4,712 karma · joined November 13, 2022
https://x.com/ianmiles/status/1980957928791437360?s=46
The result will be lower GDP. But the culture will remain strictly Japanese
It’s literally the ads and bloatware. Windows is horrible unless you are technical enough to strategically disable the bloatware, and keep on disabling it as the updates continually reenable it. And if you are technical enough to disable it then Linux isn’t a problem.
Microsoft really is enterprise, cloud, and GitHub / AI tools. Windows for personal users is harvesting as much cash as possible from boomers and gamers, but the gamers are leaving en masse now. Software professionals only use macOS or Linux unless they are a MS shop that has to use Windows stack.
It is an incredible shift for those of us who have been around forever. But it’s a true look at how impossible things shift, bit by bit, until all of a sudden it all washes away. Never believe the tech cos on top today can’t be beat. It can and will happen someday
But we don't do this. So all else being equal, I would suggest we reorient towards other types of renewable energy, especially nuclear, if we are longer worried about price
Pass whatever rules you want. It isn’t going to change the fundamental nature of the org, which is a reflection of the voters. This is a government problem, through and through
> Someone’s got to pay as papa becomes grand-père, but the forecast is bleak. Today there are 39 seniors for every 100 working-age people in France. But by 2070 working-age French will account for only 50% of the population, down from more than 55% in 2023.
If only half the population is working-age and many of them are on the dole or not working (as they are now), it's quite clear the entire social appartus will need to be supported by a fraction of the population. To be clear - this will not work! The political turbulence in France will only increase. They can't even sustain their minor reduction in retirement age from 64 to 62 without the government imploding. There is literally zero chance of saving this system. Collapse followed by massive cuts is the only way
translated:
> Of the 6.2 million people registered with France Travail in the 3rd quarter of 2024, 6 out of 10 are beneficiaries supported by the Unemployment Insurance. Persons not in charge of the Unemployment Insurance have not worked sufficiently to open a right or to reload it, or work on a contract that has not been broken, or are out of the field (part of the civil service, resignations and self-employed). Within the 3.8 million people in care, 2.6 million receive compensation. Those in care but who do not receive an allowance have generally worked and received a high salary relative to their reference salary. They may also be covered by the Health Insurance or in deferred compensation at the beginning of their right.
> Those under 35 represent a significant proportion of the beneficiaries (41%). They are more frequently hired for limited-time contracts, which more often leads them to grant unemployment insurance.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-decline-of-europe-in-gallic-...
> Meanwhile, public spending accounts for 57% of the French GDP. And “to ensure the financing of spending for those over 65,” it will steadily increase to 60.8% by 2070, the Court of Auditors found. That’s assuming per capita spending stays at 2023 levels instead of increasing. Social spending will inevitably crowd out other priorities, including defense.
In the AI analogy, never underestimate the productivity of a human when dealing with a giant pile of groceries. You can throw all the AI and robots you can at something but sometimes a $20 an hour human picking from stacks of goods and produce simply destroys it in raw economics
Imagine if the USA’s founding legend wasn’t the honorable Founding Fathers, Declaration of Independence, and all that jazz, but instead how our ancestors kidnapped and raped the women of the neighboring tribe. The psychology of such a people to remember and retell this story is pretty incredible