5,753 karma · joined December 1, 2012
Token costs are also non-trivial. Claude can exhaust a $20/month session limit with one difficult problem (didn't even write code, just planned). Each engineer needs at least the $200/mo plan - I have multiple plans from multiple providers.
* Political Corruption - you don't know if your permit, M&A, or regulatory rule-change will go through without a bribe to the right person
* Tech, which makes up most of the market, is all in on AI - these companies are late stage and the AI narrative is the only growth story so the market doesn't reward them for investing in anything else
* Cheap globally accessible labor
* Lack of enforcement of anti-trust means stodgy uncompetitive markets with players that make their margin through rent-seeking rather than increasing production or quality of goods and services.
* Poor investments and corruption in our healthcare system make it really expensive to hire Americans
* Poor investments and corruption in education make many Americans unsuitable for high skilled work.
That said, what you say isn't as important as what you do. If you're interviewing, you should be interviewing at at least a few places to get comps. You will get lowballed if you don't have comps. Once you have a few offers, do one round of playing them off each other, decide which company you want to work for, and then say you'll sign today if they can beat the current best offer.
Sure you have to schedule your own hardware repairs or updates but it also means you don't need to wrangle with the ridiculous cost-engineering, reserved instances, cloud product support issues or API deprecations, proprietary configuration languages, etc.
Bare metal is better for a lot of non-cost reasons too, as the article notes it's just easier/better to reason about the lower level primitives and you get more reliable and repeatable performance.
I do think like this HN post (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46847690) is a good example of where a custom more domain specific solution makes a lot more sense that dropping in an off-the-shelf ERP. Still though, I think the bakery would prefer to buy the bakery-ERP than build it but vibecoding does reduce the barrier to entry so we might see more competition and share taking from incumbents by domain-specialized new entrants.
(thankfully market dynamics and OSS alternatives will probably stop this but it's not a guarantee, you need like at least six viable firms before you usually see competitive behavior)
On one hand this is pretty obviously dumb but on the other maybe I'm just not 'getting it' and if shit-coin-speculators want to help finance OSS projects (vibe coded or no) why complain about it?
The loss of competency seems pretty obvious but it's good to have data. What is also interesting to me is that the AI assisted group accomplished the task a bit faster but it wasn't statistically significant. Which seems to align with other findings that AI can make you 'feel' like you're working faster but that perception isn't always matched by the reality. So you're trading learning and eroding competency for a productivity boost which isn't always there.