13,474 karma · joined November 16, 2009
I also don't really get why TUI's have become such a big deal, other than maybe nerd bait. The only time I want a TUI is when I'm SSH'd into a machine, which isn't very often? TUI's have so many downsides. Selecting text is inconsistent, copy paste is inconsistent, mouse behaviors.. it's all kind of jagged.
It's funny, because I think the company that's going to be best positioned coming out of this bubble is in fact google, because they have the expertise and the capital. But I honestly can't tell you right now what their AI product even is -- I've seen so many things go into the graveyard a few months after its launched that I'm utterly confused what their offering even is at this point.
Also the security story doesn't completely add up to me. Like, if I'm a user and I can just add features that I want, what's to stop me from placing data in there that's maybe covered under HIPPA or some other sensitive data (protected class, or even just stuff like authentication information)? Right now a small number of people need to think about data security, but this seems like it'd extend it to anyone? That kind of data, it's not just about "keeping it internal by default", there are a lot of rules around storing it at all.
I dunno, it kind of makes me think of when people suggest forking an open source project if the maintainers won't accept a suggestion. Sure, you can do that, and it does happen, but you're also basically signing up to maintain it for decades. I'm not sure if anyone wants to maintain Alice in accounting's very weird spreadsheet app 10 years after she's left the company?
(Again I'm not throwing shade, just trying to understand better)
Sure. Also, don't care. Lets focus on the devil currently doing harm.
The problem is these guys lack "skin in the game". They make decisions that affect people that they never even hear from or speak to -- on purpose. They don't want to speak to the commoners. Like Paul Graham, apparently, they think we're losers because we didn't chase money.
IMO, things don't get better until we abolish citizens united and invoke some pretty hefty progressive taxes. There's absolutely no societal value to allowing someone to become a trillionaire, or even a centi-billionaire. Thats way too much power for a very disconnected group of people to have.
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-f...
A lot of his predictions have held up very well.
That is the intended purpose of hype.
He's polite, but he's basically saying there's potentially a lot of smoke and mirrors. I agree.
I don't agree with this idea of "creeping goalposts". Here's the pattern I see:
1. Labs make a press release, cherry picking results and using very careful wording to inflate the work
2. Boosters read the headlines uncritically, and uncritically promote the work for free (I hope.. I'm sure a couple are sponsored) and view it as "proof" and demand that the skeptics stop being skeptical.
3. As the hype dies, the smart skeptics point out all the holes, but by that point everyone has moved on. It takes more work to refute misinformation than it does to spread it.
The other thing: Why do boosters care about skeptics being skeptics? Like literally, if this thing is so fucking magical, why do you care if people like me take all these press releases with a large rock of salt? If I'm a dinosaur so be it, the skeptics are harmless, but the people propping up a bubble that's going to have terrifying repercussions on everyone while not holding the media's feet to the fire to challenge these people are going to look like what they are: sycophants.
Paul Graham, man, the whole reason I'm even on this site was because I was a fan of his essays back in the day. But I think he's too connected to this world to see how shady it is.
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-as...
As always, PR hype. Goalposts have not moved.
Guys, please use critical thinking. The haters don't hate by default, we hate because we're gaslit about this stuff every day and it's annoying. Extraordinary claims require proof, and they're not giving us information that would be essential to knowing if this is actually significant or not.
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly...
https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-as...
Not that there isn't something interesting in here, but lets be clear that we don't have enough information to evaluate this properly. And as always with these labs, BS takes a lot more energy to refute than it does to spread.