in the region.

He puts his money where his mouth is. I made another comment here that it was refreshing as it didn't predict the collapse of China which has been peddled for the past few decades by so-called experts - they could peddle any view they want with no financial repercussion.

Secondly, even if Moritz was biased and published this article for his own gains, it's not as if we (foreigners) have easy access to invest in the region.

> it's very hard to know what to believe, and even more effort to do research. Most people won't be doing it, so it's an effective method to generate hype.

I heartily agree with you here, but you have to admit for every article like this, there are 10x more about the imminent demise of China, so I don't buy the argument that this article's hype will override 'collapse' articles which generate much more clicks.

thablackbull··on China is winning the global tech race
> Articles like this are great for clicks on a website.

That may be true, but I do find it refreshing over the thousands of articles claiming that China would collapse over the past few decades (and yet, somehow these experts failed to predict the AFC, GFC, dot-com bubble,...). Surely you consider those click-bait as well.

thablackbull··on Ethiopia is now Africa's fastest growing economy
"China will cause the country to become indebted to it and when they can't make the repayments offer to helpfully take full control of it."

You honestly can't tell me you don't see that as a loaded statement...And based on your replies to other commentators, doesn't seem like you intended that either.

thablackbull··on Ethiopia is now Africa's fastest growing economy
It would be better if you could attempt to support your argument with data, analysis and research.

Is Ethiopia in a lot of debt trouble? From [1], figure 1.17, doesn't seem too troubling, especially when considering its growth rate.

Your assertion that China plans to overload countries with debt also seem to be based on the heavily promoted Sri Lanka story while ignoring any other data points. The Center for Growth Development has a report, [2], Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective. They find that for the 68 countries analyzed, only 8 are at risk. Your story also contradicts the many times China has provided debt relief.

> In countries suffering from debt distress, the Chinese government has provided debt relief in an ad hoc, case-by-case manner [...] The IMF estimates that China has delivered over 80 percent of what it is expected to provide under HIPC. It was a creditor to 31 of the 36 HIPC countries, and the most recent publicly available information indicates that it provided relief in at least 28 of them, including 100 percent forgiveness for several (e.g., Burundi, Afghanistan, and Guinea). […] China has also demonstrated a willingness to provide additional credit so a borrower can avoid default. A prominent example is China's agreement in early 2017 to extend an RMB 15 billion swap line to Mongolia for three years in support of an IMF Extended Fund Facility.

[1] African Economic outlook: https://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/african-econo...

[2] PDF Warning: https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/examining-debt-imp...

thablackbull··on Life expectancy in America has declined for two years in a row
So serious question, do you consider Trump as a legitimate government? As I understand it (non-American here), Trump won through the electoral college and most Americans do not support him.
thablackbull··on China's Silk Road Illusions
> I'm not sure who's hypothesizing that a modern country has to emulate the US.

I'm just going to focus on one element due to space; one of the core pillars of American economic thinking is the idea of free markets. Through bilateral relationships or organizations like the IMF, etc., developing nations are given a road-map of how to modernize. It may not have to be a carbon copy of America (and that was not my point), but there is certainly an element of shaping developing countries to accept American ideals. However, have you ever noticed that no country has ever modernized through free markets, it always required a lot of protectionism. [1], [2]

Free-markets is a big topic that the American government likes to complain about with regards to China. Ironically, Americans seem to think protectionism doesn't exist in America. "For example, from 2008 to 2016, the US implemented over 1,000 discriminatory trade policy measures, followed by India and Russia, with both implementing nearly 600 similar policies each. Trade-impeding measures have also increased at a much faster pace than measures to liberalize trade." [3], [4], [5]. A little hypocritical if you ask me.

> Many modern countries these days don't adopt the American system, but are striving towards being modern, pluralist democracies with functioning social systems, good governance, and sane judicial systems.

I'll assume you are contrasting with China, so I'll go point by point

* Modern: Just to reiterate, my previous spiel was that China views modernization as independent to other society structures. Their experience has proven that to be the case. Without a doubt, cities like Shenzhen are modern.

* Pluralist democracies with functioning social systems, good governance: Ultimately, the purpose of a democracy is to get the voices of citizens heard. Note that surveys show almost 90% of citizens in China are satisfied with their government while in the West, we are perpetually annoyed at them. Democracy is not a panacea for stability, success, etc.

* Sane judicial systems: That depends how you view it. In America, look at the amount of people locked up for minor drug crimes. I call that insane. In China, the law is more flexible and based on circumstances. "Despite the tough laws, authorities have usually turned a blind eye to farmers growing their own low-THC varieties because they were an important source of income for some farmers." [6] It's also important to note westerners and easterners look at the concept of Law very differently. "Easterners and Westerners have fundamentally different understandings of the nature of contracts. In the West, a contract is unalterable; in the East a contract is continually renegotiable in the light of changed circumstances (Hampden-Turner & Trompenaars, 1993). This drastic difference of view has often resulted in conflict and bitterness between Eastern and Western negotiators." [7]

[1] PDF Warning: http://ecdpm.org/wp-content/uploads/PMR-15-Politique-Develop... (pg 38 and in French)

[2] "...free market approaches have not proven to be 'very effective' in helping countries achieve this." http://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2017/oct/e...

[3] http://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2017/oct/e...

[4] Is China the Most Protectionist Country? No, Not By a Long Shot https://piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/china-most-prote...

[5] http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/blog/AllInfogra...

[6] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2108347/green...

[7] Richard Nisbett, Kaiping Peng, Incheol Choi, Ara Norenzayan - 2001 - Culture and Systems of Thought: Holistic vs. Analytic Cognition

thablackbull··on China's Silk Road Illusions
The problem I see is that politics in America has essentially devolved into merely 'entertainment' and not rooted in economic reality - so even if they wanted to, it is hard to make your proposal to the American public, especially with 'America first'. With respect to the Bannon comment, America has unequivocally benefited economically with China; it is merely how America has chosen to distribute the wealth that was the problem. [1],[2] How America chooses to distribute it's wealth has nothing to do with China.

> Although increasing trade with China might have contributed to the decline in demand for production workers, it clearly wasn't the primary force behind the trend. [3]

It is merely politically convenient to exclaim "China" when talking to the public like during the Zambian elections with Sata. "Michael Sata called Chinese “infesters” rather than “investors,” threatened to kick out Chinese workers, and pledged to implement foreign exchange controls that would prevent Chinese firms from repatriating their profits [...] One month later, Sata told the Chinese ambassador to Zambia and a group of Chinese businessmen, "My dear sisters and brothers from China, you are very welcomed in Zambia because we are all-weather friends." During a one-week visit to China in April 2013, Sata signed several investment agreements and requested that Chinese companies invest in railways, agriculture, and mining. On his return, he proudly announced to residents of a rural district that Chinese companies would develop Zambian wetlands for rice production." [4]

Same with American politics, we just shot nebulous words and concepts like, "Freedom", "democracy", etc. without understanding the underlying implications. The press highlights the any negative news about China, but how often do you hear things like this from American leadership in the mainstream media:

> “I want everybody playing in Africa,” President Obama stated during a press conference in South Africa in late June 2013. “The more, the merrier. I think that’s good. . . . It gives Africans leverage” to ensure that such economic interactions are “good for Africa.” [4] (pg. 106)

[1] https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/impact-ch... [2] https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/payoff-america-g... [3] https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/us-needs-invest-minds-not... [4] http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR521.html

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