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quickthrowman

4,135 karma · joined December 18, 2019

I can dance underwater, and not get wet.
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quickthrowman··on The first new cat species discovered in 100 years
I think the lady that got mauled to death in 2018 at the lion preserve that guy works at might disagree with you if she hadn’t been y’know, mauled to death by a lion.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/28/africa/woman-killed-lion-...

quickthrowman··on Korea raises data breach fines to 10% of revenue
I would like to make a wager on this law being ignored the first time Samsung or another chaebol violates it and is facing a fine equal to 10% of revenue. I can almost guarantee it, it’s a high enough fine to turn some low-margin businesses from profitable to unprofitable for the year and there’s no such thing as a secure computer system. The only way to guarantee compliance is to not store any data which isn’t exactly reasonable for some business models.
quickthrowman··on Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman, Names Son to Replace Him
> I would be set for the rest of my life if I got half a mill falling from sky today, I guess I could even make it work with 250k.

Maybe you only have a few years left to live? If not, I’m not sure where one can live on $10,000 to $15,000 a year and pay for shelter, food, clothing, and healthcare. It costs more than that per year for health insurance for one adult over 40 in the US.

That is what $500k grants you, chop those in half for $250k.

quickthrowman··on US Treasuries Have Become Unappetizing for Foreign Central Banks and Governments
There are an excess of dollars floating around internationally and only so many ‘risk free’ dollar-denominated assets. US Treasuries will continue to be purchased. There are plenty of buyers who are obligated to buy risk-free assets and US Treasuries are the vehicle of choice.
quickthrowman··on Missouri governor orders guardrails on Flock cameras and ALPRs
> The order directs the Missouri Department of Public Safety to create safeguards for state agencies and state-funded law enforcement departments using the automatic license plate readers.

There’s no restrictions on private ALPRs in MO resulting from this executive order.

An executive order is a directive for government agencies under the executive branch, not private organizations.

It’s against the rules to ask if you read the article, so I won’t do that.

quickthrowman··on Wax motor
> Objects like this make me think of grimdark (steam|diesel)punk works like the video games Dishonored or BioShock. It feels like there's a touch of occultism or corruption whenever one creates a device that exploits analog side effects to create machines in a closed, black-box package.

The second sentence also fits for field effect transistors and solid state electronics in general.

In the spirit of grimdark steampunk, have you ever heard of pneumatic logic? I still see these systems operating normally in some older mechanical rooms, it’s cool to see them still working after 40-50 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_circuit

quickthrowman··on A single firm is behind OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta hacking scandals
Some of it is due to the explosion in options trading and the resultant hedging by market makers, but large institutions still have valuation models based on fundamentals that they trade on.

It’s entirely possible that the market is wrong about RDDTs future growth, and in that case the P/E will come back down to earth.

quickthrowman··on Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields
> A 0.25% rate hike is going to cause a recession? How, exactly, would that happen?

I didn’t see anyone claim a single 25 bps hike will cause a recession.

The 30 day FFR futures (/ZQ) curve is pricing in an 80% chance of two more hikes by the March 2027 meeting and a 70% chance of 3 or 4 hikes by Sept 2027’s meeting. So, 50 bps predicted in the next 6 months and 25-50 bps more within one year.

Source is the CME Fedwatch tool: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

I think we’ll need to go to 5%+ within the next two years if fuel costs remain elevated.

quickthrowman··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
I’ve traded over a million dollars of equity volume this year but my brokerage account has less than $50,000 in it. You can wager the same dollar more than once.
quickthrowman··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
I’m confused, are these suicide attempts due to gambling addiction or is it mental health ER patients looking to enter a gambling addiction treatment program?

I’m having a hard time thinking of any other reason that a gambling addiction would cause someone to visit the ER.

quickthrowman··on Giving up on smart rings
Place the tungsten ring against concrete, hit the top of the ring gently with a hammer and increasing the force with each hammer blow until the ring cracks.

Search YouTube for “break tungsten ring” for examples.

quickthrowman··on Giving up on smart rings
I agree with you, but I believe the person you responded to meant that someone with an expensive mechanical watch doesn’t want to wear a smart watch in place of their mechanical watch (and double wristing looks silly). As someone with an expensive mechanical watch who wants to wear that instead of an Apple Watch, I agree with them.
quickthrowman··on Most people prefer traditional architecture
Baumol’s cost disease makes building ornamentation cost prohibitive for all except the highest profile (and budget) projects.
quickthrowman··on A single firm is behind OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta hacking scandals
> Someone go ahead and explain to me the actual rationale that RDDT has a higher P/E ratio than Nvidia.

Investors in RDDT are pricing more growth than they are into NVDA. NVDA had a high P/E until their net income grew ($4B and change to $72.2B in from FY 2023 to FY 2025 and over $100B for FY 2026)

quickthrowman··on Where has Construction Automation been successful?
Sears did this over a hundred years ago, except in a rail car instead of a truck trailer. You can buy kit homes and outbuildings from Menards and other places.
quickthrowman··on Where has Construction Automation been successful?
It doesn’t cost that much more to frame up a house in the field vs framing it in a warehouse.
quickthrowman··on After Math
> I’d say Terrance has recently left the denial phase, …

There’s a byline at the top of the article that lists the authors of this blog post, neither of which are Terry Tao.

> [This is a guest post by Silvia De Toffoli and Eamon Duede. This blog post was initially written in a different file format and converted using AI. — T.]

quickthrowman··on Killing with a car costs $1.6M, California requires drivers to carry $30K
Thanks for the advice, I will look into that!
quickthrowman··on Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
> Anthropic specifically is basically saying that they believe it's even more dangerous if someone else gets to AGI before they do, so they have to either stop everyone or not stop themselves.

That’s how people rationalize being a fentanyl dealer and selling a drug that can kill people, “Someone else will just sell them the drugs, might as well be me.”

quickthrowman··on Everyone should slow down AI development except for me
If I really thought what my company was working on had a greater than 1% chance of ending human civilization I would feel obligated to destroy what my company was working on.

Given they keep grinding away towards our alleged collective doom, I suspect it’s being overstated. Nobody knows what P(doom) actually is but I suspect it’s orders of magnitude closer to epsilon than 1.

Recall Google’s Blake Lemoine who thought an old version of Gemini was sentient.

quickthrowman··on Killing with a car costs $1.6M, California requires drivers to carry $30K
“Nub City” is a nickname for Vernon, Florida where the residents ended up filing far more dismemberment insurance claims for amputated limbs than was statistically likely, the town of 500-800 people was the source of 2/3rds of the claims against the policies at one point. Insurance companies stopped writing dismemberment insurance policies in the area.

> Vernon gained infamy in the late 1950s and early 1960s due to the improbably high percentage of residents who made insurance claims for lost limbs, leading to an investigation of whether residents of the city were intentionally dismembering themselves for the insurance money. These insurance claims from Vernon, with a population of 500 to 800, accounted for as many as 2/3 of claims nationally, but there was no way of proving that any particular amputation was deliberate.[9] This led to Vernon being referred to as "nub city" during this period. In 1980, Errol Morris attempted to make a documentary about this phenomenon, but after being threatened by city residents and physically attacked by one, he changed the focus of the film, resulting in the 1981 documentary film Vernon, Florida.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon,_Florida

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon,_Florida_(film)

quickthrowman··on Killing with a car costs $1.6M, California requires drivers to carry $30K
I have $500,000 in coverage for bodily injury liability and $100,000 for property damage and I feel like that’s not enough but those are the highest options to select for coverage.

I’d prefer to be covered at double those amounts in case of some crazy and unlikely scenario like getting in an accident with a G Wagon where the other driver dies. There’s also $40M aggregate of personal injury protection.

quickthrowman··on Nvidia is the central bank of AI
CME is launching futures contracts for GPU compute: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/power/compute-future...
quickthrowman··on How to buy a good car for $1000
A Lexus is just a Toyota with nicer materials on the inside. They use Toyota parts that cost Toyota prices, they aren’t out to gouge you on parts like European manufacturers. Sometimes Lexus vehicles are cheaper than a similar Toyota, a Lexus GX460 costs less than a similar vintage Toyota 4Runner or Toyota Landcruiser.
quickthrowman··on Show HN: Bodily Oddities
I experience the falling feeling in my legs and feet as well.
quickthrowman··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
A 98% efficient condensing boiler will be cheaper to operate than a heat pump, we have a ridiculous amount of cheap natural gas in the US.
quickthrowman··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
The “common” places I’ve seen ammonia refrigeration in use are hockey rinks and cold storage warehouses. I assume it’s used in industrial installations as well for heat rejection.
quickthrowman··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
Yes, if you release propane into an enclosed space like a mechanical room and then introduce a spark, it could cause an explosion.

The explosion risk (in a commercial setting) is mitigated by having gas detection sensors and an exhaust fan that runs when the gas detection alarm trips along with horn/strobes at any entrance to the mechanical room and inside the mechanical room.

In a residential setting, I’d only feel safe if the condenser (outdoor unit) used propane with a liquid to liquid heat exchanger and separate glycol loop that runs inside to the air handler coil.

quickthrowman··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
Here you go: https://www.homedepot.com/p/Hydro-Systems-Fusion-Low-Voltage...

Drain heat exchangers are really expensive, this 3” by 48” copper one costs over $1000: https://www.homedepot.com/p/Power-Pipe-3-in-x-48-in-Drain-Wa...

quickthrowman··on Hitachi launches CO2 heat pump water heaters with solar-friendly tariff controls
The backup heat source of a heat pump is extremely nice to have if your furnace craps out, just shut off the gas supply and let the heat pump do its job. If I had to replace my A/C condenser I’d probably opt for a heat pump to replace it so that I’d have that option too.
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