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2,036 karma · joined August 31, 2015

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outlace··on China delists all remaining poverty-stricken counties
Presumably $1740 per annum in rural China is enough to meet basic needs.
outlace··on Interpretation of confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals
If you’re trying to quantify your uncertainty about who will win the election, a poll would only be part of it. You want to be able to combine disparate sources of information. Maybe there is preference falsification and you want to incorporate as some sort of prior. As things get further from simple sampling from a population the frequency interpretation makes less and less sense to me.
outlace··on Interpretation of confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals
It seems a Bayesian interpretation of probability is more general. The frequency of events over an infinite number of trials is one way of interpreting probability for things that are able to be repeated. But this wouldn’t make sense to apply for an election that is only going to happen once and yet one still wants to be able to quantify uncertainty in these situations.
outlace··on The Accelerating Adoption of Julia
But isn’t the good scaling due to using variational inference rather than full MCMC? Turing has VI too.
outlace··on The Accelerating Adoption of Julia
Julia as a whole still lags behind Python or Matlab (unsurprising given the age difference) but there are some packages in Julia that just steal the show compared to Python et al, such as the SciML packages and the probabilistic programming packages. I switched to Julia for Turing.jl when I was previously using Pyro. Much happier with Julia.
outlace··on Actively speaking two languages protects against cognitive impairment
A 5% false positive rate can be pretty high depending on the situation, like whether or not a drug is effective.
outlace··on The Evolution of Psychiatry
For those interested in a history of psychiatry, see “Mind Fixers” by Ann Harrington (Harvard historian).
outlace··on US citizens warned they face arbitrary arrest in China
I've visited China nearly every year for the past 6 years and never had any sort of issues. I thought all the security personnel I encountered at the airport, immigration, subway stations etc in China were very professional and respectful. In contrast to one of the last times I was returning from China to the U.S. and witnessed a highly unprofessional U.S. CBP officer who was yelling and berating incoming international visitors because they couldn't understand his English, which was infuriating. All this to say that if you want to visit China recreationally (outside of pandemics), you'll almost certainly be fine and treated well.

*Edit: I'm just offering my personal experience here for others to consider amongst other sources of information.

outlace··on China suppression of Uighurs meets U.N. definition of genocide, report says
Sure but that was in a country where the ruling class was a small minority; perhaps the internal pressure was much more significant. In China the ruling class is a supermassive majority compared to the relatively tiny number of Uyghur’s.
outlace··on Santa Cruz, California bans predictive policing in U.S. first
Does predictive policing demonstrably reduce crime?
outlace··on A Neuroscientist’s Theory of Everything
The free energy principle is so generic and broad so as to be fairly useless. Sometimes the details matter and endless abstraction doesn’t help. The free energy principle is the string theory of neuroscience.
outlace··on Work from home is dead, long live work from anywhere
It seems the preference to work from home is pretty strong amongst software engineers. As a physician who was thrust into trying telemedicine, I couldn’t stand it. I would never voluntarily opt to do telemedicine. Besides delivering much worse care, I love being “in the office” with the camaraderie of being physically at work.
outlace··on Fast high-level programming languages
I think it would be much better if someone asked a group of experts for each language to come up with their best implementation for the tasks. If I just spent a few hours implementing a benchmark in a handful of languages I wasn't proficient with then I think the benchmark rankings would be nearly random or merely dependent on my priors.
outlace··on Uber cuts 3000 more jobs, closes 45 offices
Who cares about today? There are a lot of other days in the future.
outlace··on Uber cuts 3000 more jobs, closes 45 offices
I’m sure Travis Kalanick is so happy he dumped his shares before all this.
outlace··on Against Set Theory (2005) [pdf]
There are a number of different type theory models for classical logic. The first to my knowledge was a model that uses the call-with-current-continuation (call/cc) control flow operator. While this does model classical logic, some say it is not particularly useful as a practical programming construct, which is perhaps why it does not seem to be adopted by any major proof assistant. More recently I've seen a few papers showing that type theoretic models of concurrency can also model classical logic, e.g. see "Classical Proofs as Parallel Programs" < https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.03094 >. The original idea that the Curry-Howard correspondence only applies to intuitionist logic is wrong.
outlace··on Against Set Theory (2005) [pdf]
Because conventional mathematics, whether based on set theory or some categorical alternative, has (usually classical) logic as a background theory. In type theory, that's all you need. It is a theory of computation that has a "built-in" logic. And there's more than just intuitionism. There are type theories that model non-constructive/classical logic and are yet still computable programming languages. So we can write computable code and prove properties about that code in the same theory.
outlace··on Against Set Theory (2005) [pdf]
My hope is type theory will be the future adopted foundational system as it allows easier computer-checked proofs and a marriage of mathematics and computation. Category theory can then be formalized within type theory.
outlace··on California sues Uber and Lyft, claiming workers are misclassified
So if you are reclassified as an employee of Lyft then can you still decide how many hours you work? What if you want to work 40 hrs a week for 2 weeks, then travel the world for 2 months and come back and work 10 hrs a week for Uber. How can a company possible deal with compensating health insurance etc for situations like these?
outlace··on I gave away my books and sales increased
Hypothesis: Books that already have high exposure and demand will likely be negatively impacted by making a free version available. Books that would have good sales if more people knew about them will likely benefit from the increased exposure from making free versions available.

But yeah I personally have had the experience of the first link - I've purchased many physical books that have free (and legal) PDFs online because I like print books better.

outlace··on Amazon VP Resigns, Calls Company ‘Chickenshit’ for Firing Protesting Workers
I actually did read the article.
outlace··on Amazon VP Resigns, Calls Company ‘Chickenshit’ for Firing Protesting Workers
Why does everyone assume the actions of the little guy are always morally superior than the actions of the big corporation? I haven't delved into the details of this specific case but this reaction is typical regardless of the facts it seems. The big company is always the evil one and the employees are always little enslaved saints.

Edit: Whoops this comment could have been made less controversially - I wish everyone well.

outlace··on Using Reinforcement Learning in the Algorithmic Trading Problem
Honestly, not much has changed. The primary use cases continue to be things like robotics, playing games, finance etc. I’m interested in RL academically from a computational neuroscience standpoint (using RL to model cognition) but also as applied toward healthcare problems.

However, I don’t think the current limited use of RL is a permanent situation just that the most exciting uses of RL are extremely difficult problems that involve long-time horizons and planning. For example, RL could be used to automatically prove mathematical theorems which would be amazing. But it’s a really hard problem for various reasons. Still a lot of progress to be made.

outlace··on Using Reinforcement Learning in the Algorithmic Trading Problem
Anyone interested in delving into reinforcement learning should check out our book https://www.manning.com/books/deep-reinforcement-learning-in... - we cover actor critic (used in this paper) to multi-agent to relational/attention models
outlace··on Ask HN: What scientific phenomenon do you wish someone would explain better?
Did you read Nick Lane's "The Vital Question: Why Is Life The Way It Is?" It's all about this and it's great. Also take a look at https://www.quantamagazine.org/first-support-for-a-physics-t...
outlace··on Maybe visual programming is the answer, maybe not
Whatever happened to Luna Lang? https://luna-lang.org/
outlace··on The crash of the global flower trade
It's a pun even without knowing any dutch, because, you know, flowers..bloom.
outlace··on Former CEO of RadioShack now an ER doctor on frontlines of Covid-19 fight
Resident physician here. I have > $200,000 student debt. Doesn't feel good at all.
outlace··on A Texas nonprofit experiments with land trusts, for affordable housing
Is there any example of a LVT anywhere in the US or even outside the US?
outlace··on The Wolfram Physics Project
He's speaking on behalf of his brother Brett Weinstein, who is qualified to say such things.
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