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qlte

651 karma · joined June 22, 2026

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qlte··on AI-generated posters don’t have to be horrible
Revealed preference is a very real and useful phenomenon. But it seems to be increasingly overapplied as a convenient cop-out in scenarios where it's unclear any authentic preference is being revealed (e.g. due to confounding factors or active manipulation) and to exaggerate the extent to which real agency exists (externally predetermined outcomes).

Such as with RLHF-boosted writing from LLMs, where side by side comparisons of human vs. AI writing have been used as proof of revealed preference for AI. But an A/B test of a few sentences doesn't mean that someone would enjoy reading a 5000 word blog post in the same style, as the densely packed rhetorical flourishes become exhausting and repetitive tells start to jump off the page. Nor does it capture the signal/noise problem where despite technical ability and incredible verbosity, realization sets in that nothing in 2000 words has said anything at all while continually stringing the reader along. A side by side comparison with a few AI posters might be preferred in a five 5 minute test, but seeing the same visual elements from three frontier models in a loop on every surface for your entire life could quickly become actively repulsive.

And the problem with agency arises when limited freedom exists to truly make a different choice because the available options are externally determined. I've seen the argument made on HN that people's revealed preference is for AI maximalism, pointing to the fact that consumers keep buying products with AI, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent building new datacenters every year, workers (including creatives!) and students report using AI for daily work, etc.

But consumers aren't really given true choices that could reveal a real preference. The tech giants behind the phone duopoly have crammed AI features into both OS choices. With few exceptions every large company made an "AI strategy" their main focus since 2023 and competed to put chatbots and GenAI features into every inch of their product lines. Hyperscalers started a bidding war on datacenter buildouts in the expectation of future demand back when really only ChatGPT had any real market penetration outside the tech industry. Students and workers feel pressure to keep up with their peers by using AI to avoid getting fired/worse grades, artists struggling for work worry clients will go elsewhere if they take the time for their normal process.

Revealed preference when used haphazardly could be used to come to absurd conclusions like "people want to get scammed", "people like to be overweight", etc. Broadly and incautiously applied it just becomes a way to justify any given status quo as inherently optimally and reflective of collective will. With a creepy paternalistic implication that regardless of what you think you believe, forcing you do something against your will is secretly what you really want, and will make you happy even if you pretend not to realize it.

It's pretty questionable if a preference truly exists as "revealed" for something like AI art when it's preconditioned on active deception. An AI art-hater who gets tricked into picking AI doesn't mean they're lying/confused and actually love it. That sort of reasoning can get uncomfortably close to an anti-democratic argument for mass manipulation of people who can't be trusted to advocate in their own best interests.

qlte··on Why I didn’t sign the Fields medallists’ letter
Not if the billionaire who has been funding the endowment for their university's math department wakss up one morning to read a three sentence Claude summary of this thread, and says "hmm... sounds like what we really need is a ChatGPT moment for math" and decides to redirect his cash to the cutting edge of next gen slop generation tech instead.
qlte··on I don't like passkeys

  > With passkeys you're just SOL.
No more so than if you lose access to the device that's required for Google/Apple MFA prompts, neither of which use SMS and depend on a proprietary approval flow.

If you lose your phone in 2026 while on a trip to Italy and try to enter your Gmail user/pass from your wallet, there's about a 100.00% chance you'll hit a "let's verify you're you" gate, that's been the case for 5+ years.

With passkeys I'm not stuck clicking Yes in the Gmail app or typing in the numbers on Apple hardware, I can skip the Apple/Google specific MFA nonsense and keep the passkeys in Bitwarden where they sync seamlessly between devices.

It feels truly liberating being able to skip MFA everywhere and login with 1 click, like a throwback to the golden age of using a password manager in 2010. Before passkeys it started to feel like I was spending 5% of my waking hours every day copying 6 digit codes from phone/email/TOTP after twiddling my thumbs for 15-30 seconds.

qlte··on I don't like passkeys
> lack of backups if a device is lost/broken

That's not accurate. Bitwarden syncs passkeys across all my devices including both mobile/desktop (iOS/Android/MacOS/Windows/Fedora) using Chrome/Edge/Safari (I haven't tried Firefox).

KeepassXC is an open source alternative for cross-device synced passkeys. Marginally less secure than device bound passkeys but it's seamless and I save so much time now being able to login with one-click everywhere instead of wasting it on arbitrary "let's make sure you're you" MFA nonsense.

qlte··on I don't like passkeys
KeePassXC supports passkeys
qlte··on I don't like passkeys
They are 100% immune to credentials phishing. You literally cannot authenticate to an impersonator site based on cryptographic guarantees.

And yes, I know the happy path of password managers uses host-based autofill which does add some friction to phishing attempts, but given the prevalence of unexpected but legitimate urls with weird alternate subdomains/SSO/redirects in modern login flows, you have to manually autofill/add an exception often enough that it's possible to let your guard down once at the wrong time.

qlte··on I don't like passkeys
Yes, at this point I have probably saved literal hours in time added up by being able to skip MFA prompts on sites/apps I use regularly via a passkey login flow. It was becoming ridiculous how often I'd hit a "verify who you are with your phone/email" gate even on services I use constantly, a gigantic waste of time.
qlte··on I don't like passkeys
You can add multiple passkeys in the vast majority of websites that support them. There's nothing in the spec that prevents or discourages allowing multiple credentials. I do it on every site I care about so I can fallback to the OS passkey store if I lost access to my Bitwarden account for whatever reason.
qlte··on I don't like passkeys
You're not limited to a single passkey by the spec or 99% of sites that support them. The limit is arbitrary and typically when a limit exists it's no fewer than 3 (very rarely 1, but I've only seen that once that I can recall).

I generally add three, one for Bitwarden (my actual password manager), and then the OS passkey store (Android/Chrome password manager or iOS/Apple Passwords depending on the device).

qlte··on I don't like passkeys
I don't have any issues using Bitwarden as the default password manager on any of my devices, except the occasional Android/Google issue with apps where it opens the Chrome passkey store and doesn't prompt for Bitwarden.

But websites pretty much universally trigger the Bitwarden passkey prompt, or I can bypass via the popup and go to the OS passkey manager.

qlte··on Android 17 is the first since 3.x to add new APIs without releasing to the AOSP
Google and Samsung have a closer relationship than ever these days, with cross-branded Google features even featured in advertisements for the last couple Galaxy models which would have been unthinkable back in 2012 or so.

They have their private own agreements with Google to secure whatever access they need to maintain their OneUI fork and are not the one making any public complaints. Samsung did have a love/hate relationship with Google that was openly simmering with resentment during the early years of Android but those days are long past.

Samsung already includes their own Galaxy store alongside the Play Store on all their devices, and have for 10+ years. But during that time have actually moved the opposite direction from your hypothetical fork scenario and both companies clearly view their current relationship as mutually beneficial.

Even though GrapheneOS and Samsung both maintain their own Android fork their views on AOSP/Google are not aligned.

qlte··on Android 17 is the first since 3.x to add new APIs without releasing to the AOSP
That is definitely not how I remember the feature phone era. The OS was an afterthought seemingly whipped together a couple months before the device hit the shelves and nothing was ever consistent even across recent models from the same manufacturer.

Back then the primary goal was checkboxes for the carrier to advertise and UI/UX was a distant second priority at most. Sometimes an advertised feature would just flat out be unusable (such as MP3 players), but good luck waiting for any kind of update because by then those developers had already been reassigned to the next handset model they promised to carriers.

Also, Samsung extensively customizes their OneUI fork of Android, with its own UI look and feel that evolves independently from Android based on their own priorities. Plus Samsung's Android maintains hundreds of features that either don't exist at all on AOSP/Pixels or later get folded into mainline Android.

(Including the little known killer app suite "Good Lock" available on Samsung's Galaxy store which gives power users an almost obscene amount of additional niche options and customizations that would give UX minimalist designers at Google or Apple a heart attack)

But despite how different Pixel vs. OneUI look and feel, I can use the exact same apps whether on a Pixel or Galaxy or $100 trash phone. Interoperability is very easy to take for granted and Android app ecosystem is (still) paradise compared to the lowest common denominator J2ME "app" era of the 2000s.

qlte··on Claude Code now reads AGENTS.md if there is no Claude.md
It looks for Claude.md first so I don't understand what you think the problem is with the standard name as a fallback.
qlte··on Neovim have a ~$800k Bitcoin donation sitting untouched since 2023
An economy driven only by spending on bare essentials would be worse than Great Depression level malaise and stagnation. Where are you imagining growth would come from?
qlte··on Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse
No, that has the opposite effect: it's very, very common to see LWers write about having a bad time in school in late adolescence and how later finding like minded people online was powerful community bonding.

Eliezer himself first blogged at 17 about how miserable school was for him which led to him dropping out/home schooling after 8th grade and discovering the Extropians listserv. Ziz of the Zizians is another (infamous) example.

qlte··on Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse
Thank you, but I didn't actually need that spelled out. I simply accepted that a community with a thought leader who failed to recognize what to me was a self-evident lack of scientific rigor just wasn't for me.
qlte··on Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse
Come on, you can't get more unfalsifiable than "anything that disagrees with my idiosyncratic wordview is from an autonomous AI botnet".
qlte··on Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse
It appears you're using a motte and bailey to broaden P(doom) to include all the other non-Skynet reasons regular people hate SV. Doom in p(doom) refers to X-risk not unemployment and upward transfer of wealth.
qlte··on More than 100k people in Japan are now aged 100 or older
Yeah, it's laughable to think that somewhere in the DoD a map labeled like "Iran: Huge Undefended Drone Warehouses" has just been sitting around unused because Hegseth/Trump keep vetoing it on account of potential civilian casualties.

Sure, we could easily wrap this whole thing up a couple days but the admin is choosing to remain stuck in a quagmire that's dooming GOP in the midterms. Based on a moral red line, of all things. Makes perfect sense.

qlte··on Sex, AI, and the Apocalypse
A while back I saw LessWrong recommended on HN in a list of similar communities that included lobsters.rs, etc. I thought the design of the site looked really nice so browsed with a open mind (I didn't make the rationalism/LW/Eliezer connection).

At the time, one of the recommended posts that was soft-stickied at the top for 1 week + was:

"How to Make Superbabies"

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-mak...

Which, when I finally ended up clicking, was pretty much exactly what if sounds like from the title:

A long, meandering, manifesto full of selectively chosen charts and research findings with 38 mentions of "IQ", from a guy who has been unsuccessfully pitching investors on genetically modifying a grab bag of (dubiously) intelligence-associated genes in human babies.

Apart from the overall unhingedness, the part I found most striking while reading it was the off-the-chart level of self-confidence that flipping a bunch of genes on/off with CRISPR would have more or less zero risk of complications or unpredictable interactions. In his view, all that was holding back humanity's inevitable next step up the evolutionary ladder were the narrow-minded gatekeepers in the scientific establishment clinging to their so-called "ethics" and regressive "precautionary principle".

Without anything resembling experimentation to test his plan in animal models, yet alone early stage clinical trials for safety, he was willing to roll the dice on some unlucky baby dying in childbirth or living a life of agony from chronic disease based on some cherry picked papers he found on PubMed.

Because of the baffling hubris and my overall low impression of his intellectual honesty/rigor in the write up (clearly coming from a place of seeking to justify his own pre-existing beliefs), I opened the comments section expecting/hoping this was just some local nut who would be torn apart in the comment section.

But lo and behold, the very first comment at the top:

  Eliezer Yudkowsky

  One of the most important projects in the world.  Somebody should fund it.
... and thus ended my brief time trying out LW.
qlte··on The American Religion of Self-Storage Facilities

  > I somewhat expected my post would generate this type of attack
It may not have been your intention but your post had a combination of a somewhat smug, lecturing tone and patting oneself on the back which is a bit off-putting. And implicitly made a lot of assumptions about other parents' intentions/lived experience raising their children based on a single factor that's pretty insignificant like # of sq ft of child's belongings kept in the family home.

Also, for all you knew at the time you replied, OP could've still had stuff in their parents' attic because they joined the Marines at 18 and was even more independent than your own kids. There was a lot of projection onto a trivial story.

Plus "must be a generational issue" just sounds like more of the same "my generation was responsible/good/normal unlike kids these days" meme that gets repeated by every generation as they age and is tiresome to hear as an explanation for everything.

qlte··on Dario, Please
There's plenty of precedent for specific industries self-regulating in the US, typically motivated by the shared view that it would be less disruptive than heavy handed federal regulation.

Applying game theory problems like prisoner's dilemma to the real world requires collapsing a lot of overlapping and conflicting incentives to a single dimension which doesn't always work.

qlte··on Dario, Please
Exactly, despite the rosy image Anthropic carefully cultivated early on as the "responsible" alternative who would keep OpenAI honest, they pushed the frontier further, faster and harder than any other company. If we want to make this about game theory, they forced OpenAI to participate in an ever escalating arms race.

Who knows, maybe like Dario says, being on top as the good guy makes this justified? But the fact remains no one went as far as Anthropic did with Mythos so it's insulting to people's intelligence to now pretend like they've been reluctantly pushed forward by OpenAI despite their better judgement.

qlte··on The engineering behind the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Huh? The oil price shock in 2022 and resulting SPR drawdown had nothing to do with oil leases. Prices almost doubled worldwide in the span of a week after Russia invaded Ukraine. Look at any chart of petroleum products and it's clearly visible as a huge, almost vertical line.

The explicit purpose of the SPR is to function as a lever to smooth temporary supply shocks. The US increasing oil output by a few percent in either direction wouldn't have made any difference to global disruption of oil markets from a major exporter to Europe starting a war and then getting sanctioned.

qlte··on A warning about 'model welfare'
Yes it's seemingly the go-to rebuttal, I've lost count of how many times I've seen it with barely any variation.

Not sure if it's a product of LessWrong or Slate Star Codex or something. I kinda suspect it might be LW, given how it superficially resembles an unanswerable philosophical paradox but in reality is about as challenging as a question posed in a 200 level philosophy course like introduction to ethics.

qlte··on A warning about 'model welfare'
This argument would be difficult to reconcile if we didn't have billions of examples of humans forming memories plus modern evolutionary biology to trivially demonstrate such cases are rare pathologies but still human beings.
qlte··on OpenAI expands ChatGPT ads with Sponsored Agents
I heard similar anecdotes about Insta ads being the rare example of showing products that were relevant and useful, sold by a "small" business (the appearance of one at least).

That seemed to peak around 2022... So I may be wrong but assumed Insta ads have now converged with the rest of e-commerce on misleading eye-catching 100% AI imagery of drop-shipped throwaway products (like those garden hose spray attachments in a tacticool pistol design or giant mugs).

Is that not a problem yet?

qlte··on Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking
My issue using the voice mode is the overly expressive mimicry of natural human intonation is distracting and starts to become extremely grating after a while.

There's one or two I find more understated but I would love a 2026 SOTA V2V model that speaks clearly but without the artificial personality layered on.

Human interaction/theory of mind relies so much on non-verbal clues for interpreting emotion/intent and so for me having those neurons firing constantly while talking to an LLM just for an emotional no-op is exhausting to put up with for more than a couple minutes.

There's one male voice that would make me assume someone was sarcastically mocking me if I was talking to an actual person because it's just so over the top.

qlte··on XCancel service is suspended until further notice
A vibrant ecosystem of full-featured 3rd party apps able to offer unique spin on the UX, tailored to different preferences of their user base who are willing to pay is a good thing. Not an indicator of a problem.

Now for Twitter/X we get One (1) ad-infested first party app requiring login/tracking, an unusably crippled logged out web view, and an API exposing a limited subset of data with a tiny free tier.

Is that really better than 10 years ago?

qlte··on XCancel service is suspended until further notice
...really?

Elon Musk declares ‘cis’ and ‘cisgender’ will be considered slurs on Twitter that can be punishable with suspension

https://fortune.com/2023/06/21/elon-musk-declares-cis-cisgen...

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