219 karma · joined December 6, 2012
The thing is most regulation is happening where people actually get hurt. Hey, I am not super pro regulation person, but in comment above, I just tried to disprove something that seemed false. I am not going steelman pro-regulation arguments any more :)
You do not want to be coder. They will get wiped, I recon, at least in 10-20 year span. (I remember some dude on twitter was flexing a week ago, he got a quote from dev for 5k and he did "the app" in 3 evenings using chatgpt. That is all great, but it's also why we work on contracts. We mostly expand and maintain what is already there. Building new things for every new caveat is not a way to tackle serious complexity. I have seen companies that are writing an aws lambda for every small subproblem, they do it mostly cause they lack decent engineers to tackle domain complexity)
You want to be engineer working on a product, that means engaging in understanding customers, engaging in understand product/business etc. I think this is safe space to be for a long time.
Now, for a quite some time a path to this led through coding. You would join a product as junior/mid developer and senior devs will throw at you stuff that they don't want to be bothered with. You would gradually gain more knowledge and insight and eventually become one.
Near future. I think the first thing that might come up is a flow(github terms used) like this one: write an issue > click the pull request that pops up after 5 minutes (ai generated) > write a review of possible mistakes > another commit pops up (ai generated) > do the last fix manually (just some renaming etc) > approve pull request.
The above is my best effort speculation, seeing capabilities of ai things nowadays. Will this contract or expand the pool of jobs is hard to say - safer to bet on neither.
Some anxiety about this is good, but also I think that people anxious often are the first to adapt properly. Problems will hurt more oblivious people who often hand wave stuff till dawn.
similar stuff is being research under "langchains" term
I remember after ruby on rails first demo, next day people had their websites up in ror. Here we will see, but it will be a bigger shift.
Every org has varying level of engineers. This technology will make cheap grind, well cheap. We see the progression. With the speed of changes it seems we should all be worried. (as why does it matter despite being last we fell a year after)
I don't mean to sound mean, senior devs are also secretaries of their cto and so on.
I do not think 10-15% degradation is underestimated.
This is something interesting that often is skipped due to "sterile" nature of system design questions(solve puzzle). 90% of system design problems are tightly connected with how your org works internally. Can you depend on particular team or is it better to provide requested functionality internally. This is very often neglected but this moves or breaks stuffs.
Imagine you have to build a complete traffic system architecture for the city that will start settling in a year? It will likely be ongoing thing for you, you will observe how street layout works and adjust, build new streets, make city highway from point A to point B etc. but over time. Doing this apriori is going to go horribly bad.
Examples: other search engines, social networks, 3d games still exist. For many folks a different graphic on your homepage can be differentiator enough. (If you ever wonder why A/B, SEO, copywriting, design/ux is important)
Time will tell. I don't think Musk/twitter's case will set any precedent. He is too much of a character to provide broad meaningful insights into industry. Also he has accumulated a list of failures which are rarely mentioned.
If the job mentions the technology and most clojure/haskell/elixir dev jobs do then well unless they state "looking for experienced person willing to learn" in description I would not bother them. (at least with my complete lack of experience in tech). Similarly as I would not apply to "weird-tech-i-merely-heard consultant". Also think there should be consistency on the job titles/descriptions on the side of job posters.
I have been recruiting quite a lot and at the end of the cycle you go through making difficult choices. Often times you get 2 good candidates and only one spot. So you compare them and pick a better one. The dismissed candidate can be picked next year due to lack of better candidates.
Unless it has been clearly stated in the reply that you seemed to be below their expectation of a senior candidate. And even then... a lot can change over the year and if you feel like you are better you have every right to reapply. Most companies will inform you of reapply policy terms if your are outside of it.
This leads to what you described. I guess it also offers an easy cop out for them if the button will be placed in the worst possible way. "Since Jerry was also on the call and I always thought he has final say."
Preferably engineers I like working with are T shaped. So they are generalists to a degree they can fill in but they have their own domain where their expertise is gathered. Its way easier for me to say "its just like the ... X" and if people have some rough understanding of X we can move on. If they don't we gonna have a week of explaining/understanding whats X.