1,706 karma · joined March 10, 2023
2-3 chatbots (prolly OAI, Gemini, Claude) will own the whole context, everywehre
And you can think through with first principles to see why it won’t expand developer hiring. Since AI progress is jagged, some industries will be affected in outsized ways while others may thrive more. But the increase in demand from new industries won’t absorb the reduction in demand from disrupted industries.
Old GPUs (ex hopper, A100) prices has been dropping but the new ones will go up.. so yes it doesn’t need to crash for you to have cheaper gpus
the market hasn't priced in Sam Altman's Capex projections, so it's probably akin to 1998 or 1999
That aside, his math is wrong
Bubbles don't pop without indiscriminate euphoria (Private markets are a different story, but VCs are fked anyways). If anything, the prices have reflected less than 20% of Capex projections, so the market clearly thinks OpenAI / Stargate / FAANG's capex plans are BS.
p.s. if everyone thinks it's a bubble, it generally rallies even more..