1,245 karma · joined April 3, 2012
- you need 1 meter of water shielding to reduce radiation to safe levels[0]
- each cubic meter of water is 1 metric ton
- Starship's circumference is ~28 meters
Assuming you only shield 4 meters of the length of the ship, not counting the top and bottom cross sections of the cylinder, you've already blown past the 100T payload capacity of Starship.
However, it is a bit problematic that landing a rocket on the lunar surface can kick rocks around the planet (thanks to the low gravity), possibly into orbit or beyond (which could pelt other equipment). So you need to switch to an entirely different propulsion system for descent, which carries a payload penalty.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Solar_sy...
https://everydayastronaut.com/raptor-engine/ (scroll down to the text immediately above the RP1/Methane/Hydrogen chart)
1. No atmosphere means no weathering, so all of the moon dust is incredibly sharp and easily coats equipment when it gets kicked up. This dust quickly wears out joints and contact surfaces.
2. The Moon's low gravity and lack of atmosphere mean that you have to carry extra propellant to land.
3. Lack of easily extractable resources. It is comparatively easier to extract water and CO2 on Mars to generate methane for a return trip. A trip to the moon requires carrying all of the fuel for a return trip as well.
Nuclear-powered ships built in orbit would drop transit times significantly but I wonder if they'd significantly reduce Mars <-> Earth costs (you'd still need Starships to shuttle payloads through the atmosphere). They are probably required for mining the asteroid belt though...
- $50,000/kilogram for 27,500kg of payload (Space Shuttle, 1981-2011)
- $2,500/kg for 22,800kg of payload (SpaceX Falcon 9, 2010-present)
- $20/kg* for 100,000kg of payload (SpaceX Starship, 2022??)
*: This is the estimated operational cost, not the price of a launch
For a ballpark launch cost estimate, assuming that the mirror segments would be mass constrained rather than volume, it would cost $8M (plus however far off the cost estimates are, plus profit) just to get the mass into space. Maybe say $20M just to pad it a bit? There would almost certainly need to be more money spent on designing the whole thing to work in space, of course. But these projects have long planning horizons, there's no way anyone would have considered building something large in space before Starship was announced (other than nation-state level prestige projects).
I suspect we'll see a flood of small to medium sized projects announced once Starship completes its first commercial LEO launch, then larger projects tentatively announced in the following couple of years.
Sources on costs:
I completely agree with your reasons why it hasn't been explored further (sadly budget issues killed even a small experimental module for the ISS[1]). Just how large is somewhat disputed though[2, pages 20-22]. By these estimates, ~10 Starship launches (ballpark $100M-500M launch price tag) could loft a dumbbell-shaped rotating station into LEO.
1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrifuge_Accommodations_Modu...
2: https://space.nss.org/wp-content/uploads/Space-Settlement-Po...
Which could possibly use Hyper under the hood :-P
I am not claiming this is good or bad, but clicks are not a good enough signal of efficacy for the vast majority of ads shown on the internet.