skue

This article includes interviews from multiple experts, citing data from both retrospective and case control studies, plus the pandemic which effectively provided an even broader, country-wide study that again matched their data.

I’d love to understand why you would post such a dogmatic dismissal without so much as a citation. Are you an ophthalmology researcher yourself who is familiar with contrary and well-vetted research? Are you someone with a strong personal experience that you have a hard time squaring with the data? Or are you someone who forms strong beliefs, firmly held, regardless of whatever new information life offers?

At this valuation and given the strength of the team, it’s not hard to imagine a future acquisition yielding a significant ROI.

Besides, we don’t know what future opportunities will unfold for these technologies. Clearly there’s no shortage of smart investors happy to place bets on that uncertainty.

Dunning himself addressed this back in 2011:

> 4.1. Regression to the mean

> The most common critique of our metacognitive account of lack of self-insight into ignorance centers on the statistical notion of regression to the mean. Recall from elementary statistics classes that no two variables are ever perfectly correlated with one another. This means that if one selects the poorest performers along one variable, one will see that their scores on the second variable will not be so extreme. Similarly, if one selects the best performers along a variable, one is guaranteed to see that their scores on the second variable will be lower…

His full response is longer than is appropriate to quote here, but you can easily find the chapter online.

Dunning, David (1 January 2011). "Chapter Five – The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One's Own Ignorance". Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Vol. 44. Academic Press. pp. 247–296. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-385522-0.00005-6. ISBN 9780123855220

> I built some software that ran on a cellphone used by LEO (law enforcement officers) to determine if the person they are quizzing is inebriated or impaired through controlled substances by examining the person's eyes and having them focus on images displayed on the phone screen.

Is this used in the field, and what level of testing and validation was required?

This is coming from a skeptical POV, but I’m genuinely curious to hear about the process. Historically, of course, law enforcement technology has a history of being anything but evidence based. It’s good that there’s finally progress away from pseudoscience like fiber analysis and smoke patterns.

But from your experience is there anything to stop LEOs from adopting new tools and technologies without adequate evaluation and standards, aside from the courts, which have such a poor track record in this space?

What’s with all the comments stating that the intersection could fool some human drivers too?

First, looking at it on 2D video shot at night is very different than actually being there. But more importantly, the acceptable threshold for autonomous vehicles is not and never will be “Better than the worst drivers.”

Definitely not a fly-by-night scam. It’s been around for almost a decade:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/fashion/a-robot-that-has-...

It’s the original wiki (and coined the term):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiWikiWeb

Has a bit of a focus on coding, with pages/discussions for various programming patterns and terms, like:

https://c2.com/xp/YouArentGonnaNeedIt.html

A foal can stand shortly after birth. It doesn’t learn that from its environment. Say we train a quadruped AI, then what is our training simulating if not evolutionary development? It’s no different for an AGI and whatever analogue it ultimately has for our evolutionarily derived neocortex.

You’re focusing on the specific numbers in the example, but missing the point. Imagine the salary difference is larger.

Basically, you have one company that has already paid $250K recruiting the doc and another company that paid close to $0. So if it comes to a bidding war over salary, the former company will always be at a financial disadvantage. And budgets always have limits.

You omitted the link that has a lot more detail about why they chose to license it this way:

http://sweetango.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ruralcoopera...

> 44 apple growers… are members of “Next Big Thing, A Growers’ Cooperative” (NBT)… across the United States and Canada. Their ranks include both small and large producers…

> NBT was the brainchild of Minnesota apple grower Dennis Courtier, owner of Pepin Heights Orchards Inc. While Minnesota is a small player in the U.S. apple industry, ranked 20 out of 29 commercially producing states in 2014, Courtier is well known in the industry for new variety innovation. He was one of the first commercial producers to grow and market Honeycrisp apples in the 1990s. Honeycrisp — a “fruit phenomenon” produced by the University of Minnesota’s (UMN) apple-breeding program — has turned the apple category on its head. By 2014, it had rocketed to become the No. 6 apple variety in the United States, based on production.

> Honeycrisp saved [Courtier’s] orchards, but soon it was being grown in geography it wasn’t suited to, and, arguably, being overgrown. The university had released it as an “open variety” — meaning that after paying a small royalty to a variety’s developer, any grower can buy Honeycrisp trees and sell the fruit as they wish.

> If apple growers were to be financially healthy in the long term, Courtier felt that apple production and marketing would have to change.

There is also this description about one of the co-op members (which may explain why other commenters have different opinions about Red Delicious)…

> The Clarks watched the decline of the Red Delicious (Reds) variety from a front-row seat. Chelan was historically known for producing prime-quality Reds. Then the variety was “bred to grow red” in parts of the state that weren’t good “terroir” (or growing territory) for it. That fruit didn’t taste as good or store as well.

> The variety’s popularity with consumers fell far and fast…

> “As consumers ourselves, we know that if we consumers don’t get a good apple, we don’t come back for a while,” says Bill Clark. “NBT is managing who grows an apple, where it grows, what the eating experience is. That’s paramount to the variety’s sustainability

Edit: formatting

Your odds of winning are no higher with a larger jackpot, and it is only profitable if you win. And unless you plan to invest in a massive number of tickets, the Law of Large Numbers doesn’t apply.

Saw this quote in the WSJ[1]:

> Alan Fitzsimmons, a DART investigation team member and astronomy professor at Queen’s University Belfast, said he would like the gravity tractor technique tested next, “because it’s actually very difficult to accurately guide and maneuver spacecraft in very close proximity to an asteroid.”

For the gravity tractor technique, I’m curious whether any experts here could explain just how challenging it would be to have a spacecraft match the speed and path of an asteroid headed to Earth. Could you take an elliptical path, and how much fuel would you need to match the asteroid’s velocity? How would that compare with past missions with a return component (e.g. the moon)?

As a layperson, just smashing into an asteroid seems like much simpler technique, if admittedly less elegant.

[1] https://archive.ph/20221011184904/https://www.wsj.com/articl...

> My coworker was a med student that couldn't pass the Mcats

That’s not a thing. The MCAT is used for admission into med school (equivalent to the LSAT or GRE).

:) I couldn’t help but read it that way as well, even though I know it’s most likely “fee for service.”

I understand how frustrating the Seattle housing market can be, but how is any of that the ~seller’s~ buyer’s fault? Your unempathetic rant is directed at someone also suffering the consequences of this market.

This house was purchased last year, prior to the most recent frenzy and no they didn’t spend anywhere near a mil on it, nor is it dilapidated. It’s actually easy to identify in Zillow if you bother to look.

Edit: seller’s -> buyer’s

Lack of internet was on the seller disclosure, but the buyer assumed it could be easily remedied. As for estimated costs, the buyer was unable to get that information from Comcast directly after “many months” and ultimately needed the city to intervene. So don’t see how it would have been any easier for the seller to obtain this info or appropriate to require it.

Do you own AirPods? When removing them from your ears, it’s easy to accidentally click the stems. The system interprets that as a Play command and will often launch Apple Music in response.

> I wish governments worldwide would boost this industry and get these heat pumps in the hands of people as fast as possible.

> …

> My wish is for the European Union to use any emergency powers it has to subsidise/mandate/beg the companies to mass manufacture heat pumps and solve the installation problem.

Can’t speak to other governments, but earlier this month the US invoked the Defense Production Act to do exactly this:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biden-order-will-...

By your logic, it would be wrong to say that OpenAI is closer to consciousness than a piece of lumber.

However, your comment is a good reminder that non-rigid thought patterns are not a prerequisite for consciousness. (How apropos your username!)

> >"... will change the makeup of our workforce [to] younger, whiter, more male-dominated, more neuro-normative, more able-bodied"

> Was this an issue before COVID? I can see how this policy might help shape the workforce, but not how it would change the workforce from what it already is…

Don’t disagree with you, but I interpreted their point of comparison to be what would be if there were more WFH flexibility, rather than what is/was.

I am also sympathetic to that line of thinking because while I support diversity efforts, it strikes me that they are often framed around how to make more individuals who are underrepresented in an industry join a company (where they will be still be underrepresented) by relocating to a new community (where they will also be underrepresented), while losing the support of their previously local friends & family. Large companies that care about diversity could instead focus more on opening offices in diverse parts of the country in order create more attractive jobs within those communities, rather than simply bemoaning the challenge of getting underrepresented people to uproot their lives for them. Hopefully increased WFH opportunities will help address this issue.

Facial detail may be great, but it’s amazing to me that they would put so much effort into making an animated character look life-like, but neglect to have it breathe.

There is zero chest wall movement. If you have a friend who works in medicine — especially emergency med or intensive care - send them this link and ask them how natural this looks. Bet most of them will immediately notice the same issue.

> I'm an anti-COVID-19-vaxxer myself…

> If you come down with a 'breakthrough' case of COVID-19, don't let the doctors ventilate you…

> I heard recently of a friend's 70-yo neighbor who tested positive for COVID-19. She tried to sit it out for two weeks at home, deteriorated, went to a hospital in the big city, got ventilated, died.

If this doesn’t illustrate how conspiracy theories invert cause and effect, I don’t know what does. As an analogy:

Motor vehicle accident victims who present to the ED with the most severe injuries are most likely to die.

Motor vehicle accident victims who present to the ED with the most severe injuries are also the most likely to go right into emergency surgery.

Only someone bereft of common sense and reason would conclude that the solution is to warn everyone to never let trauma surgeons operate on you.

Perhaps because it generated less energy (1.3 MJ) than was directed at it (1.9 MJ). The team calculated that the fuel capsule generated more energy than it absorbed, but the overall reactor did not generate net energy.

It’s an option, just as it is for VSCode.

Personally I love seeing this option because it lets me run my dev environment in a local VM. Sadly, I no longer trust community-developed editor plug-ins or dev tools to be free from malicious code. We talk about the problems with npm dependencies all the time on HN. How often do you audit the dependencies of your favorite VSCode plugins? I simply don’t want that code running on my system with full user access, and this architecture lets me avoid that. Of course there are still risks with it having access to dev code, but reducing potential exposure is a good thing.

> What was Gates doing and why is there a collective sigh about it? Tech does not care. Microsoft does not care.

Melinda does care.

There is the Hygiene Hypothesis, which is the reverse: Decreased exposure to some pathogens, especially when young, can make the immune system overly sensitive and thereby increase the risk of atopic and autoimmune disorders.

I’m not sure whether you’re arguing that this wouldn’t be noticed or if we cannot measure it statistically.

For the former, the side effect is blot clots with thrombocytopenia. That combo is very rare, is indicative of an autoimmune etiology, and would stand out to healthcare providers and be reported. Even if there were a few cases that were not identified or reported, it would not lead to a 2x order of magnitude difference in the reported incidence as you suggest.

If your argument is a statistical one about the study being underpowered, then show your math. Because this is definitely not a small n.

Otherwise, be careful about presuming that something in a domain unfamiliar to you is equally unclear to experts in that domain.

You can also imagine an executive team trying to shift suspicion towards the whistleblower, who happens to be an individual with intricate knowledge of their cloud infrastructure.

> "Any sufficiently complicated model class contains an ad hoc, informally specified, bug-ridden, slow implementation of half of a state machine." (not sure where I read this quote).

Can’t tell you where you read it, of course, but believe it originates from Braithwaite/raganwald:

http://raganwald.com/2018/02/23/forde.html

> MFS2020 can simulate an aircraft that was partially damaged after colliding with an obstacle, but a catastrophic crash will just fade to black... Lame.

It’s a simulator, not a video game. What would be more realistic than this?