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nmehner

354 karma · joined November 7, 2015

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nmehner··on 10 out of 12 people cured in Type 1 Diabetes Study
Diabetes type 1 is quite well manageable if you have a CGM sensor and inject insulin regularly.

But if a person with dementia tends to peel of sensors, gets aggressive when getting injections etc. this might not work. And an unmanaged diabetes can be deadly.

Not sure how these approvals work in that case, but this groups of people might be the first that can benefit from a treatment like this.

nmehner··on A leap year check in three instructions
https://listverse.com/2019/05/19/10-bizarre-calendar-fixes-t...

Everything before the introduction of the gregorian calendar is moot:

"In 1582, the pope suggested that the whole of Europe skip ten days to be in sync with the new calendar. Several religious European kingdoms obeyed and jumped from October 4 to October 15."

So you cannot use any date recorded before that time for calculations.

And before that it gets even more random:

"The priests’ observations of the lunar cycles were not accurate. They also deliberately avoided leap years over superstitions. Things got worse when they started receiving bribes to declare a year longer or shorter than necessary. Some years were so long that an extra month called Intercalaris or Mercedonius was added."

nmehner··on Thoughts on the software industry (2022)
> Besides that: find small (2-3 day) project ideas that require you to learn max. 1 new technology or idea, and build lots of such projects.

That's how you learn programming. It's not a bad idea, but at least for me software development is more about long term issues coming up, team communication, features that create short term value but long term problems. How to organize big piles of code.

A lot of abstractions don't make any sense in a 2-3 days project and you are better of hacking away a script than looking into "properly" modelling things.

My impression is always that as a junior you learn how to do stuff. Then you learn to do complicated stuff. And becoming a senior you learn how not to do complicated stuff.

This takes some of the fun out of it as well. Deploying a feature that is simple and that just works without any issues does not create nearly as much excitement as "saving the company" with a big hack and high risk deployments, although it is much better to not have to "save the company" in the first place.

nmehner··on GitHub Spark lets you build web apps in plain English
AI might be nice to generate stuff. But as all code generators it has the issue of supporting the generated code long term.

With AI it is even worse: You don't get reproducible runs: Trying to fix a simple layout bug and suddenly some updated AI generates something completely different because it learned some new tricks and you cannot go back to what you had before and suddenly the whole page doesn't work anymore?

Sounds like fun!

nmehner··on Threads and Goroutines
Don't most applications that use threads also use thread pools because thread creation is expensive?

I guess these comparisons are nice to get a feeling how expensive operations are. But has it a lot real world relevancy?

In practice my beef with coroutines is that with unlimited concurrency you run into resource limits when the system gets some load (file descriptors, open connections, ... whatever the coroutine does that is limited) or starts a DOS attack. Which is something no one ever tests and something that appears randomly in production depending on the data fed to the system.

With many developers using them as default solution when things get slow that creates brittle systems. How is everyone else dealing with things like this?

nmehner··on Death of Korea's 'apartment king' leaves 100s in property purgatory
Looking at demographics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_South_Korea in 1955 900.000 people were born in Korea. In 2022 about 250.000. The population in 2021 only decreased by 60.000 but this number will increase rapidly.

Seoul might not change for a few years but a population decrease of 1% each year will not leave the property market unaffected.

nmehner··on France prepares for possibility of electricity blackouts during winter months
https://energy-charts.info/charts/installed_power/chart.htm?...

Please don't look at short term effects when trying to judge the energy transition. France might restart a coal plant because of issues with its nuclear plants. Germany restarts some coal plants to deal with the gas shortage and to export electricity to France. But this is short term. It is simply not possible to build new plants within one year to deal with the political changes.

The long term trends are stable. With the transition to electric vehicles (https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/02/europe-electric-car-sal... ) fuel consumption should also soon start to fall in significant ways. Norway is already there with a decrease of 6.6% YoY (https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statis... ), the rest of Europe is probably trailing by about 5 years.

Of course everything should be faster and yes, the USA have to find their own way. It's not like even Spain and Sweden can have a similar approach to migrating to renewable energy.

nmehner··on EU climate plan sacrifices carbon storage and biodiversity for bioenergy
On 1.: Birth rates are stable since about 1990 and declining since 2017: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-b... China had almost 30 million births in 1963, but only had 10 million last year.

The rate of population growth is decreasing much more quickly than expected: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-the-ann...

On 3.: In Germany the share of wind/solar in electricity production is more than 37%. How is this unproven? Supply is getting more stable almost every year: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/Elektrizitaet... Nobody is shutting off energy. And the EU has subventions for personally owned vehicles trying to increase their usage: https://ecf.com/news-and-events/news/money-bikes-financial-i...

nmehner··on Kakao service disruptions cause nationwide mayhem (Korea)
"The simultaneous shutdown of 32,000 servers rarely occurs in the IT industry," Yang said.
nmehner··on EU Starts Requiring Anti-Speeding Tech for New Cars
> ... this is actively intervening in how you use your own car.

Traffic laws already limit how you are allowed to use your own car. This just prevents you from breaking the law. Your freedom ends where the freedom of another person to live a safe life begins.

> Also I don't understand what does this have to do with climate change?

Speeding cars make it a lot more difficult for other means of transport to share the road. In Europe many urban areas are limited to 30km/h (19mph). This allows sharing the street with bicycles, pedestrians and playing children. Speeding cars (speed limits are often seen as minimum speeds) make this impossible.

So the climate will come from people moving to other means of transport that are becoming viable and safe. Also public transport will be more attractive if taken a car takes longer. Europe tries to make its cities more live and loveable.

nmehner··on EU lawmakers vote to ban sales of gasoline cars by 2035
The average car in Europe drives 30km a day and is parked more than 23h. So a charged battery will have a moving 10 day window to be charged again. This is a great use case for renewable energy. 10 days of Dunkelflaute does not happen a lot. Smart charging for cars will stabilize the grid.
nmehner··on EU lawmakers vote to ban sales of gasoline cars by 2035
New car models take time to develop. Factories and supply chains take time to build. 10 years is basically telling car companies to stop developing ICE cars right now and go search for more supply of battery materials.

And government has the power to change things. Europe has a 12% BEV share in new cars because of subsidies and regulations: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/29/stellantis-wins-1-2-in-...

Norway has a 85% share of BEVs in new cars because of even more government intervention.

nmehner··on EU lawmakers vote to ban sales of gasoline cars by 2035
I am sorry, but your comment is very uninformed.

* Cows produce methane, cars produce CO2. Talking about "pollution" just muddies the waters. According to https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector lifestock produces 6% of greenhouse gases, road transport 12%. Also looking at Germany (I don't have data for all of Europe), drinking milk production fell by 7% in one year (replaced by plant based milk) https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/05/PE22_N034_51.html . Beef production fell by 2.4% (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/02/PE22_050_413.html ) So changes are happening in agriculture as well.

* Supertanker emit a lot of soot, not so much CO2. Again: Talking about pollution in generic terms does not help. Also supertankers won't be needed anymore, if no oil is consumed. So electric cars will help with this as well. Replacing all fossil fuels would remove need for 40% of all tonnage shipped worldwide.

* Sweden and Norway already have basically completely renewable electric grids. Germany is exiting coal by 2038 (this will hopefully be accelerated to 2030). Every year some of the existing coal plants are being shut down: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/Elektrizitaet...

* No new gas heatings will to allowed to be installed in most EU countries by 2025. Heat pumps are already the default in Scandinavia and will be in other countries soon.

* Hydrogen production is being ramped up: https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/germany-s-fir... or https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight... to replace gas usage where electricity does not work.

So a lot is happening in all sectors. And you can see results: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?t... This is not just virtue signalling.

nmehner··on Millions of electric cars are coming. What happens to all the dead batteries?
Well, yes, you are right.

These are actually two steps: Melt everything into the "Black Mass" and use Hydrometallurgy to extract the metals afterwards. I think https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XylDkcrJgTw gives a good overview (although the voice is somewhat hard to listen to).

nmehner··on Millions of electric cars are coming. What happens to all the dead batteries?
At least in the EU/UK it is required by law to recycle 95% of a car: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/95207/car-recycling-h...

A problem with plastics is that it is hard to create high quality plastics from recycled materials. And there is only a limited demand for park benches made from low quality recycled plastics.

This is different with metals where you can "just" melt everything and separate the metals. This is probably less expensive than mining the materials in the first place where the ore contains a much lower share of the metals. Also a car contains a few hundred kilograms of recyclable materials and there is a very limited number of different models. So there is an economic incentive.

nmehner··on Millions of electric cars are coming. What happens to all the dead batteries?
For the U.S.: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/20/li-cycles-battery-recyc... "The battery recycling plant can process the equivalent of batteries required for around 20,000 EVs per annum."

For Europe: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/17/hydrovolt-the-largest-b... "the Hydrovolt factory is now in commercial operation and expects to recycle 12,000 tons of depleted batteries a year initially, rising to 70,000 tons by 2025 and 300,000 tons by 2030. 12,000 tons is enough to handle all depleted batteries from electric vehicles on the road in Norway today."

Recycling currently does not happen on a larger scale, because most batteries are not EOL, not because is does not work.

nmehner··on Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open
Germany has about 40GWh of pumped water storage. This is used for extending solar into the evening/morning (on a typical day about 1300GWh of electricity are consumed in total).

About 5% of electricity need can be provided by Norway through pumped storage (Norway has a storage capacity of about 100TWh, but the grid is limited).

Much more storage will be needed in the future, but many storage projects have been delayed since the demand for them is not there yet.

Rarely 50% of the available coal production capacity is used. There will be spare capacity available for the near future even if a lot more coal plants are shut down.

nmehner··on Why Germany won’t keep its nuclear plants open
This article is just wrong. The premise is:

  * About 35% of Germany’s gas is used to generate electricity.

  * Eliminating German electricity from gas would thus nearly eliminate Germany’s purchase of Russian gas.
But Germany only uses 12% of gas for electricity: https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-d... this usage has gone down another 15% in January/February 2022 before the war even started: https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/stromerzeugun...

The author seems to have taken the 35% figure from https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Germanys-Growing-Gas... where is is labeled "Power" in the chart. Whatever that is supposed to mean. But it is not electricity. I could not find any public information about this on: https://www.rystadenergy.com/energy-themes/commodity-markets....

Also some gas plants are used for electricity/heat co-generation so you cannot simply replace them with nuclear. Gas peaker plants have a completely different usage from nuclear plants.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
"Stellantis has announced its commitment to sell only electric vehicles in Europe from 2026, following in the footsteps of several other manufacturers that revealed similar moves."

So an option in 2024 and all electric by 2026. What is incorrect in this article? If they stop selling combustion cars in 2026 they will start phasing out much earlier.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
Mercedes-Benz EQA Mercedes-Benz EQB Mercedes-Benz EQC Mercedes-Benz EQS MERCEDES-BENZ EQV MERCEDES-BENZ eSprinter MERCEDES-BENZ eVito ... are already being sold.

Are all being sold. EQE will be released this year. Smart is already all electric.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
Daimler stopped development of combustion engines almost three years ago: https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-inte... . Volkswagen will not develop new combustion engines: https://paultan.org/2021/03/23/vw-to-stop-developing-interna... Opel (as part of Stellantis) is going all electric in 2026.

The combustion engine was let go some time ago.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
Stellantis (Opel/Citroen/Fiat/...) will be all electric by 2026: https://insideevs.com/news/570731/stellantis-electric-europe... Volvo will by all electric by 2030: https://www.autoserviceprofessional.com/articles/8910-volvo-... Mercedes will be all electric by 2030: https://electrek.co/2021/07/22/mercedes-benz-go-all-electric... Volkswagen is converting three factories (Emden, Chattanooga, Hanover) to build electric vehicles this year alone. Ford will be selling 600000 EVs/year in Europe by 2026 (https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/14/ford-plans-9-electric-c...)

There is a lot of capacity going online.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
There has already been some progress (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-made-progres... ):

"Habeck said imports of Russian oil now accounted for 25% of German imports, down from 35% before the invasion, and gas imports have been cut to 40% from 55%. Russian hard coal imports were down to 25% from 50% before the invasion."

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
By 2025 probably the majority of new cars in Europe will be electric and by 2027 >80%. After that the share of electric cars in the fleet will increase by about 4-6% every year. Almost complete electrification will probably take until 2040.

If robotic cars take off and people stop owning cars in larger numbers, things might be faster. Also old combustion cars might still exist, but these are often cars that are not moving a lot.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
On a sunny march day currently about 18% of all electricity is generated from solar.

Also there is a lots of wind in winter and solar works better in summer so the combination works quite well.

nmehner··on Germany boosts renewables with “biggest energy policy reform in decades”
Transportation and heating will be electrified. Electric car share in new cars is 15% and climbing fast. New gas/oil heating installations will be (almost) forbidden from 2024 on (65% of heating energy must come from renewable energies).

So electric energy is what is relevant for the future.

nmehner··on 2022 World Cup Ball: Al Rihla
There is only a handful of qualification matches and each league is using a different ball anyways: http://football-balls.com/balls

Probably they are all quite similar and having a new type of ball for a tournament is more about marketing and sales.

nmehner··on France ends gas heaters subsidies
Please take a look at the actual regulations: https://ec.europa.eu/finance/docs/level-2-measures/taxonomy-... states the conditions for investments in gas to be considered green is

> (ii) the power to be replaced cannot be generated from renewable energy sources, based on a comparative assessment with the most cost-effective and technically feasible renewable alternative for the same capacity identified; the result of this comparative assessment is published and is subject to a stakeholder consultation;

> (iii) the activity replaces an existing high emitting electricity generation activity that uses solid or liquid fossil fuels

> (v) the facility is designed and constructed to use renewable and/or low-carbon gaseous fuels and the switch to full use of renewable and/or low-carbon gaseous fuels takes place by 31 December 2035, with a commitment and verifiable plan approved by the management body of the undertaking;

> (vi) the replacement leads to a reduction in emissions of at least 55% GHG over the lifetime of the newly installed production capacity;

So in short gas is only green if the investment replaces coal or oil, reduces GHG by 55%, is replaced with renewables before 2035 and no renewable alternatives exist. This is a very limited scope. For heating purposes Germany is moving away from gas as well: https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/entwicklung-b... From 2025 on each installed heating has to be powered by 65% renewable energy. This basically rules out gas+oil.

nmehner··on There are not enough BTUs
That is if you see sanctions as an all or nothing approach. For Europe the approach will have to be to reduce consumption step by step. This is not as glorious as stopping all imports in one day, but it will hurt Russia nevertheless.

Also this process already started before the current crisis. In Germany heat pump sales have been exploding : https://www.waermepumpe.de/fileadmin/_processed_/2/4/csm_Dia... . In Norway the share of electric cars in new cars is at 85% and 16% of the existing fleet is already electric. This starts to become visible in oil consumption for traffic as well: https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/olje-og-gass/statis... (although the economic recovery after Covid masks this somewhat). In all of Europe 10% of all new cars are electric and that share will increase fast.

The article only looks at the supply side of things, but long term the more important part is demand.

These changes won't effect the outcome of the current crisis, but for Russia the coming decade will show what foolish decision this invasion was and future leaders will hopefully think twice about destroying their own country.

nmehner··on There are not enough BTUs
Do you really think so?

Russia has no way of winning this conflict. Their military is facing huge losses (increasing their demographic problems), there is no way they can keep Ukraine occupied and they have given up on regime change. The Russian economy is in shambles because of the sanctions (which hit a lot harder because of strong ties with western markets) and will never recover. Europe has accelerated its departure from fossil fuels.

Putin has fired some generals and placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest.

How can this be seen other then a total strategic blunder of Putin? Do you really think Xi is looking at this mess and be like "Yeah, give me one of those, too."?

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