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sofixa

16,298 karma · joined November 6, 2018

https://atodorov.me
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sofixa··on The unbearable cheapness of open weight models
> own the app layer with their edge in reputation and powered by their infrastructure. Be apple where everyone else is Linux. Do design, coding, research, SMBs, legal, finance, healthcare and more (they are doing all of this).

The problem with this is that there are incumbents in all those spaces doing their own AI agents / platforms, and they're the ones choosing the models they use internally and they sell to their own customers. The margins and the possibility to fine tunie using open weight models, as well as the guarantee they'll keep running at predictable costs (no US orders yanking access), make them a very appealing option.

And if you're a company that needs an AI powered legal software, would you buy it from OpenAI/Anthropic, or from someone who you've already bought legal software from before and has the domain knowledge?

sofixa··on Steam Machine launches today
We do still have Chinese manufactured RAM available, it's just that it's DDR4 which is not compatible with a lot of the hardware made in the past years.
sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
> So what? You're claiming the alliance is irreparably broken, who cares about the text of a treaty

The alliance is broken, yes, and everyone is treating it as much. Kicking the US out, other than being impossible, will only piss off the petulant children.

> Did he invade Greenland? Bomb Canada? Those are the specific outrageous things he said that we're talking about here. As far as I can tell, he created his outrage and distractions there, and moved on

He was damn close to attacking Greenland, so much so that various European nations felt the need to send soldiers there to show they're commited to defending it. It doesn't matter that he didn't actually do the absurd.

> I don't think you get it, either: how long can you maintain that attitude without the irritant (the 80-year-old person that is Donald Trump)?

Geopolitical priorities and alignments take years to shift. So does military procurement. Once the US is no longer reliable, it will take years of reliability before there is a chance to mend the relationship.

> Also, you're acting all outraged, but present in your messages (but unacknowledged) are other and more tangible violations of trust, like European countries shirking their military spending commitments and letting their militaries decline to disrepair, because they expected the US to defend them forever for free.

I'm sorry, but that is just pure grade A American bullshit. It's insulting to everyone's intelligence to spout such nonsense. Various European countries spend to various extents. Nobody, is getting protection for "free". They're all pitching in to different levels (some like Poland, France, UK, definitely more than others). And the US was getting plenty in exchange, most notably bases to run their famous and intimidating logistics. The US definitely loses more out of losing those than European nations that have the British and French nuclear umbrellas if it push came to shove.

sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
> Trump says a lot of things. It's foolish to take every outrage seriously. It's pretty clear it's just a tactic of his (albeit a dumb one).

And he has also acted on a lot of the things he has said. It's foolish to ignore him.

> Ok, then. If you're serious: kick the US out of NATO. Increase military spending, go it alone. Really treat the US as a non-ally.

What? It's not possible to expell a country from NATO as per its charter. And European countries are increasing military spending, by and large buying, in that order, domestic, European, major NATO aligned suppliers (most notably South Korea), and the US only when there is no choice (so F-35 and munitions/replacements for existing systems). And of course this ignores that current European military capabilities are plenty for European strategic autonomy.

> Or, you know. Wait for him to leave office or die (he's 80!), and write the Democrats and tell them to get their fucking house in order. Trump didn't win so much as the Democrats were utterly incompetent.

I don't think you're getting it. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. The trust with the US is irreversibly broken and not getting repaired in the decades to come. The American political system is broken beyond repair, and even the opposition to the current wannabe fascist regime are not campaigning to change anything about it. This means that regardless of who's in power next, even if they're the best thing since sliced bread, there is no guarantee the following elections won't bring another bout of wannabe fascists threatening to invade their allies.

There is no going back from that without major political reform in the US and years to earn back trust. AKA not happening. Even the opposition, even the most radical opposition, venerate American political institutions as the works of deities that can only be slightly changed, not replaced wholesale. And, from the outside, the whole system - how elections are done (you need proportional representation, term limits, no janky districts), representative structures (flat two seat per state senate doesn't work anymore, house of representatives having skewed and fixed numbers doesn't either), judicial system (political appointments and elections, and for life appointments, do not work), supreme court (political appointments and for life appointments do not work), etc are overdue by decades for serious structural reforms.

sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
It doesn't matter, because people are adopting AI now, and even if the restrictions are lifted tomorrow, it has been proven that relying on an American SaaS is risky, because you can just lose access.

So why would you get that instead of self-hosting Mistral Studio and fine tuning for your needs? Or going fully DIY with e.g. OpenShift AI and open source Chinese models?

That way you fully control availability, costs and quality.

sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
No no, the remarks were pretty damn fucking serious.

And the fact that the US could elect such an unserious and demented criminal, twice is proof enough that there is a lot to worry about. Who's to say who will be next? Or after that?

sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
> Right now, this has become a risky decision that can tank my business overnight. If your business-critical systems rely on SAAS that doesn't have a solid SLA and breach-of-contract provisions that more than cover the damages in the event, you've made "a risky decision that can tank [your] business overnight".

I'm pretty sure that a US government export restriction / ban / etc. would count as a force majeure invalidating all the fancy wording you could wish for on a piece of paper.

The only way to actually control is to self manage in an environment you control.

sofixa··on Identity verification on Claude
> We’ve had export restrictions on different chips and even cryptography software in the past.

But not on a SaaS whose continued availability you'd rely on.

In any case, your optimism is bordering on naivety. The world has seen how the US can easily disregard anything and act arbitrarily - sanctions, tariffs, shutting down access to SaaSes - and this will not be forgotten. As you say, administrations change. Even if next time around there are competent adults in the White House (which really isn't a given), do you really want to bet your business on that not changing 4 years later?

There's a reason why all the big cloud providers are constantly shouting about their "sovereign" solutions. The US has broken everyone's trust and there is no going back on that.

sofixa··on Sakana Fugu
> Not while the hardware required to run a local model at an acceptable speed costs way more than $200

It's $200/month. You have to take into account energy costs and all the rest of a system, but if you break even within 1-2 years ($2400-$4800) it'd be a pretty good deal. And $4000 buys you a pretty decent system.

sofixa··on Sakana Fugu
The Sony WH-1000XM series and the Bose QC35 were the standard quality headphones years before AirPods were a thing, and both retailed at $300+.
sofixa··on The rise of South Korea’s weapons business
That's not true, they even sell in direct competition with the US (MLRS systems or tanks to Poland)
sofixa··on Temporary Cloudflare accounts for AI agents
Not the OP, but for me it's a simple matter of not wanting to use typescript and the whole swamp on fire that is NPM.
sofixa··on Temporary Cloudflare accounts for AI agents
Never going to happen at such a platform.

They prefer waiving the occasional DDoS / misconfiguration over giving their customers to cause outages with something so trivially forgotten about and so disconnected from the tech and actual platform.

sofixa··on Tesco moving 40k server workloads off VMware amid Broadcom's abusive conduct
Okay, but that's not at all what this thread is about? We're talking about having a VM intermediary between containers and bare metal. Not applicable to cases where you don't have containers because your workloads aren't fit for them.
sofixa··on Tesco moving 40k server workloads off VMware amid Broadcom's abusive conduct
I'm not sure I follow. Ideally your bare metal machines have an easy bare OS with some config that is easy to repave, and are ephemeral-ish (not a lot of state).

Your "machine for testing" would be a container. Decommissioning a container is easy. Decommissioning a physical machine only happens when it's obsolete.

sofixa··on Tesco moving 40k server workloads off VMware amid Broadcom's abusive conduct
> It’s being able to over provision, dynamically reallocate hardware resources, or do things like live migration and entire system snapshots. That hardware/system management aspect is what VM’s give you and containers don’t.

None of those matter in the slightest with containers. Why would you need to reallocate hardware resources when the containers can run on another piece of hardware? You would snapshot the relevant storage, not the whole OS and kitchen sink.

VMs as an intermediary between hardware and containers is just a waste of resources - both directly (RAM, CPU, storage to run a useless OS with no benefit) and indirectly (all of those VM's OS needs maintaining and patching).

It's basically a hold over from the olden days of "everything is a VM".

sofixa··on Tesco moving 40k server workloads off VMware amid Broadcom's abusive conduct
> More than half of the workloads we see being migrated are Windows. Many more are odd/ancient RHEL versions running some very specific software where the manufacturer won't offer a newer version / went out of business / the guy who set it up left and no one knows how it's configured / it works and we never want to touch it again.

And number of those has nowhere to go but down too. There is no growth in either of those, because everyone who will at some point try to get rid of them. Not all, not immediately, but the ultimate trajectory is down.

sofixa··on Tesco moving 40k server workloads off VMware amid Broadcom's abusive conduct
> I know plenty of Enterprise customers who cannot move easily and just renewed 3 year VMware licenses for their cluster at insane rates

Also known as incompetence. Broadcom's business model is public. Their plans for VMware were public from when the acquisition was announced.

Those companies had years to plan how to get rid of everything VMware. Instead they paid through the nose to postpone the inevitable for a few years.

sofixa··on U.S. science is in chaos
Why are you conflating and equating "useful" with "sells for profit on the free market"?

There are many areas of research where profit is not a goal, and cannot be one. Understanding how and why climate changes is extremely important and useful, but cannot turn a profit. Researching different education methods, same. Hell, the researchers who won the 2024 Nobel prize in economics, who helped us understand how to build economically successful nations, something incredibly useful, cannot turn a profit with their research.

It's frankly absurd to expect everything useful to be profitable.

sofixa··on How Madrid built its metro cheaply (2024)
The price difference isn't 2 or 3 times though. We're talking about x10 easily.
sofixa··on Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau
> For example, I'd love to see the source for this one.

How do I prove the lack of something? Prove there have been any Russian military exports.

What you're missing with the polls is "if there are Western military guarantees". That is not something russia is actually proposing, or would ever agree to. So it's a moot question, because it's not reflective of reality. When you look at what russia actually proposes, the majority of Ukrainians are against that.

sofixa··on Anthropic flies staff to D.C. to clean up White House fight
It's not "AI light bulbs", the point is to use smart meters for load shedding and load rearranging. Why wouldn't you want for people and companies to be able to use cheaper electricity in off-peak hours?
sofixa··on Show HN: Trace – Offline Mac meeting transcripts you can flag mid-call
Why not? You can run Google Meet, Zoom, Teams in the browser, including screen sharing with audio sharing. The browser APIs are there (e.g. https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/API/Screen_Capt...).
sofixa··on Show HN: Trace – Offline Mac meeting transcripts you can flag mid-call
> Wait really? I honestly would have thought this was a solved problem by now, especially high quality transcriptions bit, just out of curiosity, is the problem that the quality isn't high enough?

If I had to guess, all of those apps are probably vibecoded, hence the variable quality.

sofixa··on Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau
Since your other comment got rightfully flagged, I'll respond to you here.

The numbers from 2024 are reflective of the complete disappearance of russia from global markets. For instance, there have been no military procurement deals after 2023, only deliveries of previously ordered stuff.

The poorly hidden debt crisis is within the regions paying the death and recruitment bonuses, and the military contractors forced to sell at a loss and being propped up by state backed loans (one went bankrupt recently). Neither of those show up on official state debt numbers, but are unquestionably a problem for the state budget to fix. The one where 50% is being wasted to achieve nothing in Ukraine. At the best of times there are a few kilometres here and there, but even that is over now.

Ukrainians still unequivocally support keeping the war until russia agrees to leave them the fuck alone, and they get security guarantees (if you think you have polls saying otherwise, look again in the questions and answers, a tiny majority are ready to surrender Eastern Ukraine to end the war now, but practically nobody is willing to do so without guarantees). Those are achievable objectives. On the other side the leadership cannot admit defeat or they'll get toppled, and has no hope of achieving anything they could spin as a victory. So they keep wasting human lives to prolong the inevitable defeat.

sofixa··on Codex for open source
> I wonder if open source licenses will start to include "not to be used for LLM training" clauses

As if the LLM trainers would care. They've ignored every single license and copyright policy out there because "fair transformative use". It's undergoing litigation in various jurisdictions, and the chaotic side of me really wants to see what happens if a UK or California decide that training an LLM on pirated copyrighted material is not fair use, and the rights holders have to be compensated.

sofixa··on Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau
The numbers since 2022 are to be taken with a bucket of salt.

And it's undeniable that the whole country is falling backwards - the economy is in tatters with high inflation, high interest rates , severe economic and kinetic damage to the main revenue generating activities (export of oil, gas, raw materials, military equipment), a poorly hidden ballooning debt crisis. And worst of all, a leader who cannot admit defeat so can't get the country out of the quagmire. So things will get a whole lot worse before there's any chance of them getting better.

sofixa··on Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models
I mean, there is no nuance to be found here. Let's call a spade a spade.
sofixa··on Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models
> I would say that this government "takedown" of Mythos is great free advertising

This only works if you are American and think only about Americans and American companies. Which may or not be the case for Anthropic, and for sure is the case for the US government.

Because from across the pond, this is indeed free marketing... For Mistral and the Chinese open weight models and all the companies that sell them / fine tune and sell them. Who would ever trust their developer productivity / business process automation / support chatbot / whatever on models and providers that can be yanked with no notice?

The morale of the story is, you'd be dumb to rely on any LLM you don't run yourself in your own environnement. Reliability and predictability (including of costs) matter more than quality and features, especially when you can compensate for the quality with fine tuning.

sofixa··on Noise infusion banned from statistical products published by Census Bureau
Iran, Haiti, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, Argentina have been at the "worse and worse" stages for decades and there is no "better" in sight.
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