352 karma · joined April 14, 2007
Humans drivers are a pretty glaring counterexample.
That's really disingenuous. There's no way to know for certain what the driver did or didn't see, but there are a lot more salient features for them to go by other than the white trailer, like the fact that the cabin has driven across the road or that the wheels of the trailer were square in the driver's lane. A much more likely explanation is that the autopilot set expectations too high, the driver was not paying attention (like in all the youtube videos of the system in action), and the autopilot failed and crashed into the truck.
It's pretty bad overall for net societal productivity. The main reasons this framework shows up so much is that (i) it's hard to really think through what kind of unique value one offers and to figure out how to leverage it, and (ii) it's tough psychologically to do something that doesn't optimize for the typical value function (prestige + income).
(i) they have convergence bounds, but in practice need more data than we have available
(ii) they don't do as well as EM usually, but using them to initialize parameters for EM sometimes does better than EM with random initialization schemes
(iii) it turns out variational methods can also be embarrassingly parallelized without losing much accuracy in practice
(iv) right now moment methods don't work for arbitrary graphical models