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phantasmish

1,146 karma · joined October 31, 2025

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phantasmish··on Estimates are difficult for developers and product owners
What's wild about software is we don't do 1/10th as much planning as "real" engineering projects do, and also find ways to create problems akin to the ones they run into from interfacing with an unpredictable real-world environment, by inventing ways for all our platforms and libraries and such to be insanely unstable.

If you're not subject to the batshit insanity of the broader software market, and you crank the planning up a little closer to what "real" engineering does, software delivery gets extremely predictable. See: NASA's Space Shuttle software development processes.

(There are actual, not self-inflicted, problems with software development that "real" engineering doesn't see, though—for one thing, you can't on a whim completely restructure a building that's already been built, and for another, you generally don't have to design real-world engineering projects to defend against the case of intentional sabotage by someone who's just e.g. using the bathroom—it may happen, but it's rare and short of wacky Mission Impossible type plans, busting a water pipe in the bathroom isn't going to get you access to super-secret documents or anything like that)

phantasmish··on Kidney Recipient Dies After Transplant from Organ Donor Who Had Rabies
FTA: “only four donors have transmitted rabies to recipients since 1979”

ONLY?! Rabies cases are really uncommon! I’m seeing 17 in the us from 2015-2024. Even assume double or triple the rates in earlier decades and, what, maybe 200 since 1978? 2-4% chance a given person who dies of rabies has their organs given to someone else? That’s an order of magnitude higher than I’d have guessed. WTF.

phantasmish··on Advertising as a major source of human dissatisfaction (2019) [pdf]
We could always allow opt-in advertising (“send me your monthly/weekly/whatever catalog”) and ban the unsolicited kind. This could extend to asking for things like trade magazines or email newsletters or what have you.

Useful kind preserved, evil kind squashed.

phantasmish··on A $20 drug in Europe requires a prescription and $800 in the U.S.
> go to an ER (can't be turned away)

This won’t work too well for most stuff. They don’t have to treat anything you present with, and don’t have to fully treat even e.g. a heart attack. They just have to stabilize you. So they can turn you away under most medical circumstances. Like you’re not going to get free chemo or (non-emergency) prenatal care or what have you. They also can triage you into the “maybe in twelve hours… maybe” group until you go away if you don’t seem like you’re dying, or likely to pay.

phantasmish··on Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros
Like vertical integration isn't always bad 100% of the time, but this particular case of marrying distribution and production seems to serve minimal beneficial purpose and inevitably the main outcome is high levels of rents-collection and squeezing the people doing the actual creative work. There's pretty much nothing but up-side to forcing the two roles to remain separate.

It's probably got something to do with copyright. Like the way it interacts with markets makes this sort of arrangement net-harmful pretty much any time you see it.

phantasmish··on Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros
> I want a separation between the streaming platform companies and the content making companies, so that the streaming companies can compete on making a better platform/service and the content companies compete on making better content.

Exactly the correct solution.

We did something similar with movie theaters and film studios for decades, up until a couple years ago. Same sort of problem, same solution should work.

phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
The grain’s got randomness because distribution and size of grains is random, but it’s not noise, it’s the “resolution limit” (if you will) of the picture itself. The whole picture is grain. The film is grain. Displaying that is accurately displaying the picture. Erasing it for compression’s sake is tossing out information, and adding it back later is just an effect to add noise.

I’m ok with that for things where I don’t care that much about how it looks (do I give a shit if I lose just a little detail on Happy Gilmore? Probably not) and agree that faking the grain probably gets you a closer look to the original if you’re gonna erase the grain for better compression, but if I want actual high quality for a film source then faked grain is no good, since if you’re having to fake it you definitely already sacrificed a lot of picture quality (because, again, the grain is the picture, you only get rid of it by discarding information from the picture)

phantasmish··on After 40 years of adventure games, Ron Gilbert pivots to outrunning Death
My wife works a lot with LLMs and writing, and some time in episode 3 she was like, “I’m pretty sure a lot of this was written by AI.”

The long talking-in-circles conversations, especially.

That’s in addition to repeating everything several times, which is just a Netflix bad-on-purpose thing to account for people who aren’t paying much attention.

phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
I dunno, but if there is grain in the source it may erase it (discarding information) then invent new grain (noise) later.
phantasmish··on Warner Bros Begins Exclusive Deal Talks With Netflix
If the poster just wants sci fi (and especially if that doesn’t include sci fi horror without space ships) I could see them only getting one or two good movies per year.

Me, I’d need two or three more lifetimes to get through my probably-good list of movies and tv, just for single watches… but I’m up for just about any genre.

phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
I watch a lot of stuff from the first 110ish years of cinema. For the most recent 25, and especially 15… yeah I dunno, maybe, but easier to just avoid it.

I do sometimes end up with av1 for streaming-only stuff, but most of that looks like shit anyway, so some (more) digital smudging isn’t going to make it much worse.

phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
I watch almost everything in Infuse on Apple TV or in my browser, though.
phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
I’m not looking to disable film grain, if it’s part of the source.
phantasmish··on Netflix’s AV1 Journey: From Android to TVs and Beyond
I avoid av1 downloads when possible because I don’t want to have to figure out how to disable film grain synthesis and then deal with whatever damage that causes to apparent quality on a video that was encoded with it in mind. Like I just don’t want any encoding that supports that, if I can stay away from it.
phantasmish··on The RAM shortage comes for us all
I do sometimes reflect on how 64MB of memory was enough to browse the Web with two or three tabs open, and (if running BeOS) even play MP3s at the same time with no stutters. 128MB felt luxurious at that time, it was like having no (memory-imposed) limits on personal computing tasks at all.

Now you can't even fit a browser doing nothing into that memory...

phantasmish··on Autism should not be treated as a single condition
There's a whole genre of viral social media posts that amount to lumping anyone who appears to have cared quite a bit about something that's not obviously exciting (to most other people) into the autism spectrum. Especially historical figures. "This guy made tons of detailed beetle drawings and cataloged them in books! See, there have always been autistic folks, because he definitely was!"

Like I mean maybe, but also he was a bored rich aristocrat before TV was invented, and sometimes there are no parties going on or everyone's hiding in their country estates because of a cholera outbreak or whatever, and "making shitloads of drawings and organizing them" was like 50% of scientific work at the time. So. Maybe he just had a lot of time to kill.

Going by randos posting online, "liking things" and "knowing stuff" and "caring about things" are all autistic traits when present in any but the tiniest of degrees. It's ridiculous.

phantasmish··on Microsoft drops AI sales targets in half after salespeople miss their quotas
> Tech optimizes for revealed preference in the moment.

I appreciate the way you distinguish this from actual revealed preference, which I think is key to understanding why what tech is doing is so wrong (and, bluntly, evil) despite it being what "people want". I like the term "revealed impulse" for this distinction.

It's the difference between choosing not to buy a bag of chips at the store or a box of cookies, because you know it'll be a problem and your actual preference is not to eat those things, and having someone leave chips and cookies at your house without your asking, and giving in to the impulse to eat too many of them when you did not want them in the first place.

Example from social media: My "revealed preference" is that I sometimes look at and read comments from shit on my Instagram algo feed. My actual preference is that I have no algo feed, just posts on my "following" tab, or at least that I could default my view to that. But IG's gone out of their way (going so far as disabling deep link shortcuts to the following tab, which used to work) to make sure I don't get any version of my preference.

So I "revealed" that my preference is to look at those algo posts sometimes, but if you gave me the option to use the app to follow the few accounts I care about (local businesses, largely) but never see algo posts at all, ever, I'd hit that toggle and never turn it off. That's my actual preference, despite whatever was "revealed". That other preference isn't "revealed" because it's not even an option.

phantasmish··on RAM is so expensive, Samsung won't even sell it to Samsung
I’m worried about the Valve mini PC coming out next year.

Instant buy $700 or under. Probably buy up to $850. At, like, $1,100, though… solid no. And I’m counting on that thing to take the power-hog giant older Windows PC tower so bulky it’s unplugged and in a closet half the time, out of my house.

phantasmish··on Transparent leadership beats servant leadership
All these trendy management things either go back to straight-up bullshit (this is the more common case) or some non-bullshit thing that's been ripped out of its original context such that it becomes bullshit.
phantasmish··on Acme, a brief history of one of the protocols which has changed the Internet
> The NSA is no longer listening because there is TLS everywhere? Sure, and the earth is flat.

I’d be very surprised if they haven’t had several of the root trust entities compromised from day one. I wouldn’t rely on TLS with any of the typical widely-deployed trust chains for any secrecy at all if your opponent is US intelligence.

phantasmish··on Programming peaked
In my head?

Something like slurring the word “internationalization” combined with 18. “Ill-ateen-yon”

(In general I hate these numeric abbreviations, they’re terribly opaque to anyone who’s not clued in)

phantasmish··on It’s time to free JavaScript (2024)
I had a flash ad take 100% of my cpu back around 2005 or so. It wasn’t even trying to be malicious, just a poorly made ad. That was the day I stopped allowing any site exceptions in my ad blocker.

Of course 100% of that cpu is probably 1/10 of one core on any of my modern machines, so an ordinary and not-broken ad laden page routinely eats several times as many cycles now. Progress!

phantasmish··on Programming peaked
Haha, oh my, no. That would be silly.

Clearly it’s “Kates”. Like “sk8er boy”.

phantasmish··on How elites could shape mass preferences as AI reduces persuasion costs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Before_Civilization

Last I checked there hadn’t been major shifts away from the perspective this represents, in anthropology.

It was used as a core text in one of my classes in college, though that was a couple decades ago. I recall being confused about why it was such a big deal, because I’d not encountered the “peaceful savage” idea in any serious context, but I gather it was widespread in the ‘80s and earlier.

phantasmish··on “Captain Gains” on Capitol Hill
Citizens United isn’t a law, it’s a shitty Supreme Court decision. It’s on the long list of obvious problems we can’t fix without first reforming the courts (I favor increasing the justice count to match the number of circuits, and also drawing the Supreme Court justices by lot for each session from the “lower” courts—shouldn’t be any constitutional issues with that approach, so it’s just a normal law, and it ought to be easier to sell than simply expanding the court and “packing” it since it’s less-partisan)
phantasmish··on The "Mad Men" in 4K on HBO Max Debacle
Not just that, they seem to have also applied some weird auto-cropping that made “choices” no human doing the job would have, meaning that in some scenes characters who were meant to be in frame aren’t, then suddenly and surprisingly appear when there’s a cut to another angle (this is usually in group dialog scenes—like “oh that’s who they were talking to!”)
phantasmish··on Accepting US car standards would risk European lives
Unaffordable?

What’s the total cost of all road maintenance vs amount spent on groceries? How about vs all groceries plus all home goods?

phantasmish··on School cell phone bans and student achievement
I know a bunch of teachers. This is true.

Some (like, one or two per hundred students or so) may occasionally call their kid when they know they’re in class. Not because there’s a family emergency or something (and c’mon, you can still call the office for that) but just to shoot the shit. Talk about a WTF.

phantasmish··on Amazon launches Trainium3
I once used one of their services (I forget which, but I think it was there serverless product) that “supported” Java.

… but the official command line tools had show-stopper bugs if you were deploying Java to this service, that’d been known for months, and some features couldn’t be used in Java, and the docs were only like 20% complete.

But this work-in-progress alpha (not even beta quality because it couldn’t plausibly be considered feature complete) counted as “supported” alongside other languages that were actually supported.

(This was a few years ago and this particular thing might be a lot better now, but it shows how little you can trust their marketing pages and GUI AWS dashboards)

phantasmish··on IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off
YOLO Co-Lo Casa House
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