shafyy

I recommend watching the latest Last Week Tonight about prediction markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4

I know, didn't add an /s. I thought it was obvious haha

For all practical purposes, it is.

Thought so too. Odd.

You mean the one they try to build in The Office?

Why?

God, they must have hated being forced to speak to the president

I'll have some of what you're having

It's widely accepted that sunsetting nuclear energy had a positive impact on the deployment of renewables, and consequently on the longer term energy prices. It was one of the better energy policy (and environmental, and security) decisions Germany has made in the recent past.

My understanding is that it's the same here in Germany. From the website

> What does "decoupled" mean? In a gas-dominated electricity market, the marginal generator setting the price is almost always a gas-fired power plant (CCGT). That means electricity prices are structurally linked to gas prices — when gas rises, electricity rises with it. Decoupling happens when enough zero-marginal-cost renewable generation (wind, solar) pushes gas off the margin for enough hours that the annual average electricity price no longer tracks gas.

Yes the jury is out on this:

> Also which jury is still out on starship ? I haven’t read any serious criticism that suggests there are insurmountable technical obstacles to it working. Timelines and the exact final cost-to-orbit are still debatable I guess ?

There are also other space companies outside of SpaceX who have innovated and reduced the cost of mass to orbit.

Just trying to add the perspective that while yes, SpaceX is impressive, there are also other companies and this hero-like worship of SpaceX (or any other company/person) is not great.

The jury is still out on Starship. And also a bold claim to say that SpaceX by itself has reduced the cost of a ton of mass into orbit by a factor of 10. Did it play an important role in that reduction? Sure...

Looking forward to the movie about this absolute scammer Sam Altman when this is all said and done.

Hahaha great story. But that's not what I had I thought about at all.

What is the best way to get start with open weight models? And are they a good alternative to Claude Code?

Haha, no reference. I just made something up and tried to be funny.

Not counting training models as part of your gross margin is just creative accounting. It's an inherent part of being able to provde the service for OpenAI, Anthropic etc.

Even so, their subscriptions are significantly cheaper than the token pricing via API. So at some point they will need to get rid of subscriptions or increase the subscription prices dramatically... And that's assuming their current token pricing is actually profitable. Which it probably isn't.

Lastly, I would not trust one word that comes out of an executive of an AI company (or any other large company, for that matter).

Fun fact: Editors are usually also people. Except for that one dog I met during a cold winter's day in 1987 in a run-down London pub.

Ok thanks!

Because people using LLMs get lazy and can't event type normal text themselves anymore.

Do you own one of these? If yes, are you happy with the quality?

> They don't change the prices, they just modify the amount of compute allocated - slower speeds and fewer tokens, they can set everything in the background to optimize costs and returns, and the user never realizes anything has changed.

I can't imagine that this is the way it will go... Tokens haven't been getting cheaper for flagship models, have they? You already see something closer to their real cost if you compare e.g. the Claude subscriptions to their actual token pricing.

> Local AI capabilities are improving at a rapid pace, at some point soon we'll have an RWKV or a 4B LLM that performs at a GPT-5 level, with reasoning and all the bells and whistles, and hopefully that'll shake out most of the deceptive and shady tactics the big platforms are using.

Maybe, but LLMs are scale game, and data center will always be more capable than your local device. So, you will always be getting a worse version locally. Or do you think we'll LLMs in data centers stop getting better and local LLMs will somehow catch up?

Well explained, thank you! This is called the marginal price. Many people are not aware of this and are then think renewables are expensive.

I feel like 4.6 is worse than 4.5 lol

Haha yeah... Wait until they start jacking up the subscription prices

Haha sure, let's just let every user add their feedback to the software.

Yes housing prices are captured by inflation, but since housing prices are so different from region to region and city to city, just looking at a country-wide average median income does not say much.

Inequality is still important even if everybody is getting richer (I disagree that everybody is getting richer, but that's a different discussion). Because wealth and power concentrated in the hand of a few means that a few have outsized influence on politics and society, which is very much eroding the fundaments of how a democracy is supposed to work.

Furthermore, there are many studies showing that more wealth inequality results in more consumption in a society. Which is not good for many reasons.

You can't just look at real median income. You also need to look at other factors like wealth inequality, housing prices and health care.

Haha great. I guess my wider point is that most people won't be ready to pay for it, and in the end there will be only two ways to monetize for OpenAI et al: Ads or B2B. And B2B will only work if they invest a lot into sales or if the business owners see real productivity gains one the hype has died one.