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smeeth

934 karma · joined November 13, 2019

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smeeth··on Ollama Turbo
Their FOSS local inference service didn't go anywhere.

This isn't Anaconda, they didn't do a bait and switch to screw their core users. It isn't sinful for devs to try and earn a living.

smeeth··on I'm dialing back my LLM usage
You don't need the analogy. If you have a tool that does a job for you your capacity to do the job degrades alongside other associated skills.

Tools that do many things and tools that do a small number of things are still tools.

> "do we really even need a body at all anymore?"

It's a legitimate question. What's so special about the body and why do we need to have one? Would life be better or worse without bodies?

Deep down I think everyone's answer has more to do with spirituality than anything else. There isn't a single objectively correct response.

smeeth··on I'm dialing back my LLM usage
It's worth noting this is the exact argument people used against adopting electric calculators.
smeeth··on The bitter lesson is coming for tokenization
The main limitation of tokenization is actually logical operations, including arithmetic. IIRC most of the poor performance of LLMs for math problems can be attributed to some very strange things that happen when you do math with tokens.

I'd like to see a math/logic bench appear for tokenization schemes that captures this. BPB/perplexity is fine, but its not everything.

smeeth··on Switching Pip to Uv in a Dockerized Flask / Django App
+1, this is the exact reason I started using uv. Extremely convenient.

For some reason uv pip has been very slow, however. Unsure why, might be my org doing weird network stuff.

smeeth··on Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?
I suspect its something to do with the following:

When humans get stuck solving problems they often go out to acquire new information so they can better address the barrier they encountered. This is hard to replicate in a training environment, I bet its hard to let an agent search google without contaminating your training sample.

smeeth··on Magistral — the first reasoning model by Mistral AI
They have a deal with Cerebras for inference.

https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/mistral-le-chat

smeeth··on xAI to pay telegram $300M to integrate Grok into the chat app
It did buy them a hell of a lot of marketing, Telegram has a billion users and those users are mostly in countries where Musk's brand isn't as toxic.
smeeth··on xAI to pay telegram $300M to integrate Grok into the chat app
I don't like Grok that much, but there's nothing particularly new or interesting about this deal. Telegram has a big international audience, it makes sense someone would pay to be the default for user adoption reasons.

"Feels oh so telling that Google has to pay Apple and not the other way around. If Google search was so great wouldn't we all be clamoring for it to be the default search in Safari?"

smeeth··on Google AI Ultra
I hate hate hate putting Deep Think behind a paywall. It's an ease-of-use tax. I fully expect to be able to get it over API through Poe or similar for way cheaper.

Just have usage limit tiers!

smeeth··on Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools
You wrote "culture." If you meant "politics," then write that. I'm not capable of reading your mind. Accusing me of projecting when you invoked "culture" to explain poverty in a state like Mississippi is hilarious. It's a common trope, you didn't question the accuracy of the connection, and if you'd used a different term I wouldn't have commented on it.

I encourage you to respond to the article and what people say, not what you think they believe. I've been a registered democrat my entire life, and I live in a red state. I don't need to "consider who is responsible" for policies, they're my neighbors and friends, and I have compassion for them even when I disagree with them or think their preferred policies hurt people.

smeeth··on Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools
It's truly remarkable how much compassion liberals purport to have for the poor before, apparently without any self-awareness, saying something like this.

> This article is advocating that using poverty-adjusted scores is a better way to assess student education levels. I just can't agree with that.

No, it's advocating that this is a better way of assessing the quality of the education they receive. And it is.

Rich kids in bad schools can score higher on tests than poor kids in good schools. If you want to isolate the quality of the schooling this is what you do.

> Pardon me, but 20% of your children living in poverty is my personal exact definition for an embarrassing cultural backwater.

First, this has nothing to do with the article, which is about education.

Second, perhaps without knowing it, you're spouting a classic white supremacist take: black people (there are much more in Alabama and Mississippi) are poor because they have a bad culture. If they just stopped sagging their pants and walking out on their kids like the good whites they'd be better off. Even if the intent was to direct this at the poor white people, it's still racist.

Perhaps you should consider that the people who live and struggle in other states are deserving of compassion, not derision. Yes, even if they believe different things from you, or have less money. Practice empathy.

smeeth··on Evolving OpenAI's Structure
They would do this if their mission was what you wish it was. But it isn't, so they won't.
smeeth··on Elon Musk is wrong about GDP
Not at all, even if there was snark intended I think its a fair question.

I resisted ranting about it (I hope you'll indulge me now), but in general I don't much like the economics commentariat. As best I can tell, "respectability" seems to mean something like "modal economic views + left of center politics." There are of course some exceptions, e.g. occasionally the economist or WSJ, but it leads to some notable blind spots.

For example, Switzerland experienced mild deflation in a good economy 2012-2017, but it wasn't until 2023 or so that articles started coming out that questioned where the 2% inflation target came from [0] and whether deflation could ever be a good thing [1]. This was despite respectable research from at least 2004 that explored the possibility of "good" deflation [2].

Tim, like many in the commentariat, was writing about inflation in 2019 [3]. The title of this essay is "Why inflation is good for us," and discusses the merits of inflation without any real discussion of cases where deflation could be good. At the end, he even raises the idea of a 4% rate target, which is a tad funny knowing the political mood on inflation 2021-24.

My point, really, is that I suspect I know most of his opinions without reading much of his work. He's hardly unique in that regard, but it bothers me. When looking for interesting opinions I'd probably look elsewhere.

[0] https://www.cfr.org/blog/history-and-future-federal-reserves...

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/111715/can-def...

[2] https://www.nber.org/papers/w10329

[3] https://timharford.com/2019/03/why-inflation-is-good-for-us/

smeeth··on Elon Musk is wrong about GDP
No (likely because American).

It's entirely possible my interpretation of his opinion of GDP is totally off, but that's what I gleaned from this single article. If I'm wrong, it's at least a bit his fault.

Do you have an opinion you'd like to share?

smeeth··on Elon Musk is wrong about GDP
I'm not going to argue that accounting is all kinds of messed up (totally is), but your comment isn't factually accurate.

> This is true, but it used to measure (or at least try to account for) decay in private companies.

No, the "G" in GDP stands for "Gross," which means before depreciation. Depreciation has long been estimated in NIPAs, but that's a separate slate of measures.

> (especially since our beloved MBAs invented 'future accounting', where expected ROI is added to the value of machinery in the books, truly a genius move by true sociopaths)

This isn't true either. You're describing valuation models, e.g. DCF, but these aren't used for accounting. GAAP doesn't have a concept of adding ROI to asset value.

It is very true that games are played with depreciation. For example, you're allowed to depreciate some assets like real estate even if they INCREASE in value over time. All of that depreciation is tax-deductible.

smeeth··on Elon Musk is wrong about GDP
Elon is definitely wrong. The author seems to be advocating running the economy on vibes, however.

> The real problem with GDP ... is that it tempts us to view all human progress as an amorphous score, which we can start maximising just as soon as we fix whatever we think is wrong with how that score is calculated.

No! The problem with GDP isn't that it's a score, it's that it's a BAD score. We know whats wrong with it. It's fixable, it doesn't ignore very many things! The main issues are totally tractable. In addition to ignoring utility:

1) GDP doesn't account for changes in net wealth.

If I take out a loan to buy candy, GDP goes up. After I eat the candy, the loan remains. I'm financially worse off. GDP still went up! Economy is doing well!

GDP also ignores depreciation. Machinery/infrastructure decay doesn't affect GDP at all.

2) GDP doesn't account for externalities or zero-cost innovation/value.

If I pollute the water supply to make an additional $10, GDP went up.

The inverse is also true. If I make Wikipedia freely available, the value provided to humanity does not affect GDP.

smeeth··on TikTok is harming children at an industrial scale
When we talk about harm on the internet, we often separate the activity from the harm, e.g., a problem with [activity] is that it could cause [harm].

But it's now clear that the activity is the harm. The issue isn’t that using TikTok might make you addicted; the issue is that you are using TikTok.

Just as there’s no such thing as responsibly huffing paint fumes, there’s no such thing as responsible social media use, only sub-diagnosable use.

smeeth··on Meta got caught gaming AI benchmarks
In fairness, 4o was like this until very recently. I suspect it comes from training on COT data from larger models.
smeeth··on What to Do
It’s not just that people disagree on whether or not to do these things, it’s also that they disagree on what helps people/the world.

An evangelical and an atheist will probably disagree about the helpfulness of spreading the gospel, for example.

smeeth··on What went wrong with the Alan Turing Institute?
I could be totally wrong (please correct me if so), but IMO there are two things happening that weren't totally discussed.

1) My understanding is that most the "researchers" and even students at ATI have a main role at a home institution. Really the question should be something more like "did ATI funding help advance UK research generally?" not "was ATI able to claim its own successes?"

2) Nobody has really mentioned how PhDs are a little different in the UK. E.g. you propose a topic -> research for three years -> receive PhD. In the US its more like research for 2+ years -> find a promising area -> do groundbreaking work over 1+ years -> receive PhD. In other words, its significantly easier to change your research direction in the US, of course its easier to miss out on things like the LLM explosion.

smeeth··on The science behind on-the-wrist blood pressure tracking
I'm not a doctor, but my understanding is that lower blood pressure can indeed lead to a higher heart rate under certain circumstances. For instance, people taking minoxidil for hair loss can experience lower blood pressure, which leads to higher heart rates and increased left ventricle thickness as a side effect.

My suspicion is that this happens because the heart is trying to maintain a constant oxygen supply to the muscles. However, if blood pressure is lowered by improving factors like arterial flexibility, stroke volume (amount of blood per heartbeat), muscle oxygen efficiency, or oxygen content in the blood, the heart wouldn't need to pump faster.

smeeth··on Can solar costs keep shrinking?
Related startup: Reflect Orbital plans to put mirrors in space so that light can be reflected back onto ground-based panels at night.

A base assumption is often that orbital solar requires a panel in space, but even that might not be the case.

https://www.reflectorbital.com/

smeeth··on AI's $600B Question
I know, my point is that I fail to see how the FTX collapse would lead them to a tone change.

> Maybe FTX did teach them something

The new tone is all about business fundamentals and the FTX collapse had literally nothing to do with business fundamentals. If this is the lesson they learned they learned the wrong lesson.

smeeth··on AI's $600B Question
I don’t think FTX is the right contrast here. This document is mostly about business realism: revenue, margins, etc.

VCs did get burned by speculative investing in the 2019-21 period but FTX wasn’t like the others. At the time of its collapse, FTX was profitable and had $1+ bn in revenue, its doom had nothing to do with product market fit, revenue, margins, etc.

Quibi might be a more relevant example of a learning opportunity.

smeeth··on Hospitals Are Refusing to Do Surgeries Unless You Pay in Full First
I wonder sometimes if the reason the US doesn't have universal healthcare is the 1987 Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA), which requires hospitals to provide life-saving emergency care regardless of a patient's ability to pay.

I doubt we'd would be able to handle seeing poor people die in the waiting room because of a ruptured appendix or something, but you don't actually see people go bankrupt so its almost like it never happened.

smeeth··on StackOverflow is banning accounts that delete answers in protest against OpenAI
So I totally get that people are upset, but it’s probably a good idea to remember that SO was on the path towards going out of business.

If they didn’t change something they would simply cease to exist. Does anyone have a better idea?

smeeth··on The Wi-Fi only works when it's raining
I had an experience like this once! My my laptop would inexplicably and intermittently stop connecting to the internet.

It turned out my bluetooth headset was using the same band as the wifi but I only figured this out after a few months and a replaced wifi card. I wouldn't wish that experience on my worst enemy.

smeeth··on Google Scholar PDF Reader
Check out https://openalex.org

I'm pretty optimistic that by the time google scholar really goes to shit they'll be good enough to pick up the slack.

smeeth··on Money bubble
Nope.

Failure to maximize returns is not losing money.

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