90 karma · joined November 18, 2023
Furthermore... big mountains are easier to weigh v small individual atoms? I think it's a little more complicated than big is easy to measure...
I care little about the precision... I've got other priorities. It's the same as the time the internet saves me... Big. It's obvious.
I stand by my statement. It's hard to measure...
Most people have already made up their minds. There is little I can do about that, but perhaps someone else might see this and think twice.
Personally, I have spent many thousands of hours on this topic. I have Palestinian relatives and have visited the Middle East. I have Arab friends there, both Christian and Muslim, whom I would gladly protect with my life. I am neither Jewish nor Israeli.
There are countless reasons for me to support your side of this issue. However, I have not done so for a simple reason: I strive to remain fiercely objective.
As a final note, in my youth, I held views similar to the ones you propagate. This was for a simple reason—I had not taken the time to understand the complexities of the Middle East. Even now, I cannot claim to fully comprehend them. However, over time, one realizes that while every story has two sides, the context is crucial. The contextual depth required to grasp the regrettable necessity of Israeli actions in their neighborhood can take years or even decades of study to reconcile. I expect to change few minds on this topic. Ultimately, it is up to the voters to decide. There is overwhelming bipartisan support for Israel in one of the world's most divided congresses, and this support stems more from shared values than from arms sales.
I stand by my original comment. As I said, this will be my last on this topic. I hope this exchange proves useful to some.
Key word: working
The bubble is real on both sides. Models have limitations... However, they are not toys. They are powerful tools. I used 3 different SotA models for that project. The time saved is hard to even measure. It's big.
I wrote a working machine vision project in 2 days with these toys. Key word: working... Not hallucinated. Actually working. Very useful.
Perhaps someone knowledgeable could add context as to why they wouldn't include EU. I know they've passed more regulation and earlier... But in technical/legal terms...
Not enough time to ensure compliance? Capability or privacy issues exceed regulatory framework?
I haven't been following the regulatory side too closely as of late.
I'd recommend throwing some thick documentation at it. Images must be uploaded separately. If you use the full window, expect lengthy inference compute times. I've been highly impressed so far. Greatly expands capability for my daily use cases. They say they've stretched it to 10M in research.
You are taking literally 2-4 token phrases from my comment and attacking them without context. I'll spend time on the latter quote. You quote 'emergent capability'.
A) appreciate you correcting my spelling
B) 'The narrow test tube environment in which we see better performance hints at the unknown which when better understood could promise further yields down the road.
To my mind, the idea that filler tokens might promote immergent capability leading to broader task complexity'
C) Now that we have actual context... I'll leave the rest to the thoughtful reader. I said the following key words: 'hints', 'could', 'might'
D) Who asserted this behavior was emergent?
Recommend slowing down next time. You might get a more clear picture before you attack a straw man. Expect no further exchange. Best of luck.
This paper demonstrates a novel training approach which could yield narrow capability growth on a certain class of tasks.
The narrow test tube environment in which we see better performance hints at the unknown which when better understood could promise further yields down the road.
To my mind, the idea that filler tokens might promote immergent capability leading to broader task complexity capability is more promising than the backdoor risk you lay out. The possible scale in each direction just doesn't seem comparable to me(assuming each scenario plays out in a meaningful way).
Re the article...
A single fundamental breakthrough could make his entire article obsolete in a single month. We've found a lot of limits to LLMs sure... This is always how it goes over the history of AI right? The pace of fundamental breakthroughs seems of more relevant conversation with respect to the prospects for AGI as framed by his article.
Props for citing evidence via Pew. Just FYI, that Israel poll arguably became obsolete in the weeks following the 10/7 terrorist attack. Not sure where things currently stand.
I do wish there was a bit more nuance. The discussion of favorability is complex. I was speaking specifically to the comment regarding the US being perceived as a 'loudmouth how great they are compared to the rest of the world'.
As far as Europe broadly is conencerned... I would probably agree that public perception does include a component resembling the aforementioned perception. I'd speculate that this probably has a fair bit to do with many European nations exceeding the US in various metrics surrounding healthcare, happiness, safety, income distribution ect. Those critism are fair ofc.
I suppose the distilled point of my comment was that there is a lot of nuance to US image from nation to nation. Myself, I didn't realize just how respected the US is amongst so many nations. Even arguably adverserial nations often respect a great number of things about the US. I find it regrettable that the US domestic population often has very unfavorable views of their own nation, without giving adequate and nuanced consideration to our many accomplishments. Often less developed nations focus more on some of the bigger picture factors which are worthy of full consideration.
The image of the United States is perceived not nearly so negative in the counties which I visited: Jordan, China, Vietnam.
I'll add a fourth country, which I haven't visited. The image of the United States in Israel, while complex, includes a great deal of admiration. As a country with security always top of mind, overall Israel broadly admires the United States' extensive defense capability and power. I doubt most Israelis would describe the US as 'loudmouth'.
Similar nuances could be laid out for the countries I listed above.
Many world citizens can parse media of a random football fan screaming 'USA!' from the state department's lengthy policy positions. The perceived image you describe resembles most closely to me a self reflection found often within the US.
Nonetheless, I do think our culture could stand to posture in a more reserved fashion broadly, while not being afraid to mention where appropriate...
We remain a positive world standout in a variety ways.
Employers laptop -> (if newer laptop with no 3.5mm audio, cheap USB DAC) -> 3.5mm analog -> hifi analog input -> your ears
I wouldn't waste money on an expensive DAC. As I mentioned above... 320Kbps lossy audio. No point in a crazy DAC. No point in going through hoops to use your existing DAC.
Can confirm yak shave as commented by another. Full yak shave. I looked it up.
Spotify max bitrate is 320Kbps compressed lossy audio.
If the physical buttons on your player induce euphoria with every touch and this feeling in no way is lost to hedonic adaptation... This project could be defended in the court of hackernews.
It sounds like you learned a lot during this. That is good. I am glad for you. I have done similar things. They made similar levels of sense(arguably approaching none).
Not for nothing, if you actually care about the 'fidelity' part of hi-fi... Meh... I'm glad you had fun bro. I wish I could waste such time without endless guilt. Maybe in another life.
Try a search "cost of living basket of goods" for more info.
Worry not, despite unrealistic public expectations and wanton reductivism bred from saltiness regarding wealth's stubborn unwillingness to consistently grow without effort... We actually can measure a lot of useful things.
Worry not.
Claude is focused on state of the art context length and safety while maximizing performance and minimizing token costs.
Sorta like BMW vs Volvo.
Both highly concerned about safety and performance and having amazing features. It's about tradeoffs. Ultimately, I use all available foundational models. Each has specialized into a different niche. All are irreplaceable in my monthly life events.
They only sent a letter after Ilya signed it.
Power is distributed amongst Ilya, Brockman, Altman and the board. The other big player, which asserted itself quite plainly during this episode was ofc the team itself.
Altman is progressive, Brockman is center, Ilya is conservative and the board(should be) independent. Not sure where Mira Murati is at. Probably center with Brockman.
I'm guessing the team is highly diverse in loyalty, operating more like a family with a rather adorable coparenting arrangement than a corporation.
Seems overall everyone loves everyone. It's a high stakes mission that brought out some serious tension. All parties have strong feelings. Hell... I would.
If McKinsey was on track to sell armies of consultants for 20 bucks a month possibly as soon as the next 10 years... The stakes get high real quick.
Here's the updated list of recent Supreme Court cases that asserted states' rights and/or advanced government restraint:
1. *Biden v. Nebraska (2023)*: Limited the Secretary of Education's authority under the HEROES Act, constraining the federal executive's interpretive power over statutory mandates.
2. *303 Creative LLC v. Elenis (2023)*: Upheld the First Amendment rights against state compulsion, supporting individual rights against state actions.
3. *Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023)*: Restricted the EPA's ability to regulate wetlands, effectively limiting federal environmental regulatory power and implying greater autonomy for states.
4. *Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization (2022)*: Overturned Roe v. Wade, ending the federal constitutional right to an abortion and allowing states to regulate or ban abortion rights.
Seccesion seems less likely to me. The Supreme Court sets the rules. The states should have less to be angry about in the coming years.
Re central banking:
The history of central banking in the United States before the establishment of the current Federal Reserve System in 1913 involves two previous central banks: the First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) and the Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836). Analyzing the differences between these institutions and the reasons for the longevity of the Federal Reserve can provide insights into the evolution of central banking in the U.S.
### First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) - *Establishment and Objective*: Proposed by Alexander Hamilton, it was established to handle the war debt and create a standard form of currency. - *Structure and Governance*: It was a private corporation with public duties, holding a twenty-year charter. - *Controversy and Opposition*: It faced significant opposition from those who feared centralized financial power, particularly from Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. - *Role in Economy*: The bank was instrumental in standardizing U.S. currency and stabilizing the economy but was less involved in regulating other banks.
### Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836) - *Establishment and Objective*: Created in response to the financial chaos of the War of 1812, it aimed to stabilize the currency and control state banks. - *Structure and Governance*: Similar to the First Bank, but with more capital and stricter regulatory authority over state banks. - *Controversy and Opposition*: Faced intense opposition from Andrew Jackson and others who viewed it as a tool of the elite against the common man. - *Role in Economy*: Played a larger role in regulating state banks and managing inflation, but its power was often seen as overreaching.
### Federal Reserve System (Established 1913) - *Response to Financial Panics*: The Federal Reserve was created in response to a series of financial panics, particularly the Panic of 1907, highlighting the need for a central bank to manage the nation's monetary system and provide stability. - *Decentralized Structure*: Unlike its predecessors, the Federal Reserve has a decentralized structure with twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, balancing the interests of private banks and the public. - *Democratic Governance*: It operates under a government oversight system, with its leaders appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, ensuring a balance between private banking and public accountability. - *Flexible Monetary Policy*: The Fed has a more flexible approach to monetary policy, with tools like open market operations, reserve requirements, and interest rate setting. - *Role in the Economy*: It plays a crucial role in managing inflation, supervising and regulating banks, maintaining financial stability, and acting as a lender of last resort.
### Reasons for the Federal Reserve's Staying Power 1. *Adaptive and Flexible Monetary Policy*: The Fed can adapt its policies to changing economic conditions, a flexibility not present in the earlier banks. 2. *Balance of Interests*: The Federal Reserve's structure balances the interests of various stakeholders, including the public, government, and private banks. 3. *Learning from Past Mistakes*: The design of the Fed incorporated lessons from the failures of the previous banks, particularly in terms of decentralized structure and stronger regulatory powers. 4. *Evolving Role in a Changing Economy*: The Federal Reserve's role has evolved over time, adapting to the complexities of a modern economy and global financial system.
The Federal Reserve's ability to evolve and adapt to changing economic conditions, along with its balanced structure and democratic oversight, has been crucial in its longevity and effectiveness compared to the earlier U.S. central banks.
Being reserve currency has benefits but that's not relevant re the situation in Turkey. Countless countries have healthy inflation rates and only one is the reserve currency.
Why focus on threats which have upsides. Doesn't it make more sense to focus on things like disease, famine, war ect. Not really any first order upsides to these... (assuming unjust war)
Instead they go after the sexy stuff.
I could make the argument that they should all be librarians, teachers and nurses. We have massive shortages of 2/3 of these.
I'll wager one exceptional teacher has more magnitude of positive effects on the long term trajectory for mankind than any of these sexy non-profit roles.
OpenAI is exploring the limits of computation.
The more I see this kind of unfounded slander, the more confident I become that this outfit might be the most important in the face of planet earth.
So many commentors here are starting to sound like priests of the Spanish inquisition. Do you seriously expect a community of technologist and science advocates to be fearful of such assertions without evidence? It's a waste of breath. All credibility just leaves the room instantly.
Hitler solved this level of crisis. Didn't work out well for the neighbors.
I like the iterative approach. Perhaps we can ammend the test case with advice to keep the receipt for the first video card and offer an upgrade to a 4070ti on the retake or whatnot.
Or bigger/better boom stick on the retake or whatnot.
Pro tip: Don't let a populist gain control over your central bank. They are supposed to be independent. Once it was clear Erdogan had consolidated power sufficiently to dictate central bank policy... Two noteworthy things occurred:
1. Traders across the globe realized that Turkey was truly in a mess and began dumping Lira
2. Things went from bad to worse for the average Turk
Haven't followed things much since. I am also unsure if Erdogan has realized since that a central bank is more than an annoying thing for him to squeeze when his political agenda goes one way or another. Not sure if this sort of things is historically recoverable. Perhaps others can take it from here.
Also non violent.
I think if we have a major AI induced calamity... Then I worry much more. Although... Enough scary capability in a short enough period of time... I could see violence being on the table for the more radical amongst the group.
Your concern is very interesting though, and I think important to consider. I wonder if the FBI agrees.
I do notice many don't seem to revisit their predictions for reflection though. Perhaps this happens more subconsciously.
I'm wrong regularly ofc.
Superhuman pursuation to do good stuff.
That'll be a weird convo what is 'good'.
Too many years to max compute. All models limited lifespan inherent.
Avg $200k+ training cost over 18 year in house data center costs. More for reinforcement.
He's still 38. Gates took much longer. To stop working 24/7.
I can offer no concrete solutions.
However, I have a friend who graduated from high school #1 of a big class and 2 years early. His mom explained that if he made at least a 1400(of 1600) on his SAT, she would buy him a new gaming computer. He then proceeded to make exactly a 1400. No more. No less.
I recommend if you haven't tried already, an iteration to this approach using a sliding scale reward system. Perhaps a gaming pc with nvidia 4060ti up to *insert parental budget* in event of a perfect SAT score.
Ofc this only works if he's a gamer. I feel this type of system can be applied in many areas though. In my view, the clever component his mother applied is that the computer he earned was not just a desirable reward... It was VERY desirable.
My parents also tried this system with me. It didn't work as well. The reward was not sizable enough. It just didn't seem worth it. Too low value. Also, I already had a job and bought my own. My parents were unwilling to budget a sufficient reward. It's gotta be something he more or less is unlikely to be able to get via other means.
Now my friend is a physician. He graduated top of his class from med school. I think he's pretty content with life.
The bored ones can be a little more trouble sometimes. Fun breed though. Best of luck.
I also intend to better respect the sites rules going forward.
I never offered excuse for my behavior. Only context.
The comment I responded to is in agregious breach of the rules.
Altman has a well established reputation as a person with a deep commitment to mission and concern for the wellbeing of his team.
I acknowledge your reminder about the site guidelines. However, the comment I responded to was so egregiously unfair and baseless that it called for a strong response to counter an unsubstantiated and harmful accusation.
In cases like this, a firm rebuke can be a vital part of healthy community discourse, serving to discourage baseless character attacks and uphold a standard of integrity. While parts of my comment certainly strayed well outside of the guidelines, the specific line you mentioned was, in my view, not a violation but a necessary response to uphold community values against unwarranted defamation.
Pointing out that a person should be ashamed for a baseless attack on character does not discredit a broad argument. It demonstrates conviction. I think many would agree this is.warranted in many cases.
If character attacks are not going to be moderated, it's hard to reasonably expect to not see this kind of response surface. I believe there's a long tradition in most societies that when a person's character is attacked in a public forum, a response should be expected and is fair discourse within certain bounds.
Resigned 6 years ago due to differences at the top after 10 yrs building.
A bad guy was treating everyone poorly. Ranged from rage beratements to gross narcissistic manipulation aimed at gaining control over decent human beings.
Tried to press top guys to allign and confront to protect my team and others. Made very obvious business sense as well ofc. They refused. Too risky... Too much trouble.
Walked away from the best money I ever made. Would do it again. I'm not gonna watch people be mistreated. Also it's bad business, I was exhausted playing solo defense and after management failed to make moves I fully became convinced that every person should hit the job market for mental health reasons alone.
5 years on, the other guy besides me slated for c suite left as well. He helped at first then balked when the going got tough. Now the two partners have gotten in a dispute about succession planning and I expect everyone to be unemployed potentially within the next 3 months.
There's no money I would take to work there again or anywhere else where that kind of toxicity is present. The only worthy cause there became to confront the toxicity. Without the right allies though... The biggest thing I could do was just resign. 6 years later one partner realized I was right and he should have backed me.
After a certain point... Money doesn't matter. Given the 900k avg salary in that outfit... I have to assume they are overwhelmingly beyond that threshold. Furthermore all evidence to me indicates that Altman personally looks for folks who can get money, but care much more about other factors... He is wise to do that. Hard to find those folks, but worth it every time imo.
I respect both of y'alls experiance btw. I saw this confused cynical misunderstanding re salary expressed all over the comments for this story as it's unfolded since Friday. I consider it a full misread built largely from folks getting mistreated/burned by the many fools throughout practically every industry who fail to realize before returning to the ground that money doesn't really buy happiness... Probably never will.
I'm sure many others agree.