HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

marcelsalathe

733 karma · joined July 5, 2012

YC W14 founder, EPFL prof, co-founder of www.AIcrowd.com
submissionscomments
marcelsalathe··on Infectious disease doesn't care why you're unvaccinated
Good points. I would just add two things. First, as you say, the percentage you need to reach herd immunity depends on a lot of factors. Broadly speaking, the vaccination coverage you need is 1 - 1/R0, where R0 is the basic reproductive number of the disease (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number). For diseases like measles, where the estimated R0 is above 10, you need at least 90% vaccinated, perhaps even more; for other diseases it may be lower.

Second, even if you reach herd immunity, it is a concept that completely relies on a random vaccination distribution. Say your R0 is 10, and you have attained a vaccination coverage of 90%, you may still get lots of outbreaks, because the 10% that are unvaccinated may not be randomly distributed. Indeed, it's becoming quite clear that in almost all cases unvaccinated people are clustered. This is why you get these sporadic outbreaks in under-vaccinated communities.

We (some of my colleagues at the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and I) are doing a MOOC this fall on exactly these topics: https://www.coursera.org/course/epidemics

marcelsalathe··on Text of letter to Edward Snowden from his father and father’s attorney
Really interesting. Thanks for the link.
marcelsalathe··on Text of letter to Edward Snowden from his father and father’s attorney
Jeez, take a break. No need to swear. I did google it but couldn't find much.
marcelsalathe··on Text of letter to Edward Snowden from his father and father’s attorney
Re D of I: I'm honestly curious: is that true? Evidence?
marcelsalathe··on Academia Is Eating Its Young
There really isn't anything substantive in this post. Almost all of the problems that are linked to are due to funding cuts.

"Science and academia are entirely broken today, but we can longer afford to wait for the dinosaurs to die." Please - what exactly is the author trying to say? What exactly is broken, who are the dinosaurs, and what do they have to do with it? Science works very well, as it long has, and in fact in works much much better than it ever has, due to increasing transparency and fairness in all aspects of the academic pipeline (admission, graduation, funding, peer review, publication, etc.)

Certainly, funding is tight, which might drive a lot of very creative people away - but a lot of very creative people remain, and not everybody wants to be in academia anyway.

Also, it's true that academia can be very inefficient, but that's not globally true, and neither is it an academic problem alone. Most importantly, it's something that can be fixed.

marcelsalathe··on Doubts about Johns Hopkins research have gone unanswered, scientist says
1/5? That would be nice... NIH funding levels are at 1/10 nowadays.
marcelsalathe··on Unreported Side Effects of Drugs Found Using Internet Data, Study Finds
Does anyone have the link to the original article? I can't find it on the JAMIA website, and there is no link on the NYT site either
marcelsalathe··on Herd Immunity Demonstration
This is a cool visual demonstration of the concept.

The concept of herd immunity, and how it breaks down, especially due to personal opinions, is my main research interest. I've published a couple of papers over the years, for those who are interested (all are open access):

The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/29/1505.ful...

Assessing Vaccination Sentiments with Online Social Media: Implications for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Control http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal...

Complex Social Contagion Makes Networks More Vulnerable to Disease Outbreaks http://arxiv.org/abs/1211.0518

marcelsalathe··on RubyMonk
Would be great if it worked on iOS devices. Strange enough, the keyboard doesn't show up when touching a text field.
marcelsalathe··on Everything you need to know about Machine Learning in 30 minutes or less
I agree. But my impression was that she took the fact that google translate rapidly decays into gibberish as an indication that it's not doing a good enough job. I don't think you can argue that exactly because google translate does not have the interpretation capability.
marcelsalathe··on Everything you need to know about Machine Learning in 30 minutes or less
Nice talk. The example of google translate is not a good one though. Say you translate from language A to language B with 99% accuracy, and vice versa, which would be pretty awesome, you'd still have a substantial quality decay after only a few back and forth translations (0.99^x where x is the number of translation steps).
← PreviousPage 2 of 2