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ozb

95 karma · joined August 10, 2020

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ozb··on Terraformer Mark One – cheap natural gas from sunlight and air
So roughly $100k/(5*120 tons CO2) + 2 million kWh/(5*120 ton CO2) --> 5*2300 Mcf

Ie $167 + 3333 kWh will turn 1 ton CO2 into 19 Mcf

At $0.10/kWh, this is equivalent to paying $500 to remove 1 ton of CO2 from the atmosphere. This goes down to $300 if we assume solar can generate power at $0.04/kWh, particularly off-grid and without need for storage.

And it apparently turns out that the Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes the synthetic natural gas at $54/Mcf, so if we sell about 4.7 Mcf at $64 we've effectively gotten the government to pay $250 to remove 0.8 tons from the atmosphere.

This sounds interesting, as a first step.

ozb··on Ask HN: Income Share Agreement for high earners?
See my other comment. I'm less concerned with converting between a lump sum and an annuity, and more concerned with insuring systemic risks.
ozb··on Ask HN: Income Share Agreement for high earners?
Yes, moral hazard is an issue. But in general a 10% cut doesn't eliminate the incentive for people to work, and the legal system makes "disappearing" non-trivial. That's also why I've included the possibility of automatically skipping low-income years, and not counting them towards the 10 years; ie, it's not just the next 10 years but the next 10 reasonably-profitable years. Finally, a chunk of the risk can be managed by the investor by diversification across different individuals, industries, skill sets, etc. And the rest is risk premium, which would result in a higher average return than a simple loan.

I don't think the difference between a guaranteed annuity and a lump sum is the main blocker here, those tend to be relatively interchangeable (at the appropriate interest/return). The part I'm more interested in is the insurance aspect. As mentioned, disability insurance is a part of it, and an emergency fund is another part for short-term changes in income. But even with both of these in place, the remaining risk means that eg my effective buying/renting power for a house is significantly diminished.

Note that income share agreements already exist for student loans. They're not so widely used and have their own issues, but it's also a much harder market than people who are already confirmed to be able to take in high earnings.

ozb··on Ask HN: Why does the media say inflation is up every month?
Perhaps, but 0.6% core inflation MoM is still a more updated metric than 8.2% (overall) YoY, which is explicitly ignoring that overall inflation has subsided in the last few months.

That is, I agree with the OP if all we have are the non-core numbers, but with the core numbers it's more nuanced.

ozb··on Ask HN: Why does the media say inflation is up every month?
Note core inflation (excluding food and energy, which are generally more volatile) has been at least 0.6% (annualized >7%) for 5 of the last 6 months https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

So arguably the narrative is somewhat justified.

But also, I wouldn't be surprised if many in the media are just blindly reacting to the 12-month numbers (8% bad!)

ozb··on Add ability to choose a custom coordination server
Just bought the Personal Pro plan (even though I don't really need it), and will be recommending Tailscale to friends and employers whenever possible. This really addresses the potential lock-in / privacy concern, and more generally makes me believe they have their users' interests at heart, rather than just trying to extract whatever they can.
ozb··on Use one big server
Sure, you'll get to m6g.16xlarge; but how many companies actually have oltp requirements that exceed the limits of single servers on AWS, eg u-12tb1.112xlarge or u-24tb1.metal (that's 12-24tb memory)? I think these days the issues with high availability, cost/autoscaling/commitment, "tragedy of the commons", bureaucracy, and inter-team boundaries are much more likely to be the drawback than lack of raw power.
ozb··on Ask HN: Is inflation just the cost of government borrowing?
My analysis can also account for eg supply chain failures: if the overall supply of goods and services in the economy is reduced, that translates to the expected government revenues as well, and therefore yields on government debt.

Obviously there are various effects at play; but given the structure of the monetary system, I posit that all these effects are in fact mediated by the Fed's balance sheet and Treasury debt.

ozb··on Ask HN: Is inflation just the cost of government borrowing?
I do have an econ education from a reputable university, so I have some idea of the traditional narrative. But inflation in particular always seemed a bit poorly explained to me (obvious printing-money cases aside), as evidenced also by the fact that people are always arguing about whether it is even occuring. Where specifically is my analysis wrong?
ozb··on Stereotypes about girls dissuade many from careers in computer science
Speculation: in these countries it's more common to segregate educational programs by gender. So there will be dedicated institutions for women, including institutions or departments that focus on computer science. In this context, it's more natural for women to consider computer science as something that women do. This seems compatible with the original article's hypothesis in the general case.
ozb··on Ask HN: How do you manage backup 2FA codes?
How about: store the otp secrets as well as the backup codes in an encrypted file/hashicorp vault/keepass (not with other passwords)/Authy, with the encryption keys being stored on USB flash drives and yubikeys, which can be put both on your keychain and in a physical safe. Many possible variants of this for different use cases.
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