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2,036 karma · joined August 31, 2015

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outlace··on Rust vs. Julia in scientific computing
I think Julia solves the two-language problem within a range of project complexity. If I am writing a simple machine learning model to classify MNIST digits, Python and its libraries is still the easiest way to go (although Julia is fine too). If I'm writing a large language model and processing large amounts of data, perhaps with some fancy plotting downstream, Julia makes more sense. If you're building a large, stable production application then you still might be more inclined to use Rust or C/C++ or the like.
outlace··on Why Businesses Can’t Stop Asking for Tips
Tips in the U.S. are insane. I feel like there's now a social expectation to tip for everything, even if it involves no actually tip-worthy service due to credit card machines. And the low end is now 18-20%. I recently went to Europe and tips were not expected, the food was no more expensive (maybe even less so) than the US, and the service was fine.
outlace··on Reinventing the E.R. for America’s mental-health crisis
Something is seriously wrong with our culture the past 10-15 years to have contributed to such a dramatic rise in mental illness.
outlace··on A physicist who bets that gravity can’t be quantized
Those are disanalogous in the case of theoretical physics where you don’t need access to any expensive equipment. There’s nothing in principle preventing someone from learning math and physics on their own or from a traditional university and then coming up with new theories alone. And in fact this happens all the time and most of those people get called crackpots.
outlace··on A physicist who bets that gravity can’t be quantized
Genuine question here, when was the last time a total outsider made a significant contribution to physics?
outlace··on California needs real math education, not gimmicks
I'll give her simple problems like "x + 5 = 0, what must `x` be to make this true?" (First had to teach her the number line and negative numbers) or "2*y = 6, what is y?" (Taught her multiplication as a copy-then-add operation, ie she knows that 2*3 means to make 3 copies of 2 and then add them all together. She hasn’t yet learned the times table)
outlace··on California needs real math education, not gimmicks
But that’s sort of the point I’m making- schools can’t fix drug-addicted parents and that’s probably going to make much more of a difference in a child’s educational attainment than how good their teacher is at teaching math. Unless schools are going to do more than just teach academic subjects. They will basically have to function as reliable, disciplining parents.
outlace··on California needs real math education, not gimmicks
I think we significantly overestimate how much school actually matters compared to family milieus. My wife and I highly value education, so regardless of when the school says children should learn algebra, I am already tutoring my 6 year old in basic algebra. If school did nothing other than be a daycare for my kids so we could work, they'd probably still be better educated than most kids going through public school because my wife and I will make sure of that because we teach our kids a lot on our own (and we're not hiring tutors or after school programs). If schools were more rigorous then it would save us time from having to do a lot of the educating ourselves, but it won't change family values.
outlace··on Experiencing decreased performance with ChatGPT-4
I also noticed degradation in quality of GPT-4. I assume it's because they keep doing RLHF to censor GPT-4 in certain ways to avoid legal hassles and this bleeds into it's quality in general.
outlace··on Justice Samuel Alito Took Luxury Fishing Vacation with GOP Billionaire
Okay, assuming that’s true, I’m suggesting that if we paid these positions better, maybe more “normal” people would want to do these jobs. So maybe you don’t significantly change the incentives for existing corrupt people, but you change the incentives for non-corrupt people to join government ranks.
outlace··on Justice Samuel Alito Took Luxury Fishing Vacation with GOP Billionaire
Well, I found this: https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/higher-government-wages-may-r...

GPT4 summary: "Research suggests that higher government wages can reduce corruption, particularly in poorer countries. However, as a country's income per capita increases, this method becomes less effective, leading to a need for other measures such as improving rule of law, transparency, and better mechanisms for detecting and punishing corruption."

outlace··on Justice Samuel Alito Took Luxury Fishing Vacation with GOP Billionaire
I've always wondered if paying important government officials more would help. A supreme court justice makes less than many run-of-the-mill doctors, and is an extremely consequential person who could probably be making several multiples of what they make in the private sector. I'd guess that if there were somehow market forces at play, the salaries of these kinds of jobs would be a lot higher and maybe we'd get better people and less temptation for corruption.
outlace··on Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
Tesla Insurance is a kind of small moat. But I think Tesla is really banking on winning the automotive AI race. They currently don't seem to be winning, but that does appear to be their main gamble. If they can be the first to achieve level 4+ self-driving then they would definitely dominate regardless of charging infrastructure.
outlace··on Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
I don't know if there are any studies on this but the perception amongst EV users that I'm aware of is that NACS is a very reliable system (low rate of charging stall breakdowns) compared to CCS chargers that seem to break down quite frequently. However, it is unclear if this is due to the technology difference between CCS and NACS or if it's just due to the poor implementation of CCS charger infrastructure.
outlace··on AA CEO tells pilots the carrier to increase pay to up to $590k a year
Yeah I am surprised too, the top end is more than many surgeons get paid.
outlace··on Moving from Blame to Accountability (2017)
This is focused on organizations but I will emphasize how moving from blame to accountability (or ownership) is a transformative stance for ourselves as individuals (as described in Extreme Ownership by Jocko Willink). We often try to protect our egos by shifting blame, making excuses or just avoiding challenges altogether because blame and failure are such a negative experience. But instead of self-blame if you instead decide to take ownership, where you take responsibility for everything in your world, it becomes a kind of game of how you can level up to better master the world. You also focus on where you want to go and how to get there and stop beating yourself up for not being there already. Mistakes stop being so painful and instead become welcome gradient signals to level up. You start seeking out challenges to acquire more skills to get where you want to go.
outlace··on Scientists Use GPT AI to Passively Read People's Thoughts in Breakthrough
It is important to keep in mind that the subjects had to get their brains scanned for 16 hours to train the machine learning algorithm to subsequently "decode their thoughts." So this cannot just be wielded on any unsuspecting person.

Moreover, I'm skeptical this can be significantly improved as fMRI is quite a blunt instrument when it comes to assessing brain activity; it is a delayed and course-grained view of relatively large volumes of aggregated brain tissue.

outlace··on California Defaults on $18.5B Debt, Leaving CA Businesses Liable
I cannot find any other reputable news organizations covering this story
outlace··on Japan's population may drop by almost one-third by 2070
Does sustainability or climate change matter if humanity goes extinct?
outlace··on Scaling Transformer to 1M tokens and beyond with RMT
GPT can learn things "in context" E.g. you can teach it something by chatting with it, but it will eventually forget it after its context length is exceeded. It cannot continuously learn and remember like biological organisms since its weights are frozen.
outlace··on Lego breaks ground on first US manufacturing facility
As someone with young kids who recently bought a $70 Lego set, it’s not just the plastic blocks, it’s a whole design. My daughter built this awesome Lego tree house with over a thousand pieces. She followed the instructions and built it step by step over a few days, which was fun for her in and of itself, and now that it is complete she continues to play with it.

So sure the plastic pieces are easily reproduced but clearly Lego does great work on architecting some really cool designs. (I have no affiliation with Lego company to be clear)

outlace··on US could soon approve MDMA therapy
I agree but it’s hard to navigate out of it organically. The mental health crisis is quite similar in origin as the obesity epidemic. In the latter it is largely caused by the food environment and we could avoid the vast majority of cases of diabetes by changing our societal food environment, but how does one do that?

A politician that bans or regulates sugar is not going to be popular. People want their sweets, or at least the option to have sweets. So what is the medical system to do if it can’t modify the food environment? It generates drugs that treat the diseases caused by the food environment. Similar with mental health.

There are society-wide environmental factors likely contributing to huge rates of depression and anxiety, but how is any one person or organization supposed to change that? So what does the medical system do? It generates drugs to treat the mental health conditions caused by environmental factors.

It’s a bad equilibrium but it’s hard to see a path out. Otherwise if you decide drugs are bad you have still have the environmental causes there and a bunch of untreated diabetes and suicidal people.

outlace··on Standoff over 95-year-old judge shows downside of lifetime jobs
I mean, we're the ones voting for these people. Also, this is like one judge in the whole country, and apparently from this article the last time this happened was in 1975. I don't think we need to create new regulations for every little rare problem. Things can be dealt with on a case by case basis sometimes.
outlace··on Canada is seeing violent crime like never before. What's behind the crime wave
In that case, wouldn’t that imply that we should figure out how to change people’s “behavior patterns” as the root cause of violence instead of blaming poor people for violence just by virtue of them being poor?
outlace··on Canada is seeing violent crime like never before. What's behind the crime wave
Honest question here: How does poverty imply violent crime? I’ve been to impoverished areas of China and it was safer than any place in the US for example. I don’t see how when someone is struggling with poverty that will increase their probability of engaging in violence.
outlace··on American IQ scores have rapidly dropped, proving the 'Reverse Flynn effect'
My understanding at a high level is that an IQ test is basically made by generating a bunch of cognitive tasks that putatively test different aspects of cognitive functioning (e.g. verbal reasoning, visuospatial reasoning, attention, working memory, etc.). For most people, performance on one type of cognitive task (e.g. verbal reasoning) is highly correlated with performance on the other types of cognitive tasks.

This allows you to model the test as a hierarchical statistical model with some general intelligence factor (denoted G) at the top and then specific cognitive tasks branch off from there. You can then infer what G is just by statistical inference on the "branches" (the performance on the individual cognitive tasks); similar to how you might infer someone's height if you only had access to their leg and arm lengths, as these are highly correlated with each other and also with height.

I believe IQ scores are always population normed to have a mean of 100 but unnormalized scores are likely available to compare across time.

outlace··on Effective Spaced Repetition
Ask yourself if the cost of having to look it up at a potentially inconvenient time (e.g. in the middle of a busy work day) is greater than the cost of memorizing it during scheduled less busy times (e.g. doing flashcards while eating dinner or during a bus commute).
outlace··on Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early Experiments with GPT-4
Like I said in the parent. I use this tool heavily every day for coding and non coding. The above was meant to be a tiny illustration. I have had long back and forth with GPT-4 trying to get it to understand some nontrivial useful code or generate some useful code and no matter how I phrased it it got it completely wrong even though it looked superficially plausible.
outlace··on Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early Experiments with GPT-4
Here's an example of it failing to understand some very simple Python code that any human with basic programming knowledge would not mess up:

------

Me: What is going to be the output of this code when `x = 0` and when `x = 900`:

```python x = 0

for i in range(100):

    if x > 50:

        x +=1

    else:

        x += 5

    if x == 90:

        print("X is not 90")

    else:

        pass
```

GPT-4: When x = 0, the code will execute as follows:

The initial value of x is 0. The for loop iterates 100 times. During the first 11 iterations, since x is not greater than 50, it will increment by 5 each time. After the 11th iteration, the value of x will be 55, which is greater than 50. For the remaining 89 iterations, x will increment by 1 each time. The final value of x after 100 iterations will be 55 + 89 = 144. During these iterations, the value of x never becomes 90, so the print statement is never executed. When x = 900, the code will execute as follows:

The initial value of x is 900. The for loop iterates 100 times. Since x is already greater than 50, it will increment by 1 each time. The final value of x after 100 iterations will be 1000. During these iterations, the value of x never becomes 90, so the print statement is never executed. In both cases, the output of the code will be empty, as the print statement is never executed.

--------

That is not correct, when x = 0 it will print "X is not 90". I basically create some simple code that is very unlikely to exist in its training data because it doesn't do anything useful and it cannot execute the code. A large amount of the reason that these models seem so impressive is that they were trained on almost everything that exists on the internet, so probably any question you ask it has already been asked somewhere and any useful code you present to it or ask it to generate is included in its training data, or at least something close enough.

So, when I go out of my way to create simple tasks or questions that are highly unlikely to exist in its training data, yet a human could easily handle, it often fails.

outlace··on Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early Experiments with GPT-4
ChatGPT and its relatives are very very impressive on first impressions, but I've been using ChatGPT-3 and now 4 heavily every day since they became available to individuals and once you start using them this much it becomes very clear how NOT intelligent they are. It really just seems like extremely impressive statistical inference after this much use and finding so many failure modes. But it is still impressive how much of human intellectual endeavors can be captured by sophisticated statistical inference. Very useful technology nonetheless.
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