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okintheory

434 karma · joined June 17, 2014

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okintheory··on An Interview with Marc Andreessen about AI and How You Change the World
One funny thing about MA is how happily he broadcasts his white supremacist tendencies on Twitter (by following lots of creepy ones). Makes me hope he won't be in charge of changing my world.

EDIT: e.g. @FistedFoucault, @empathyhaver, @0x49fa98, see also: https://theoutline.com/post/6708/marc-andreessen-twitter-fav...

okintheory··on Can you buy the same ticket at a lower price if you buy it from another country?
Batteries are not really considered at realistic option for airplanes, AFAIK. The best hope is that they can use synthetic fuel, at a cost of, say, x7 the current price. Regulation could definitely help make that happen -- and those who fly a lot should have to pay for the real price of their transport.
okintheory··on RightWingGPT – An AI Manifesting the Opposite Political Biases of ChatGPT
Ah, the days when this was a well-known quote...
okintheory··on RightWingGPT – An AI Manifesting the Opposite Political Biases of ChatGPT
Reality has a well-known liberal bias.
okintheory··on The Death of Quanta Magazine
I agree it's rather sad to see such an over-the-top presentation in Quanta. Staying more grounded would definitely serve their longer term credibility.

Perhaps surprisingly, NYTimes did better this time: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/30/science/physics-wormhole-...

They quote Scott Aaronson:

“The most important thing I’d want New York Times readers to understand is this,” Scott Aaronson, a quantum computing expert at the University of Texas in Austin, wrote in an email. “If this experiment has brought a wormhole into actual physical existence, then a strong case could be made that you, too, bring a wormhole into actual physical existence every time you sketch one with pen and paper.”

okintheory··on A professor's work on prime numbers could solve a 150-year-old puzzle in math
Earlier discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33512338

This isn't work directly on RH, but something in that direction.

okintheory··on The curious case of Norway’s demon wall (2021)
People might be reading too much into the 'demon' stuff: At least in Denmark, all medieval churches had devils painted on the ceiling. Could be the guy just thought it fit well in this Norwegian church too?
okintheory··on Ocean plastics: How much do rich countries contribute by shipping their waste?
Suppose you're broke and then some rich guy walks up to you on the street and loudly proclaims "throwing plastic in this river next to us would be terrible! I would never do it! But, would you mind taking this plastic cup for me? I'll pay you $100 to take it! And I don't care what you do with it ;)".

What would you do?

okintheory··on What Are the Odds?
If any expected value matters, it's utility, not wealth. If you think utility is linear in wealth, you need to check Jeff Bezos' instagram more.
okintheory··on Crypto assets are ‘worth nothing,’ says ECB’s Christine Lagarde
Writing 'state' is arguably inaccurate if you read it as 'nation state', but taxation in gold by city states goes way back to early city states and more generally gold has a very long history of being accepted as payment by governments. I'm not sure about salt. I'm not convinced Rai stones are a meaningful counterpoint -- reading about them they only appear to act as money in a fairly weak and impractical sense.

Secondly, I did not say that Bitcoin has to be money to be valuable. Rather that Bitcoin is not likely to be 'money' in any serious way, and this makes the 'store of value' proposition precarious. But I don't think it's inconceivable that bitcoin might still be worth a lot 100 years from now.

okintheory··on Crypto assets are ‘worth nothing,’ says ECB’s Christine Lagarde
The point was that Lagarde is a complete idiot for saying that Bitcoin has no (future) value? But, a fairly sound argument can be made that this is a plausible prediction, in part on the basis that Bitcoin is likely fail as 'money', which makes its long-term position as a 'store of value' precarious. So, I don't think the point is fair.
okintheory··on Crypto assets are ‘worth nothing,’ says ECB’s Christine Lagarde
Actually, the explanations for why bitcoin has value coming from different supporters is quite different, e.g. some argue it is useful as a means of payment, some argue it isn't but it will be, some argue it is only useful as a store of value. If you read "The Nature of Money" by George Ingham, you'll see that many economists think of money as something that is simultaneously: (1) A means of payment (2) a unit of account (3) a store of value. And historically, all successful currencies have been backed by a state that created demand for the currency by taxing people in it. Bitcoin is arguably doing very poorly on (1) and (2), which from a historical perspective makes it prospects look very uncertain.
okintheory··on Blockchain Is Dangerous Nonsense
It seems a bit off to assert that "people feel it is a price worth paying" when almost all purchases online are made with credit cards which have some protections against fraud, and almost none are made with blockchains in comparison. It seems like so far, most people don't think it's a price worth paying?
okintheory··on Maximum Flow and Minimum-Cost Flow in Almost-Linear Time
It's little-oh, not Big-Oh (o(1) is not O(1)). Instead $f(n) = o(1)$ means $\lim_{n \to infty f(n)} = 0$. So $m^{1+o(1)}$ is smaller than $m^1.00001$ for large enough m.
okintheory··on EU countries pledge to promote OSS within public administrations [pdf]
I don't know about this significance of something like this, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. I know in Denmark, academics have fought to convince regional administrations to contract companies to build open source software, but the companies push back and try to convince the govt to buy closed source instead. That sounds like pressure from above could matter. Of course not clear if pledge will create such pressure.
okintheory··on Make a Fair Coin from a Biased Coin (2018)
The parent comment was saying that when you fix the number of heads to be k in advance, the set of head positions you get is random. That sounds correct.
okintheory··on Spectral and Algebraic Graph Theory
I saw a link posted to a rather short note on graphs and linear algebra. I thought I'd better do some advertising for the real deal!
okintheory··on The Medieval Queens Whose Daring, Murderous Reigns Were Quickly Forgotten
That's what I meant, but I see the phrasing is ambiguous...
okintheory··on The Medieval Queens Whose Daring, Murderous Reigns Were Quickly Forgotten
Good point, or it would be, if only the world had not shoehorned misogyny into almost every little bit of our history.
okintheory··on Edge.org's Annual Questions
I don't understand the downvotes. Whenever you find out that an institution you interact with was used to enable a child prostitution scheme, it should cause a moment of reflection, not a reflexive downvote.
okintheory··on Bezos donates $100M each to CNN contributor Van Jones and chef Jose Andres
This is my current understanding:

Basically, once you're this rich, you can take hundreds of millions or billions of dollars worth of loans to cover anything you'd like to spend. Now, you can make sure that you're actually "losing" money in any given year by having (almost) no realized income. Then, at the end, you die, having never paid taxes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/briefing/tax-jeff-bezos-w...

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-irs-files-shor...

EDIT: Yes, this is a big part of why there's now a common argument that unrealized (but very large) capital gains should be taxed.

okintheory··on Winding down of Alphabet’s Loon causes job cuts
"The price for doing an urban installation was padded; it was padded - padded with the money that stopped the fibres coming out of the pavement and getting ripped up." If you think this is true, then you haven't been to almost any EU country* -- urban connections are usually better always much cheaper than in the US.

* Well, I can speak to ~8 of them, I didn't check the rest.

okintheory··on Effective altruism is not effective
Imagine you could make people give 30 % of their income... almost like a tax... but that would be political, not effective.
okintheory··on Effective altruism is not effective
Political change has done pretty well at helping the poor in Scandinavia.
okintheory··on The Wolfram Physics Project: A One-Year Update
I'm not aware of any important contributions made by Stephen Wolfram to theoretical computer science. What are some examples?
okintheory··on Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine
The graphic in this Guardian article [1] suggests that for age 40+ the number of covid-related ICU admissions prevented vs. no. blood clots has a factor 10 gap. Of course, clots might be more severe than ICU admission. But still, it looks to me like stopping for over 40 is a huge mistake. Very disappointing.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/07/under-30s-in...

okintheory··on New algorithm breaks speed limit for solving linear equations
This is a pretty common omission to make, even though it's strictly speaking wrong. But suppose for a moment that the algorithm was always fast. In that case, it would not need randomness anymore, as you could just pick a fixed string as the "random" outcome, and you would be guaranteed success. So, if an algorithm uses randomness, it will either fail with some probability or be slow with some probability. If neither is true, that algorithm doesn't need the randomness.
okintheory··on New algorithm breaks speed limit for solving linear equations
Not really. This algorithm is only fast with high probability, and getting a linear equation solver to be always-correct is just a matter of checking the output at the end and trying again if you're (too) wrong. So always-correct and fast-with-high-probability is a feature of any randomized linear equation solver. It still amazing stuff, I'm just pointing out that this particular aspect of the behaviour is not surprising.
okintheory··on Is Google’s AI research about to implode?
Clearly overall AI research at Google is not imploding, so I thought it was more interesting to talk about Ethical AI.
okintheory··on Is Google’s AI research about to implode?
As a casual observer, I get the impression that Google's corporate attitude toward research on Ethical AI is fundamentally analogous to Exxon's view of climate research in the 80s (and since). Namely, that Google, correctly, views research in the area as potentially undermining key revenue sources in the short and mid term. It is sad, but unsurprising. Government funded research and regulators will most likely be the force driving AI to be more ethical -- if that's going to happen. That's what we see whenever corporate and public interests collide head on.
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