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pathdependent

1,516 karma · joined November 22, 2011

http://falsifiable.com
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pathdependent··on Saddle: Scala Data Library
Thank you!

Most of my colleagues do data analysis in Python given Numpy+SciPy. I like Python, but if possible, I'd rather do as much of my development in a single language, and I prefer Scala.

This library certainly does not replicate the extensive functionality offered in Python for data analysis, but it does have the potential to seed Scala development. I for one will be perusing the code this weekend, and picking an avenue for subsequent exploration.

pathdependent··on Show HN: Optimized trading algorithms using IPython parallel and ec2
The third or forth slide causes my IPad's instance of Safari to crash. (IOS 6.1.3)
pathdependent··on How I Beat Depression
Consider seeing a therapist. Seriously.

Most people have exposure to death when they are young, but for some people -- for whatever reason -- it's more traumatic. It can become corrosive, subtly or not so subtly, affecting the decisions you make in a harmful way. Personally, I had cancer at a young age, and for years it screwed up the way I saw the world, without me even recognizing it. It took another crisis-type event for me to recognize it. Trust me, if it is something you are already cognizant of, it's better to deal with it now to prevent future crises, then to wait until then.

pathdependent··on Berkshire and 3G Capital to Buy Heinz for $23 Billion
Check out the call options yesterday. Either Buffet's traders were implementing some hedge strategy, or someone made a fat insider trade. Zero hedge covered it: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/so-who-leaked-heinz...
pathdependent··on Tinke: Heart rate, blood oxygen level and more at your fingertip
Re: #2, from http://www.zensorium.com/tinke/specs.html:

   WARNING

   Tinké is NOT a medical device. Tinké and its associated
   applications should not be used to diagnose, treat, or
   prevent any disease or medical condition. Always seek 
   the advice of a qualified medical professional.
It seems like the same type of logic applied to over-the-counter drugs that call themselves supplements -- it's not a "drug" if the marketers don't make certain claims. In the case of Tinké, they are providing a means for collecting data and do not make any claims that the product will directly affect your health.
pathdependent··on Ask HN: Best books you read in 2012
I like Taleb's books. His ideas are far from novel -- especially to people who work with complex systems -- but his books are engaging. When I read them, I rarely find that I'm impressed by anything he said, yet I'm _always_ inspired to explore some tangent, which I think is very valuable. However, you have to take him with a grain of salt. The arrogance is a bit much.
pathdependent··on Why we Die
Agreed.

Also, some of the recent treatment modalities are genuinely revolutionary. For example, Gleevec (subsequently exposed problems aside) is pretty damn amazing. Obviously, new things are becoming possible because of a long-growing body of research. The question is whether we have reached the tipping point. As I said previously, I'm optimistic -- I think we have. That being said, cancer is fucking complex and even if we were at some tipping point, progress is measured in years and decades, not weeks as the breathless popsci articles always seem to imply.

pathdependent··on Why we Die
Would you happen to have a link? I've been interested in toying around with this idea (just for fun) for a while, but I haven't started doing the actual research.

My instinct would be that (biological) immortality is (mostly) non-existant not only because there is no evolutionary pressure not to die, but because there is evolutionary pressure to die after begetting offspring. Very long lived progenitors would homogenize the gene pool, if not by incest then by sheer number of offspring. This would make them fragile in the face of both genetic errors and environmental shifts.

To counter this fragility, child birth might be infrequent. However, if child birth is infrequent, there is an increased probability of death before child birth.

pathdependent··on Why we Die
This is a very good point. Although the data (at this link) are not isolated, using a GUI window as a ruler, you can see a clear decrease, just not a visually compelling one. And yes, I agree that as you reduce the mortality associated with other diseases, getting cancer becomes more likely.

What would be more interesting to see, in this particular context, is the mortality associated with different disease groups for different age cohorts. For example, how has the treatment for cancer progressed for people between 40 and 50, rather than all cohorts at once.

pathdependent··on Why we Die
It was a "well done visual," and does put some things into perspective. For example, the "War on Cancer" began in about 1971. While I'm optimistic about the near-term future in cancer treatment, the chart doesn't reflect much historic clinical success.
pathdependent··on Network Theory Breakthrough Reveals The Origin Of Outbreaks
The hops were on communities connected by water supplies, not social graphs. In the graph of communities connected by water supplies, 4 hops is relatively short. (See Figure 3b in http://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.2534v1.pdf)

Unfortunately, I agree with you that it is difficult to judge the efficacy of "less than 4 hops" without providing some network metrics. By eye-balling figure 3b, it looks like the graph diameter is in the 30s, and the average degree of a community appears to be about three. Given an outbreak, less than 4 hops given (initially) limited surveillance could be important.

pathdependent··on Network Theory Breakthrough Reveals The Origin Of Outbreaks
Social network analysis (SNA) is increasingly a method of analysis for many fields. Epidemiology is fascinating, but before deciding to jump into a new field, think about how it may apply to your own sphere of interests.

Since you said you're a programmer, my advice would be to find or collect some data you are interested in, and play with Python's networkx.[1] For some starter data, check out Stanfords Large Network Dataset Collection.[2]

[1] http://networkx.lanl.gov/ [2] http://snap.stanford.edu/data/

(Why were people down-voting this? It looked like a sincere question.)

pathdependent··on A Well-Funded Startup Emerges From the Unemployment Lines
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4383001
pathdependent··on Named Parameters in Java
Although the solution produces too many problems, I agree that named parameters are highly desirable for readability and the prevention of bugs. Have there been any proposals for Java 8 to included named parameters?

Edit:

* http://openjdk.java.net/jeps/118 proposes run-time storing of parameter names -- not what is desired, but in the same ballpark.

* http://web.archiveorange.com/archive/v/bobySzLnuDWgr47zqwU9 proposes named arguments for making clean code.

pathdependent··on Company withdrawing from Facebook as analytics show 80% of ad clicks from bots
It's a cat and mouse game. Google gets good at it; scammers get more sophisticated; google catches up again; ad infinitum. Also, in addition to the scam mentioned above -- in Google's case, targeting AdWords -- they have to deal with scammers hitting their own AdSense properties.

It's a well known problem. Considering AdWords is Google's primary source of revenue, they work hard at it. For a tiny bit more directly from Google, see: http://support.google.com/adwords/bin/answer.py?hl=en&an...

pathdependent··on Company withdrawing from Facebook as analytics show 80% of ad clicks from bots
Yes. This used to happen a lot on ad networks, although I personally don't know how pervasive it is now.

The game is as jiggy said. Force competing ad buyers to pay for what appears to be non-productive traffic by forcing ad clicks. Since the real views are dominated by false views, the conversion rate on whatever is being sold appears to be horrible. The competitor goes elsewhere, and the scammer maintains access to artificially cheap ad inventory, since there are fewer bidders.

pathdependent··on Twitter down
I thought it was interesting that it was down in a way that I was receiving raw ERB.

(At least, I think it's erb; twitter still uses rails for the front-end, I think.)

pathdependent··on Apple Reports Third Quarter Results
The drop came after the results were reported.
pathdependent··on Next Hacker News DC Meetup is Tomorrow, July 17th
I've only gone to two. I'm in grad school and classes are usually 4:30-7:30 and an hour metro ride, so I rarely make it in time.

Of the two I have been to, I've had some pretty interesting (and wild) conversations.

pathdependent··on Next Hacker News DC Meetup is Tomorrow, July 17th
See you there.

(Although it would typically be cause for a downvote, I'm going to point out that they have good buffalo wings.)

pathdependent··on Three Months with Sublime Text 2
I agree. When I start feeling stressed out about some code, I usually like to print it out and walk away from my computer to review it. Sitting outside with a copy of code that I cannot edit is very helpful sometimes.

Right now, I often will minimize (metaphorically) my ST2 editor; open up a copy of my code in gEdit; print it out; close gEdit; and, maximize ST2. That's not cool.

pathdependent··on Three Months with Sublime Text 2
Ignoring what other users have said (bloat, speed, noise, etc), I find that my code in an editor like ST2/TextMate/VIM ends up being substantially better and more maintainable than code written in a full-blow IDE. The full-blow IDE may mask code smell by making it easy to push on when things get ugly.

For a trivial example, if you can't remember the name of some function you wrote in another module, it may be the case that the function was poorly named or the code you are currently writing is trying to do too many things. In an full-blown IDE, it doesn't feel wrong; in a simple text editor, it actually hurts. (Yes, ST2 has autocomplete, but IIRC, it's based on a tokenizer, not a parser. In either case, I operate with it disabled.)

IMHO, it's a trade-off. It requires marginally more mental effort to compose code without the features of a full-blown IDE. This marginal increase in effort may slow me down considerably in the beginning to middle parts of a project compared to someone using a full-blown IDE; however, by the time I "catch up," my code will probably be more conducive to safe expansion and maintenance, and for all but trivial projects, that's the majority of development time.

pathdependent··on Microsoft Research make breakthrough in audio speech recognition
Thank you for doing so!

Overwhelmingly, it is my experience that researchers in computational disciplines publish papers with half-finished code "available on request" -- and requests are often ignored. It's refreshing to hear someone say, "Yes, the code needs work, but it should be available."

pathdependent··on Master's dissertation on Lolcats
My view on a dissertation -- whether it be for a masters degree or a Ph.D. -- is that the contribution is not the important part. Instead, the goal is to demonstrate an ability to do "good research" (TM). People find very narrow topics because thesis advisors prefer it. If you had an already well-studied topic, it is more difficult to access as original work. Yes, ideally you want to find something novel, narrow, and practically useful, but grad students primarily want their degree first.
pathdependent··on Mozilla Thimble
I am not getting that message.
pathdependent··on Sortfolio auction ends with no bidders
A few people have mentioned that they might have just did it for publicity. Initially, I was skeptical, but I'm starting to think it makes the most sense.

Given the prospect of a severe revenue dip once Sortfolio is detached from the 37 signals brand, the asking price (450,000) is very high. Moreover, as far as I can tell, they didn't respond to bidder questions on flippa. To me, it seems like the bidders and the auction were ancillary to their actual intent. Like other posters, I think their actual intent was to gain publicity for the 37Signals brand (not Sortfolio).

I expect they will follow through on their original pronouncement by shutting down Sortfolio soon; however, I don't think they ever had any intention to sell it. I think they are smart enough to know that someone with 450,000 in cash is also probably smart enough to know that it was a bad deal. By providing a spectacle by way of flippa, the narrative is now more impressive, they reaped a lot of positive press, and they reinforced their commitment to their core products.

pathdependent··on Sortfolio auction only has 24 hours left with 0 Bids
I think they set the minimum bid too high.

The fear that there will be a lot of customers who fail to reenroll after the transfer is well founded. Ditto to the idea that it wouldn't survive independent of the 37signals brand. Consequently, an opening bid at greater than one year revenue is much too high.

pathdependent··on Biological Intelligence is Only a Transitory Phenomenon

   If these scientists are right, and I think they are, the most advanced civilizations in the universe have transcended biology and moved on to a post-biological phase of their evolution. If we want to become an advanced civilization and colonize the stars, this is what we must do.
I don't disagree with the premise, but I always find the narrative odd. If and when machine intelligence transcends human intelligence, it's not "we" -- it's us and them. One species will cease to be at the other's expense.
pathdependent··on The danger of using averages alone in web analytics
Sometimes that's better.

I think the more important point is that knowledge of the underlying distribution -- normal (Gaussian), log-normal, exponential, power law, Weibull, etc -- is very important. The more skewed the underlying distribution, the less relevant the mean becomes -- and it can cause you to make some very bad inferences.

pathdependent··on Introducing "Mozilla Webmaker:" helping the world make the web
I think the idea and some of the tools (e.g. Popcorn) are interesting. At this point, I think more non-professionals are making videos than web pages. With something like Popcorn, you learn web development in service of making your video presentation more interesting. They are almost tricking you into learning web development.

It's a new form of an old pattern: getting people motivated to learn something by re-framing it. (See: SmallTalk, Logo, Processing, etc.)

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