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renaudg

2,422 karma · joined October 26, 2011

Infrastructure / AI engineer. Early ex-Meta. French Londoner.
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renaudg··on Words known better by males than females, and vice versa
In a way, it is. Most of these words are French.
renaudg··on What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity
It's simply accurate, and reflects the dramatic difference in vaccine efficacy between 2 and 3 doses (or rather, between a recent or more distant dose)
renaudg··on What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity
93% of the eligible have had two doses in France, or 78% of the population : https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
renaudg··on What the Omicron wave is revealing about human immunity
This is true but slightly misleading : if 100% of the population was vaccinated, 100% of hospitalizations would be amongst vaccinated people.

They would be a much smaller and manageable number, and on average much older/vulnerable than they are now (vaccination basically lowers your risk to that of someone 20-30 years younger)

More figures from France : the unvaccinated 8% account for 39% of hospitalizations, 54% of intensive care admissions, 46% of Covid deaths.

This is a hugely outsized effect, so there's still enormous potential for drastically improving the situation in hospitals with just a few more percentage points of vaccinated people.

renaudg··on Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook
Make that 18. With custom server designs and some of the best power efficiency out there.

Amazon also had built their DCs for Amazon, and Google for Google, so that's not a valid argument. But it does take a lot of work to turn that into a marketable product (and transform your company culture to support it), and I don't think it makes sense for Meta to go down that route.

renaudg··on Minitel: The Online World France Built Before the Web (2017)
> The real thing than Minitel hindred in France are Bulletin Board Systems. They where never really a thing in France.

As a Frenchman who spent most of my high school evenings on demoscene-oriented BBSes like A.C.E., Dune and Eden, I'll beg to differ and raise this : http://web.fdn.fr/~musical/bbsf.txt

:)

renaudg··on Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?
Thread as a blog post, in English : https://zerforschung.org/posts/djokovic-pcr-test-en/
renaudg··on Djokovic's PCR test was manipulated?
Not just Serbia : EU countries have implemented an interoperable vaccination/testing certificate system that relies on digital signatures.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-re...

renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
Good explanation of why a milder more contagious variant is bad news : https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/134356742510788198...
renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
>disease does not spread exponentially. It never does. That’s a laymen fairy tail and it does a great deal of harm in understanding the disease.

>Exponential is not well understood. People don’t know what it means, as evidenced by the fact that they consistently use it incorrectly.

Well, in typical Dunning-Krüger fashion you're lecturing us laymen about the wrong use of "exponential", but it seems that you are the layman when it comes to epidemiology modelling.

Diseases of course spread in an initially exponential phase, not logarithmically as you boldly claim in another comment.

Epidemiologists talk about exponential disease growth all the time, here's one example : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/

renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
Look, no need to be pedantic about this : the only thing that counts here is whether it's still in the initial exponential phase by the time we hit maximum hospital capacity. It seems likely.
renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
It sounds like you don't know the first thing about epidemiology modelling : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/
renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
> None of the 78,000 cases up to 7th Dec in South Africa resulted in a reported death up to 13th Dec.

Covid takes about 3 weeks to kill. The Omicron epicenter in SA has a much younger demographic than in western countries.

renaudg··on Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study
> The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide.

No, this scenario wouldn't be good news at all.

Firstly, a marginally lower case fatality rate is a linear improvement, whereas much higher transmissibility is an exponential worsening.

In other words, the reduced risk of an infected person getting into hospital is dwarfed by the exponential increase in the number of sick people, and the net result is way more hospital admissions. This could easily overwhelm healthcare systems in the coming weeks and make them unavailable for anyone who needs them, not just Covid patients (unfortunately, these indirect casualties of Covid are undercounted)

Secondly, each new infection is an additional ticket in the great variant evolution lottery. The more infections, the higher the risk of a vaccine-escaping, serious disease-causing new variant being selected. Low vaccinations rates in South Africa, plus the high number of untreated HIV+ patients there (who struggle to get rid of Covid and are a perfect breeding ground for variants) are thought to have contributed to Omicron's emergence.

That's why "let it rip through so we get natural immunity" is such a short sighted stance.

renaudg··on China to supercharge uranium race with 150 new nuclear reactors
It is indeed. IIRC, 40-ish years of waste of the French nuclear power program fits in a couple of swimming pools. Compared to the alternatives (including the tons of particles released by coal power plants, causing thousands of deaths a year in Europe), it's a complete non-issue.
renaudg··on Show HN: My wife is pregnant; naturally I made a baby-name app to prepare
I second the request for being able to upload a custom list. Looking for dual culture/language names at the moment and it isn't easy :)
renaudg··on Ask HN: Who is hiring? (November 2021)
Monolith | SRE / Platform / DevOps Engineer | Remote (EU/UK) or London, UK | https://monolith.xyz / https://token.com/

Hi, we’re Monolith ! We pioneer making it easy, safe & fun to grow money, using the power of decentralised technology. We're busy building our new product token.com. Our goal is to create the most captivating onboarding to the DeFi universe.

We’re a team of around 30 people now working as a remote-first company, arranging monthly get-togethers and quarterly team retreats. From time to time we have a co-working space in London for collaboration and socialising.

We’re looking for a second DevOps Engineer to join our team. Our stack consists of Go / Node.js microservices running in Kubernetes on Google Cloud Platform, using Firestore, BigQuery, Pub/Sub and more. We're building a new platform with a GitOps approach using ArgoCD, Codefresh and Github actions, and our infrastructure is managed in Terraform and Config Connector.

You will ideally have experience with much of the above (at least Kubernetes), as well as strong fundamentals in Linux/networking/SRE. If you'd like to work with "cloud native" tooling & practices at a startup in an exciting product space, this is the place !

Please apply here (and mention HN somewhere): https://apply.workable.com/monolithweb3/j/E3C8A87EA0/

renaudg··on Epigallocatechin gallate from green tea effectively blocks infection of Covid
There is no shortage of compounds that can block SARS-CoV-2 infection in a test tube, or in the body at concentrations that would also kill you.
renaudg··on Police can’t demand you reveal your phone passcode then tell a jury you refused
>Fortunately, they didn't realize that Find My iPhone persists through factory resets (nice!).

Wouldn't a thief that knows enough to ask you to do a factory reset also know to ask you to disable Find My iPhone ?

I mean you're even prompted to do so during the "erase all content & settings" process, right ?

renaudg··on [dead]
FB does have business customers with (at least) Workplace. Hence the name of this dashboard.
renaudg··on [dead]
DNS resolvers worldwide being bombarded with retries from clients trying to reach FB.
renaudg··on Sir Clive Sinclair has died
It's a bit strange to compare the C64 with the Atari ST : the latter was a 16-bit computer, one generation after the C64. It had much better graphics. But it didn't match the Amiga :)

The mainstream 8-bit machine with the best graphics was probably the Amstrad CPC. Here's a comparison with the Spectrum for example : https://imgur.com/a/D7Ocd

When it comes to arcade-style gameplay though, the C64 was often ahead because of its hardware accelerated sprites (and a legendary sound chip that was ahead of its time)

renaudg··on Sir Clive Sinclair has died
I grew up in France and the Amstrad was king (same in Spain I believe), the C64 a very very distant second, and nobody had ever seen a Spectrum (thankfully, if I may add : the C64 was special and in spite of its terrible palette deserves all the praise it gets. The Spectrum is a mediocre and incredibly overrated machine compared to the others. It was decent and affordable in 1982, but by 1984 both the C64 and Amstrad CPC were wiping the floor with it, and there was no longer a rational reason to prefer it. A bizarre love affair the UK has had with this machine...)
renaudg··on Sir Clive Sinclair has died
I owe my career to this golden generation of micros (an Amstrad CPC in my case). Much respect to the man who undoubtedly kickstarted this revolution in Britain.

Now, at the risk of sounding blasphemous : the ZX Spectrum is also the most annoyingly overrated, overhyped system in UK retro computing circles, bar none.

While it might technically be able to display 8 (garish) colours (some of which are shades of others) it can't even do it without weird limitations ("colour clash"). For all intents and purposes, its software feels monochrome. You might get a couple of different background colours on screen, but sprites are nearly always monochrome with heavy use of dithering. They leave a lot to the imagination, that's for sure (check out the monochrome rainbows in Rainbow Islands :) )

The keyboard is rubbish, the machine doesn't come with a tape player, it doesn't do standard joysticks. Its BASIC is cryptic and underpowered compared to the Amstrad's (tbh, the C64's isn't great either, maybe the Amstrad just shines here)

All of that was probably fair game for a cheap entry level machine in 1982, but by 1984 the Commodore 64 and Amstrad CPC were both affordable and running circles around the poor Spectrum (each with their own strengths). Most other European countries had caught wind of this and chose a side (C64 in Germany / Nordics, Amstrad in France / Spain) and yet, Britain kept this bizarre and very unique love affair with the Speccy going strong, well into the early 90s.

Today, the reality distortion field its fans live in would put Apple's to shame. The term "nostalgia goggles" must have been invented for ZX Spectrum Youtubers, seriously : they will do comparison videos between 8-bit conversions of arcade games where any outside observer would find the Spectrum port to be embarrassingly, almost comically inferior to the other two, but they'll still award it the top spot for reasons like "it plays well", or "it looks great despite the good old Speccy's limitations"

On forums, you will show them side by side Amstrad/Spectrum game screenshot comparisons (like this one : https://imgur.com/a/D7Ocd) and they'll still insist the games on the right hand side look better. The publisher of the excellent "visual compendium" series of retrogaming books has one about the Spectrum, refuses to do one with the Amstrad. Go figure...

In the end of course, it's all good fun to be reenacting what is really schoolyard squabble, but the inability of the British to recognise the one homegrown computer they should be proud of never ceases to amaze me ;)

renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
Anyone tempted to reply to this troll, here's the kind of other stuff he writes : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28082379
renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
Yay anecdotal evidence !
renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
This discussion would only be relevant if there was any downside or personal cost to the obvious solution, which is to just get the damn vaccine.

Apart from facing one's cognitive dissonance, fears and ignorance, there is none. Just overwhelming benefits. It's perfectly okay for society to require it.

renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
Yes, and that's perfectly fine because 1. you've been accepting that for other vaccines already and 2. there is no cost or significant risk to you from getting vaccinated, mostly just massive benefits. It's a win-win situation. Society is asking you to take 1 hour of your time to save your own life.

The fact that some people don't recognize that gift as what it is because they've been misinformed is irrelevant because, well, whatever they believe is simply not true.

renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
You seem happy to be countering his personal experience with your own personal experience, and jump to the conclusion that there's no difference (wrong) and the vaccine does nothing (wrong) so why bother risking long term consequences (there's zero reason to think there's any from vaccines, while there are reasons to think there are many from Covid)

If only there was a way to objectively assess these things... Oh wait there is, it's called "doing a randomized controlled trial on more than 3 people" and "numerous observational studies from real world data"

And guess what ? From this data, you're 90% less likely to get severely ill and 95% less likely to die if you've been vaccinated, even with Delta.

> If you are saying it prevents covid death - you are wrong. Check England's data.

No he's right. Still about 95% protection against death from Delta.

> More unvaccinated people are getting covid but they are dying less.

Wrong.

> Vaccinated people are getting covid less but the ones who died after getting covid are more.

Still wrong. Unless you've been comparing vaccinated 80 year olds with unvaccinated 20 year olds maybe ?

Being vaccinated makes you 20-30 years younger in terms of your risk to die from Covid (source : https://www.ft.com/content/0f11b219-0f1b-420e-8188-6651d1e74...)

> The math isn't adding up for the vaccines.

Thanks for the brilliant demonstration.

renaudg··on FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
This is the expert consensus based on everything they know about how immunity and mRNA works.

It's kind of hard to give you one single source, simply because it's hard to demonstrate the absence of something. What usually happens instead is that somebody with specific concerns raises them and explains the plausible mechanism they see as problematic, then it's either debunked immediately as BS or if the theory has legs, it's supported by other scientists and put the test.

None of that has happened with mRNA vaccines. This is a great read about the Pfizer one : https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source...

I mean, you can't technically rule out somebody coming up with a revolutionary theory that changes our understanding of immunity like Einstein did for physics, but there is no sign of that, no theoretical basis for trouble, and the vaccine is saving lives in the meantime

>Also, what about people who have antibodies from prior infection with covid?

Research is moving fast on this, but AFAIK the consensus is that prior symptomatic infection gives longer lasting but also less broad (against different variants) immunity compared to an mRNA vaccine.

The best protection seems to be in people with prior infection + 1 shot of mRNA vaccine (of course, that does not imply one should try to get infected then vaccinated, because the risk of damage from that first infection vastly outweighs the benefit of a slightly better immunity if you pulled through unscathed, then got vaccinated)

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