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patrickgzill

2,377 karma · joined September 25, 2009

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patrickgzill··on From H.P., a Blunder That Seems to Beat All
IT is a good point, but HP does not have the Fed to backstop their losses, nor to loan them money at almost no cost.
patrickgzill··on Mathematica 9 Is Released Today
Things similar to lambda calculus, look like lambda calculus?
patrickgzill··on Linode Simplifies Plans, Reveals CPU Priority
Even that is not accurate... on an OpenVZ instance set for 2 cores, this command gives me the specs on the CPU, an E5405, twice. Of course, this chip actually has 4 cores, so to show only 2 is not really accurate.

On a nearly-identical XenServer instance, it shows the same info, showing 2 CPUs but identifying the CPU as a 6-core Opteron.

From this, however, you cannot infer what percentage of those 2 virtual CPUs that you are going to get.

patrickgzill··on Gondolas Could Be the Next Great Urban Transportation Device
I fondly remember being able to go many places in Manila, Philippines, in the downtown shopping/restaurant core, using only my feet - they had elevated walkways to take you over the busy traffic and the malls were inter-connected.

You could walk for quite some time and never be at ground level. Most people can walk 1 km extra per day and never notice losing any time, given the savings in waiting for transit or getting into and out of a car.

patrickgzill··on Zillow Acquires HotPads For $16 Million To Grow Its Rental Marketplace
Assuming they are willing to keep up with all needed paperwork, credit checks, repair expenses, etc.
patrickgzill··on World Bank envisions a +4°C future
I am not using an "appeal to authority" argument, but I figure the HN readership would have pointed out my errors. (It's certainly happened before :-) )

We do not understand even the basics. For instance, we do not fully understand how the Gulf Stream works.

The problem is that we can't just sum or multiply the uncertainty values and try to arrive at a consensus.

Perhaps an analogy can be made to trying to model the US or Europe's financial system - clearly even the largest banks, spending large amounts of money on IT systems and modeling over the past number of years, have grossly mis-calculated things. And the financial world is arguably less dynamic than Earth's climate system.

patrickgzill··on World Bank envisions a +4°C future
Not two weeks ago I posted this: === We were told back in the late 1980s and early 1990s that huge computer models were written, that ran on supercomputers, to model and predict climate change.

The fastest Cray in 1990 could do (I think) 60 GFlops when loaded with 32 processors, which is roughly the sustained GFlops as a high end i7.

So clearly it is not a case of "just need a faster supercomputer and we will have an accurate prediction".

Reality is, from what I can tell, is that we don't have an accurate mathematical model of all the pieces that go into global climate to run on a supercomputer, no matter how powerful. ===

No one challenged me and I got several upvotes and follow-on posts in agreement. link: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4761364

Did something change in the meantime?

patrickgzill··on HP takes a $8.8 billion writeoff, alleging Autonomy accounting fraud
Deloitte (large accounting firm) signed off on the independant auditor's report... summary here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-20/deloittes-2011-auto...

Is it just me, or does this kind of stuff scream "the system itself, allows massive fraud to occur" ?

patrickgzill··on On BritRuby
I didn't realize we had to engage in nose-counting when evaluating the value of a conference on a technical topic.
patrickgzill··on Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
The AAPL-watchers at ZeroHedge.com take the view that hedge funds are heavily invested in AAPL and that if they leave the stock price will go down due to heavy selling. Further an avalanche of selling could be set in motion if 1 hedge fund sells enough to cause other hedge funds to decide to sell as well.

See e.g. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-08/apple-enters-gravti...

Note: VWAP means "volume weighted average price" and ES refers to contracts that track the price of the S&P 500 : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/e-mini...

patrickgzill··on Liberalising migration could deliver a huge boost to global output
There are at least 40 million people who either have green cards or have become citizens, who were not born in the USA.

Plus all the illegals who are not supposed to vote (but it is reasonable to assume that some small percentage of them do).

patrickgzill··on Google opens up on seven years of its data center history
Or drives it to black market. Canada implemented a VAT-like GST - in a country of 30 million, the first year it was implemented an estimated $1 billion underground (non-GST-paying) economy was formed.
patrickgzill··on Google opens up on seven years of its data center history
Sorry, a carbon tax will do absolutely nothing for the environment - the money will just go into the general fund, that is, the same slush fund that politicians already use for buying votes and paying off contributors to their re-election fund.
patrickgzill··on Firestorm Erupts Over Virginia's Education Goals
President Bush may or may not have been an idiot, but his speechwriter coined a useful phrase, "the soft bigotry of low expectations".
patrickgzill··on U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
If for some reason, coal to oil (synfuel or syncrude) were to be ramped up, it could be quite astounding. There are only trial runs at this point, however.

Germany during the WWII era was able to produce 75% of their oil needs due to synfuels. Once the plants were bombed or disrupted, Germany ran out of fuel and lost the war.

patrickgzill··on Samsung Galaxy Beam review: stay for the projector, but nothing more
Too late to edit my post - but I would like to say I do not claim credit for it, it would be silly of me to do so. Now I have to go rent The Island :-)
patrickgzill··on Why David Petraeus’s Gmail account is a national security issue
Telco's log everything! So it would not have been difficult, if you could connect the phone number to him, to track everything else.
patrickgzill··on Samsung Galaxy Beam review: stay for the projector, but nothing more
I am a little proud to say, I suggested this in 2005:

"There has to be at least one unique feature. I suggest some sort of projection display that allows you to project (for maybe 5 seconds at a time) what is on your screen to any reasonably flat surface like a wall. This would allow you to show your buddy or boss a document or a picture. An inexpensive LED bulb or two plus the ability to project 640×480 if that, is all that is needed."

Comment #6, here: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2005/09/23/could-a-mobile...

patrickgzill··on An inside look behind Romney's loss: An epic failure of its Orca big-data app
That is not what I said... key sentence is "That critical Libertarian slice or whatever you want to call it, of the traditional Republican base, was demoralized over Ron Paul and that resulted in an Obama victory."

Meaning the libertarian section of the Republican base, not meaning the people who necessarily voted for Gary Johnson.

patrickgzill··on Childhood Autism and Assortative Mating
He has limited his data to the USA; but should we not also see increases in Europe and UK as well, given the similar shifts in society and the manner in which people choose their spouses?

If there were other factors that were found in the USA but not found in other countries (whatever that may be, environmental or otherwise) then there would be statistically significant divergence.

patrickgzill··on An inside look behind Romney's loss: An epic failure of its Orca big-data app
The RNC establishment absolutely HATES Ron Paul's guts. Given the slap in the face to all the RP volunteers, a large percentage of them voted for the Libertarian candidate in protest, voted for Obama as a protest, or did not even vote.

If you look at Ohio, Florida, and Virginia (I am going from memory here) - the votes gotten by the libertarian candidate represented a large portion of votes needed to swing the state to Romney. And those 3 states' EC votes would have put Romney a lot closer, giving him 266 EC votes. Add in Colorado (numbers below) and he would have won.

Florida: 29EC votes; difference was 61,000 votes, L. got 44,000 votes

Ohio: 18E votes: difference was 104,000 votes, L got 47,000

Virginia: 13EC votes: difference was 116,000, L and Constitution parties got 44,000 .

Colorado: 9EC votes: difference was 113,000, L and Constitution got 37,000 .

Clausewitz, in his treatise "On War" dedicates an entire chapter to "Moral Forces" , what we would term "an organization's morale" .

Did crappy software contribute? Perhaps.

But wars and elections are not won by software, but by people.

That critical Libertarian slice or whatever you want to call it, of the traditional Republican base, was demoralized over Ron Paul and that resulted in an Obama victory.

Description of rule changes at RNC convention: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/28/news/la-pn-ron-paul-...

patrickgzill··on MIT’s Freaky Non-Stick Coating Keeps Ketchup Flowing
Most ketchup these days is made with HFCS and is loaded with sugary non-goodness.

My solution is a lot simpler: I cut ketchup out of my diet.

patrickgzill··on The People's Bailout
What if the person contests the debt in some way, but OWS buys it and forgives it anyway? Would the IRS agree that contested debt should be treated differently come tax time?
patrickgzill··on Climate Predictions: Worst-Case May Be Most Accurate, Study Finds
We were told back in the late 1980s and early 1990s that huge computer models were written, that ran on supercomputers, to model and predict climate change.

The fastest Cray in 1990 could do (I think) 60 GFlops when loaded with 32 processors, which is roughly the sustained GFlops as a high end i7.

So clearly it is not a case of "just need a faster supercomputer and we will have an accurate prediction".

Reality is, from what I can tell, is that we don't have an accurate mathematical model of all the pieces that go into global climate to run on a supercomputer, no matter how powerful.

patrickgzill··on Obama's Secret Weapon In The South is 129 Million Years Old
Summary: a lot of black people voted for Obama, giving him the edge in certain states.
patrickgzill··on Obama Wins The Election. Here’s His Technology Agenda.
And if it just happens to benefit major contributors and bundlers to the party of the President that is in power, well, that is entirely a coincidence!
patrickgzill··on Inside the Secret World of the Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
Compare the hyperbole in the article, breathlessly talking about the geniuses on the campaign - then compare with the hard numbers compiled in the link I posted.
patrickgzill··on Why is Rick Santorum Using a Picture of 4Chan Founder Moot on His Website?
LOLWUT
patrickgzill··on Colorado measure legalizing marijuana passes
Not the only purpose to be sure, however it was explicitly mentioned as a rationale for staying out of the European theater completely.

The idea was to allow Germany and Russia to slug it out, completely exhausting both countries.

See for example the views of Charles Lindbergh (search for Russia) : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/lindbergh/sfeature/fallen.html

America's strength is why the USD became the reserve currency of the world. Note that the Bretton Woods conference was held in 1944, before the war ended: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

patrickgzill··on Colorado measure legalizing marijuana passes
Look at who the owners of breweries and distilleries were pre-Prohibition, and after. Before - small businesses, essentially micro-brewers, spread out across the country. After - Anheuser-Busch and a few others. QED.
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