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snewman

4,381 karma · joined January 14, 2011

Repeat-offender entrepreneur; co-founded Writely (aka Google Docs), Scalyr, and others.

steve at snewman dot net

https://amistrongeryet.substack.com/ – AI blog https://climateer.substack.com/ – climate blog

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snewman··on The collapse of SVB exposes the largest crack in the economy
These bonds were supposed to be "safe" in the sense that they would be repaid on schedule. And that's been fine, AFAIK there is no suggestion that they won't be repaid.

The problem is that SVB, knowingly, took on "interest rate risk" by buying long-term bonds (average 6.2 years, I read) that lock in an interest rate. The money to purchase those bonds came from deposits, which can be withdrawn at any time. When everyone started withdrawing their money SVB had to sell the bonds, and they took a loss because interest rates have increased and the bonds they were selling were not longer worth as much.

snewman··on FDIC Takes over Silicon Valley Bank
1.5% of $80B is actually $1.2B
snewman··on Seawater electrolysis by adjusting the local reaction environment of a catalyst
There are many, many uses for green hydrogen unrelated to road vehicles. Long-term power storage (use cheap summertime solar to bank hydrogen for utility power in the winter), ammonia synthesis for fertilizer, replacing fossil fuels for high-temperature heat to drive industrial processes such as steel and cement production, possibly as fuel for long-haul shipping and aviation (either directly as hydrogen, or after conversion to other forms such as ammonia or hydrocarbons), etc.
snewman··on Lisa Source Code Release
I don't think we ever developed any software targeted at the Lisa (or if we did, it was in the brief period before I joined). We were always developing for the Mac, initially cross-compiling from Lisa.

We did move to Mac-based development after not too long. I have zero memory of why/how that happened, but I'm sure it was clear even at the time that the Mac was the more sustainable long-term platform (also the Lisas were insanely expensive). Still, for a while there it was a real stretch to squeeze a reasonable dev environment into Mac hardware. I remember – and this feels insane as I'm typing it, but it happened – at some point we actually paid someone to fab an add-on circuit board that we somehow glommed into our Macs (these were probably 512KB or 1MB models, I can't remember) that doubled the RAM size. The additional RAM couldn't be used for normal applications, it somehow manifested as a RAM drive. We had one RAM drive in the add-on memory, a second RAM drive partitioned from the standard motherboard memory, and the rest of the standard memory was used to run dev tools and/or the application under test. Putting all of the source code into a RAM drive was necessary to make the development experience tolerable (I can't remember whether the concern was source code navigation, build times, or both... EDIT now that I think about it, it might have been the object code rather than the source code that needed to be on the RAM drive; or perhaps both).

Different times...

snewman··on Lisa Source Code Release
I can confirm this regarding Mac development. I was part of the team that built FullPaint (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FullPaint) back in 1985. We had just a few Lisas to work with, and they were considered sacred.

Testing code required copying it onto a floppy disk and popping it into a Mac. We probably would have been a lot more productive if any of us had ever heard the words "unit test". (We were a young team, everyone in their early 20s or even late teens.)

snewman··on Project Mage is an effort to build a power-user environment in Common Lisp
This (STEPS) sounds interesting, do you have a pointer? (It's not the easiest word to google...)
snewman··on Dedicated biomass is not a good idea
[Author here]

The LUIE figure we found for dedicated biomass is 580 m²/MWh/y: 580 square meters to generate one megawatt-hour per year. You multiplied this by hectares, meaning you multiplied area times area. If you want to determine the amount of energy you can produce from a given area (e.g. 1 billion hectares), you need to divide by 580, not multiply by 580.

snewman··on Dedicated biomass is not a good idea
> Maybe we could grow corn for food, but cram the stalks into the generator and sequester the remaining carbon?

This is a thing; it's called "BECCS". You can also sequester the carbon without trying to burn it first; see, for instance, https://charmindustrial.com/.

snewman··on Dedicated biomass is not a good idea
> woody biomass isn't coming from clear cutting forests, its from necessary thinning to keep forests healthy

From what I've seen, claims to this effect often turn out to be false. For instance, from https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/a-little-xmas-cheer-for-...:

> ...the world’s largest supplier of wood pellets for power generation ... has long insisted that it doesn’t use big, whole trees, but only uses wood waste, “tops, limbs, thinnings, and/or low-value smaller trees.” It insists it only sources wood from areas where trees will be regrown, and that it doesn’t contribute to deforestation.

> As it turns out, Mongabay reporter Justin Catanoso found a management whistleblower who pointed him in the direction of clearcuts that the company was making: Catanoso watched as a feller-buncher machine grappled down a fifty-acre forest and fed the old oaks straight into a chipper, producing tons of wood to be turned into pellets. The whistleblower said that was par for the course: “We take giant, whole trees. We don’t care where they come from. The notion of sustainably managed forests is nonsense. We can’t get wood into the mills fast enough.”

> He continued: “The company says that we use mostly waste like branches, treetops and debris to make pellets. What a joke. We use 100% whole trees in our pellets. We hardly use any waste. Pellet density is critical. You get that from whole trees, not junk.”

snewman··on Tandem solar cell achieves 32.5 percent efficiency
They are not cheap after you factor in costs for installation, the framework, land, etc. Increased efficiency means you also need less of all those.
snewman··on Electrolyser development: 200 times less iridium needed
CO2 to hydrocarbon fuels (not ethanol, but methane and potentially liquid hydrocarbons as well) is exactly what Terraform Industries is planning to do.

https://terraformindustries.com/

snewman··on Why we’re pausing our Pay Later program
I'm not sure why I'm jumping in to defend interviews, but... this merely proves that interviews are not perfect at evaluating competency. Suppose that the result of a typical interview is X% determined by competency, and (100-X)% determined by other factors. It could be possible to provide a service that helps you quickly improve the "other factors". And yet if X is large enough, interviews might still be of some value for evaluating competency.
snewman··on Aleksandr Sorokin smashes 24-hour world record with 198.6 mile run
That makes a lot of sense. Intuitively (I haven't tried to run numbers on this), the big efficiency problem with a car – gas or EV – is not that it's using "unnatural" forms of power, it's that you're hauling a 3000 pound vehicle around with your 160 pound human. It's easy to believe that photovoltaic power -> modern battery -> electric motor is far more efficient than photosynthesis -> animal digestion -> human digestion -> human muscle. I wouldn't be shocked if that held up even on a vegan diet, though the difference would be a rounding error compared to the emissions from other aspects of our lives.
snewman··on Leak ruins NASA moon rocket launch bid; next try weeks away
A very good article here: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/years-after-shuttle-...
snewman··on Leak ruins NASA moon rocket launch bid; next try weeks away
Part of the issue is that this rocket doesn't just use hydrogen, it uses cryogenic liquid hydrogen, which apparently is even harder to manage. To quote from an excellent writeup [0]:

> Because it is so tiny, hydrogen can squeeze through the smallest of gaps. This is not so great a problem at ambient temperatures and pressures, but at super-chilled temperatures and high pressures, hydrogen easily oozes out of any available opening.

Elon Musk responded to this article with the following tweet [1], which to my understanding is a pretty reasonable take:

> Accurate assessment. Raptor design started out using H2, but switched to CH4. Latter is best combo of high efficiency & ease of operation imo. Delta-v difference between H2 & CH4 is small for most missions, because CH4 tank is much smaller & no insulation is needed.

[0] https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/years-after-shuttle-...

[1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1566233000458592256

snewman··on Leak ruins NASA moon rocket launch bid; next try weeks away
This is confused: water vapor is indeed a fairly potent greenhouse gas, but it remains in the atmosphere for only a short time. Adding water vapor to the atmosphere, even in large quantities, does not result in any non-rounding-error impact on climate.

See https://climateer.substack.com/i/60052576/you-thought-the-ma... for a slightly longer explanation.

snewman··on Leak ruins NASA moon rocket launch bid; next try weeks away
The lifetime of the launch abort battery is indeed a factor. It is normally rated for 20 days, and they extended the rating to 25 days for this launch, but when that time is up the entire vehicle stack does need to be rolled back to the VAB to access and (replace? recharge? retest?) the battery.

However, my understanding is that the current rollback is needed to address the hydrogen leak; they are not (quite) yet at the end of the rated battery lifetime.

snewman··on Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
Ah, fair. A single eruption will not perturb the long-term trend, but we're discussing the short-term incident in Pakistan, and a single eruption can have notable short-term impact. (I don't know anything about whether the specific eruption in question could have any impact on this specific crisis in Pakistan.)
snewman··on Why are Pakistan’s floods so extreme this year?
GP said "long-term climate trend" and then mentioned centuries. Yes, an especially large eruption can influence things for a year or two. But then the effect settles out.
snewman··on EV shipping is set to blow internal combustion engines out of the water
https://www.fleetzero.com/ is proposing to build electric ships and, yes, swap batteries. They build the batteries in the form factor of a shipping container, so existing port infrastructure can be used to perform the swap.
snewman··on Using satellites to uncover large methane emissions from landfills
Transitioning to sustainable electricity is necessary but not sufficient, we also need to address methane, cement and steel production, and a bunch of other things. Regarding the urgency of methane in particular: https://climateer.substack.com/p/aerosols
snewman··on Don’t call it a comeback: Java is still champ
I think it depends a lot on where you work and what sorts of projects you work on. I've been programming professionally in Java for the last 16 years and I have never encountered Spring. Nor do I typically see the stereotypical sort of FactoryFactoryManagerImpl complexity bloat. It is something you need to watch out for and steer clear of, in particular when selecting frameworks / libraries, but you can definitely live in the Java ecosystem without being pulled too far down this road. (The introduction of lambdas helped.)

(Those 16 years are four years at Google, 10 years in a pair of startups, now 1.5 years at a medium-sized acquirer.)

snewman··on In-browser retro-futuristic tank game, open source
Best I can recall, that was written by someone at Velocity (the publisher, as discussed by boffinAudio's sibling comment). No idea where to find it online.

I believe I still have an unopened boxed copy of the original game somewhere in the attic, I could break it out and scan it...

snewman··on In-browser retro-futuristic tank game, open source
Spectre co-author here. Neat to see this! The backstory of Spectre is that we wrote a straight-up Battlezone clone just as a hobby project, then decided that it was worth commercializing and so we fiddled around just enough to make it not be a copyright violation. It's influences all the way down. :-)

By complete coincidence, a friend of my co-author texted this photo from the Vintage Computer Festival today: https://photos.app.goo.gl/XTEUkjwtJb7nhQn7A

snewman··on Infineon chip flaws to disrupt IONIQ 5 EV production
Even with consistent supply, for a high value low weight item, ocean shipping does not make sense simply from a time value of money perspective. Also, it makes planning that much more difficult, you have to adjust orders that much farther in advance.
snewman··on Leaked memo reveals Amazon’s plans to combat the Teamsters in California
This is so exaggerated as to be silly. The cost of "things" has many components, and only a small fraction of them trace back to the hourly wage of low-paid domestic workers. Increasing low-end wages by 10% does not result in 10% additional inflation.
snewman··on FBI is hiding details about a raid on Americans’ safe deposit boxes
This glosses over a lot of important considerations. For instance: methane, despite having a limited lifetime, has much greater climate impact than CO2. So by converting some of the carbon they ingest into methane, cows add a substantial warming impact. Calorie for calorie, every serious analysis indicates that beef has very high greenhouse impact. Saying things like "bugs eat plants" is not a substitute for crunching the numbers.
snewman··on Iceland’s forest and bush cover has increased sixfold since 1990
We need to do many many many things. Halting the combustion of fossil fuels is absolutely #1 on the list, but it's a long list.

That initial sequestration can't make up for ongoing use of fossil fuels, sure, but it still has nonzero value.

snewman··on Saskatchewan, Ontario to roll out mini-nuclear reactors
Nice. Yeah, the numbers in press articles are basically always wrong; it's just a question of whether you can notice the error.

https://climateer.substack.com/p/numbers

snewman··on I finally understand methane lifetimes
[OP here] thank you! I see those ratios for 20 vs. 100 years everywhere, but I've never been able to put together a mental model that explains them. You've supplied the missing piece.
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