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noddy1

290 karma · joined July 14, 2017

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noddy1··on Science’s Pirate Queen
The argument that people should be prevented from reading information that they may not understand bugs me..
noddy1··on Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future
They printed $4+ trillion in the aftermath and gave it to banks.
noddy1··on Dogecoin's inventor looks to the past for insight into the future
The banks seem to have won the propaganda war about bailouts preventing economic collapse pretty well. I guess once the government makes the bailout and the banks accept the bailout, both parties are pretty committed to ensuring the public thinks that the bailouts were required.

What we really got was a tacit approval for bankers that they could make highly leveraged bets in the 7 years that the markets were going up, make shitloads of money, feel like geniuses, and then when it all inevitably explodes the government would bail them out and then QE like crazy to pick up the pieces. The QE would be given not to citizens, but to banks to inflate equity markets, and start the whole cycle again.

Now we have a whole new generation of financial "geniuses" overhyping every asset class, making shitloads of money off it all, thinking they are geniuses, and when it all collapses again they think the same thing will happen. It may do, but this time I don't have to be involved in that bullshit. My money is now unprintable. They can devalue the USD shitcoin all they want, but there are still only 21 million possible bitcoins and that's all I care about.

noddy1··on The Most Expensive Mile of Subway Track
More and more I think that US/europe should adopt expat worker models. Having a bunch of chinese companies bidding on this sort of work and then bringing over ships full of temporary workers and equipment to do the job seems to make sense. We outsourced manufacturing, now we need to outsource infrastructure projects. It alleviates poverty in china, and ensures that our country doesn't become a useless calcified relic.
noddy1··on Goldman Sachs Is Setting Up a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk
haha. Excellent.

Previous crashes = bankers dunking on retail investor rubes

Coming cryptoocurrency crash = nerdboi investor rubes dunking on bankers

Buy my pretties! Buy!

noddy1··on A tale of two bubbles, the dot-coms and Bitcoin
Big picture time:

1) Do you think in 50 years there will be 150 nation state currencies or mainly a single global one?

2) Do you think the world superpowers (china, russia, US) will refuse to let another superpower's currency become the single global currency?

3) What will the total market cap of this currency be?

4) What is the chance that bitcoin or some derived form in which current holdings are preserved is that currency?

Now put a value on probability or amount for each of these statements. Here's my personal belief for example:

1 x 2 x 3 x 4 = ?

50% x 70% x 30 trillion x 10% = 1.05 trillion

noddy1··on Tezos founders push for legal bailout from Swiss foundation
Ironically the only ethereum dApp which people actually use - EtherDelta decentralized exchange - was never ICO'd and makes piles of money.

The incentives for token sales are to raise as much Eth as you can, spend as little of it as possible on the actual project while watching its value appreciate, then either have a product launch that semi-fails or have some good excuse why the project just couldn't work for some reason while minimizing the chance that people bring legal action against the project.

noddy1··on Tezos founders push for legal bailout from Swiss foundation
When the underlying value of the ETH/BTC has appreciated significantly, and the likely value of the Tezos token has plummeted, trying to extract core investment is reasonable.

Personally I would do it quietly, with good legal backing, and as a single entity or with a small group of investors rather than a large class action - and reach an early settlement to get our own investment back without causing too much of a stir for other investors.

noddy1··on What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market
Completely agree.

It is further warped by the fact that although the anti-interventionalists are probably right, the interventionalists are the ones who do all the consulting and take all the jobs and give all the advice - because they are .. interventionalists. And who wants to pay a consultant to tell them "don't do anything, and there's nothing you can do."

noddy1··on Australia's Housing Frenzy
Also, QE has involved giving banks trillions of dollars. The banks then either sit on the money, or use it to inflate the stock market and property markets. The stock market triples or quadruples and everyone says the economy is going well. The money never makes it to non-asset owning working stiffs, and consumer prices as measured by central bank mandated CPI measures don't really change. So the central bank and Keynesian economists brag that "inflation is under 2%! QE stimulus really is a no downside perpetual motion free growth machine!". And the press states that "nobel prize laureates" call for and support these measures, and politicians and the public assume that a "nobel prize laureate" in economics is like a "nobel prize laureate" in hard science, where awards are given for settled progress in science that everyone agrees on. And people don't realise that macro-economics and monetarism are nowhere near settled science, and that there are PLENTY of people still calling bullshit from the austrian/chicago school.

Sadly it looked like this silliness was going to continue forever.

Fortunately, the market has given us inflation-proof cryptocurrency, and these central banking bastards are finally going to have to test their theories and put their ideological balls on the line in a free market with the ability of nation states to control currency as the price for shitty science. Good luck to them - they will need it.

noddy1··on A stolen painting appears for sale on the dark web
A few options - in practice you would probably do some/all of these: 1) Put them through a mixer 2) Put them through an anonymous exchanger like shapeshift and convert into a privacy focused cryptocurrency like monero/zcash 3) Sell on offshore/low-regulation exchange, or via an anonymous credit card service
noddy1··on Using Cryptocurrency Smart Contracts to Sell Shares of My House
Exactly.

If he tokenizes his house and then a russian hacks his laptop and steals all his tokens, what happens then? Will he move out and send his keys to moscow?

Ownership ledgers are significant because they have a legal basis and state enforcement to back them up.

noddy1··on Ask HN: What is your weirdest secret YouTube addiction?
shuffle-t and marlow?
noddy1··on Sade’s Quiet Storm of Cool
DJ Spinna's best of sade mix is good:

https://www.mixcloud.com/Double0Soul/dj-spinna-best-of-sade-...

Fave sade jams are "love is stronger than pride" (especially the mad professor lover's rock remix), "I couldn't love you more", "cherish the day"

I remember laughing at my friend's mom for playing "Smooth operator" in the car when i was 10, now i love that jam hehe

noddy1··on Orchid: a new surveillance-free layer on top of the existing Internet
The liquidity offered by the token model means that early VC/hedgefund backers often get heavily discounted tokens in the presale, and can then turn round a month or two later and dump a portion of their tokens on public investors for a sweet profit or to mitigate their own risk.

Polychain did this with 0x project: https://www.reddit.com/r/0xProject/comments/6w3zv0/0x_being_...

The effect was attenuated in this case by the success of the project, however in lower performing ICO's like Kik's Kin, where the market price is 50% of public sale price or less, big early investors dunking on public token sale participants feels pretty wrong.

In addition to this, VCs are also often playing a role in promoting public sales shortly after their own pre-sale investments, without disclosing their own discount or terms of obtaining tokens. Its kinda like telling people to buy a bunch of stock at $10 when you bought all yours last week for $5 and you're keen to dump a portion of them for $15.

https://medium.com/@rzurrer/raiden-fundamental-infrastrucutr...

It may be legal, you may think it's their right, and to be fair there is risk involved in being an early backer in a potentially failed project, however it is something to think about.

noddy1··on How Deliveroo's 'dark kitchens' are catering from car parks
It seems silly to say that delivery food must be prepared in the back of a restaurant, on prime real estate, in the midst of sit-down diners.

People talked about the possibility of uber-for-food or "food-sharing", where the lady next door cooks a bunch of food and then all the neighbors get some.. I think this delivery-only kitchen model will be the reality of uber for food - hyper-local low cost kitchens which may be boxes in car parks, or may be operating out of cafes that don't normally open for dinner, or even out of suburban garages (with signoff from local health authorities).

Every suburb has a fairly standard, reasonable quality thai, chinese, pizza, indian and burger places. Lower price delivery incentivized users to go local, but if ratings are not great for the local option then they will get a more distant option for a slightly increased delivery price, pushing the local option to maintain quality.

Retail/hospitality real estate doesn't seem to have great prospects at this point. When you no longer need street frontage but rather just a back alley spot to sell food, and when amazon has dominated all street facing retail, it will be interested to see what happens to urban retail hubs.

noddy1··on How Deliveroo's 'dark kitchens' are catering from car parks
Uber eats charges ~35% to restaurants in australia.
noddy1··on Launch HN: Cashfree (YC S17) – Automated Payouts and Bank Transfers for India
Hi - can cashfree be used to make bitcoin -> PayTM payments?
noddy1··on SoftBank Plans a New $200B Fund
Great, so now the frozen IPO market means that all the growth from tech unicorns gets captured by saudi oil sheiks. thanks SEC/SV!
noddy1··on After the end of the startup era
The cryptocurrency space has brought multiple unicorns - they just mostly don't come from silicon valley and don't follow the typical VC funding model.

Bitcoin Ethereum Ripple Bitcoincash Litecoin Dash NEM NEO Monero Iota

noddy1··on ICOs at the End of 2017: What We Think We Know and What We Don't Know
The unintended consequences of the SEC forcing ICOs away from representing equity towards "use tokens" is that investors lose any rights at all.

The SEC is fucking up pretty hard at the moment and doing real damage. Their actions in the IPO market, meant to protect advisors, have resulted in only pump-and-dump crap like snapchat and blue apron going public, while all the gains from real growth tech companies are being retained by VCs, sovereign wealth funds and investment banks, while retail investors holding index funds miss out.

I think this is a major factor contributing to widening gap between the super-rich and everyone else. There are a lot of ICO scams, however giving vague guidance and forcing ICOs out of their own jurisdiction when clearly people are still investing in tokens as a speculation/profit vehicle is worse than useless. Token-holders need the ability to change management, dissolve companies and reclaim cryptocurrency investment if companies are mismanaged or scammy, and they need to have the right to see how funds invested are being spent.

noddy1··on Ask HN: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general?
Bitcoin market cap is around 92 billion, 2/3rds of IBM.

If bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency, that will probably go to 10 trillion, a ~100x gain.

If you think bitcoin has >1% chance of becoming the global reserve currency, you should buy at the current price.

noddy1··on Blockchain Could Help Us Reclaim Control of Our Personal Data
it is if you are working across multiple jurisdictions/regimes and you don't want a centralized point of failure.
noddy1··on Blockchain Could Help Us Reclaim Control of Our Personal Data
blockchain would allow: - trustless cloud-based indexed storage of encrypted data using protocols such as IPFS - logging of data access requests to a globally accessible database and ability to give and remove permissions based on timestamps - auditing of data accessors to ensure that their access patterns match their functions - eg. if a hospital suddenly starts trying to download data on a million patients instead of 300 then this would be visible on the blockchain and individuals could then question why this is occurring and prevent access.

All of these things can be done with trusted intermediaries, but when you start considering use cases such as - being in china and needing to allow a chinese hospital to access your records back in the USA, suddenly these things become important.

noddy1··on Blockchain Could Help Us Reclaim Control of Our Personal Data
For medical records - consider a secure reader tablet-like device. It has encrypted hardware which can be temporarily permissioned to have access to encrypted data based on blockchain timestamps. It is tamperproof - if you open it it has some self-destruct mechanism. Data is accessed in chunks, therefore the owner of the data can see whether data is being accessed in the way a human might use it, or if it is being downloaded en masse. The organisation with data access devices gets audited on an annual basis to see where all their access devices are and to ensure none of them are being tampered with.

Suddenly, we get to a situation where the security of the medical file begins to resemble that of the paper-based medical records department. If you want to copy records, you need to physically go to where they are, get access to each individual file, and go page-by-page photographing each.

noddy1··on New Research on How Ride-Hailing Impacts Travel Behavior
I really think that an 8 seater vehicle running uberpool will be the sweet spot here. Buses are slow and annoying and crap. I think algorithmically directed minibuses will be the gamechanger.
noddy1··on Equifax takes down web page after reports of new hack
Solution to the Equifax debacle:

1) If the value of the individual damages related to this breach are in excess of the market cap of the equifax company, all company stock should be seized and distributed equally among those affected by the breach.

2) In the future, if a company controls this amount of sensitive data, they should have mandatory breach insurance. This means that they are covered for a government mandated amount based on the legal liability if all their data was lost. This will mean that the insurers will do in-depth audits of the data security of the company, and they will be incentivized year-to-year to ensure their security practices are top notch. The present system incentivizes each CEO to have a head-in-the-sand approach to data security where a hack is considered a long-tail event unlikely to happen during the ceo's 3-5 year tenure and therefore is not really worth paying attention to. In addition, it would ensure that if the potential damage done if data is leaked exceeds the value of the business storing the data, the insurance will be prohibitively expensive and the company will not be able to continue with this line of business - as it should be.

noddy1··on A Data-Driven Guide to Becoming a Consistent Billionaire
Isn't "consistent billionaire" a surrogate for "way over a billion" whereas the "non-consistent billoinaire" is someone who makes about a billion? And, does any of this mean anything? who cares?
noddy1··on Using blockchain for identity management is mostly ridiculous
:shrug: don't care
noddy1··on Using blockchain for identity management is mostly ridiculous
A blockchain could improve on this because it leaves some trail linking actions of individuals as well as authorities together.

For instance, you can make a timestamped scan of a university degree to prove it existed on some date. However, a blockchain would allow the university itself to sign the fact that it gave the person the degree at that time. It would also show how many degrees of that sort the university are giving out, so that if they start giving them to everyone that would be noticed. It would also show that the given person only got that 1 degree at that time, and it would be hard for them to then make up a bunch of other stuff. None of these are possible with simple timestamping.

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