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leonidasrup

1,790 karma · joined March 10, 2026

Ex-nuclear power plant engineer
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leonidasrup··on What will our economic future look like?
"Capital stands as one of the most influential and controversial books ever written. Its legacy is multifaceted, shaping intellectual discourse, political movements, and the historical trajectory of the 20th and 21st centuries."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Das_Kapital#Legacy

My hypothesis is that if you go full socialism, you get stagnation, because no one is motivated to change anything. If you go full capitalism, you get Gilded Age, where wealth and political power is concentrated in the hands of few individuals, followed by Great Depression.

Healthy state is in the middle.

leonidasrup··on What will our economic future look like?
Economy are seats getting smaller, but also modern airplanes are much fuel efficient.

"Between 1950 and 2018, efficiency per passenger grew from 0.4 to 8.2 RPK per kg of CO2"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft

https://www.explore.com/1762212/reason-why-plane-experience-...

leonidasrup··on What will our economic future look like?
" The central argument of Capital is that the motivating force of capitalism is in the exploitation of labour, whose unpaid work is the ultimate source of surplus value and profit. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Das_Kapital

leonidasrup··on Norwegian gas plant that could safeguard Europe from Trump
> Rock and a hard place, We need to expand renewable's fast enough to reduce our demand for fossil fuels but we still have that demand while it is on-going (and we'll still have some demand even when we've built out the renewable's unless we also build out a vast network of grid level storage or go nuclear).

Federal government of Germany has been the majority shareholder in Uniper since December 2022 with a stake of 99.12%.

In the article "“All my customers in Europe, they have a transition strategy and they're working on investing in renewables. But they're also securing long-term contracts for gas,” Equinor CEO Anders Opedal told POLITICO last week, shortly after signing a 15-year gas supply contract with the German utility Uniper."

German government knows, that despite expansion of solar and wind (they have allocated 100 billion Euro in KTF), Germany will import fossil fuels for a very long time, if they don't want to destroy the German industry (follow UK, Italy). Even legally binding German net-zero legislation don't change the laws of physics.

https://www.uniper.energy/investors/share/shareholder-struct...

https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Web/DE/Themen/Oeffent...

leonidasrup··on Flock Wants a Closely Surveilled World with No Exit
"

The third-party doctrine is a United States legal doctrine that holds that people who voluntarily give information to third parties, such as banks and phone companies, generally have "no reasonable expectation of privacy" in that information. This precedent, established in Supreme Court cases in the 1970s, allows the U.S. government to obtain information from third parties without a legal warrant and without otherwise complying with the Fourth Amendment prohibition against search and seizure without probable cause and a judicial search warrant. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third-party_doctrine

leonidasrup··on Navier-Stokes – Tristan Buckmaster [pdf]
> - Tristan is suspicious of the timing, as only few others were trying this approach. OpenAI says the model didn't access his user data directly, but leaves unanswered whether Tristan's chat conversations were part of the training.

The question, for AI customers, is when they build products using services of AI-companies, would AI-companies engage in theft of customer data for use in training?

leonidasrup··on Copyright does more harm than good and should be abolished
" Since 1990, The Walt Disney Company had lobbied for copyright extension. The legislation delayed the entry into the public domain of the earliest Mickey Mouse cartoons, leading detractors to the nickname "The Mickey Mouse Protection Act".

In addition to Disney, California congresswoman Mary Bono (Sonny Bono's widow and Congressional successor), and the estate of composer George Gershwin supported the act. Mary Bono, speaking on the floor of the United States House of Representatives, said:

    Actually, Sonny wanted the term of copyright protection to last forever. I am informed by staff that such a change would violate the Constitution. ... As you know, there is also [then-MPAA president] Jack Valenti's proposal for term to last forever less one day. Perhaps the Committee may look at that next Congress.
"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
It's really shame that in 21st century humanity is burning stuff to produce energy.
leonidasrup··on Volkswagen to cut 100,000 jobs by end of decade
Frank Blome CEO of PowerCo SE majored in electrical engineering at the Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences, which is a better then mechanical engineering (Volkswagen CEO). But as electrical engineer myself, chemical engineer would be a better option. They should employs someone from BASF, battery cell production is really a chemical production.

https://battery-power.eu/en/frank-blome-powerco-se/

leonidasrup··on Among European Companies That Use a CDN, Nearly 9 in 10 Use Cloudflare
Most Tier 1 network owners are U.S. companies or U.S. friendly companies, tapping undersea cables is not necessary in many cases, just ask the owner.
leonidasrup··on Among European Companies That Use a CDN, Nearly 9 in 10 Use Cloudflare
There is nothing magical about these NSA hacks:

NSA putting implants into Cisco equipment before delivery to the customer.

https://www.certificationkits.com/nsa-upgrade-process-cisco-...

ANT catalogue from 2008 with hacking equipment:

https://dcssproject.net/ant-catalogue/index.html

leonidasrup··on There's a new "Google Jail" for independent wikis
Courts should review past decisions

Field v. Google, Inc. (2006)

https://www.practicalecommerce.com/Search-Engines-Indexing-a...

Authors Guild v. Google, Inc. (2015)

https://www.flaglerlawgroup.com/a-new-era-for-fair-use-court...

leonidasrup··on Volkswagen to cut 100,000 jobs by end of decade
Volkswagen AG net income for the quarter ending June 30, 2026 was $1.493B, a 39.54% decline year-over-year.

Volkswagen AG net income for the twelve months ending June 30, 2026 was $6.155B, a 32.38% decline year-over-year.

Volkswagen AG annual net income for 2025 was $7.55B, a 34.92% decline from 2024.

Volkswagen AG annual net income for 2024 was $11.601B, a 33.06% decline from 2023.

Volkswagen AG annual net income for 2023 was $17.331B, a 10.64% increase from 2022.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/VWAGY/volkswagen-a...

German car manufacturers decided against European battery cell production already in 2018.

https://www.reuters.com/article/business/bosch-shuns-battery...

Oliver Blume, the CEO of the Volkswagen Group, has PhD in mechanical engineering. Volkswagen should select someone who has PhD in battery chemistry as the next CEO.

CEO of the BYD Company, Wang Chuanfu, studied metallurgical physical chemistry. BYD was formally founded on 10 February 1995 as Shenzhen BYD Battery Company Limited, with a focus on producing rechargeable nickel–cadmium (NiCd) batteries.

leonidasrup··on Carbon-aware electricity pricing, measured daily on 38 grids
I'm advocating for more nuclear, for deep decarbonization (removing 99% of CO2 output) and removing of all uses of fossil fuels. And as humanity we failing, because CO2 output is still rising.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/co2-em...

I think the best option would be a world wide CO2 tax, because we already see carbon leakage, competitive advantage of economies with more CO2 production, but cheaper energy and cheaper products. (China, US over Europe)

> Resiliency requires redundancy and that means excess production capacity.

Redundancy is good and desirable, but someone has to pay for the infrastructure even when it's not fully utilized or is used to full extend only few times a year (Dunkelflaute). Overbuilding electricity production and overbuilding electric grid is expensive. In the past get to high reliability countries had only about 5 - 10% spare electric production capacity, not a spare coal power plant for each running coal power plant.

"Of course, the probability of Dunkelflaute is higher in winter, with peaks in November and January. Here, on average, there are 50-100 hours of Dunkelflaute per month, and as many as 150 hours in Sweden."

https://www.kraftblock.com/blog/bringing-light-into-dunkelfl...

When more solar/wind is installed on grid the necessary builds of backup peaker gas plants, expansion of electric grids to balance out the weather caused variations in production is no calculated in the LCOE of the solar/wind power plant. LCOE for solar PV plus battery storage is better indicator, but even then doesn't include the backup peaker gas plants and expansion of electric grids. (China builds backup coal power plants for solar).

> solar panels are dirt cheap

Solar panels are dirt cheap, because they are made in China. Polysilicon production is very energy intensive and China has a lot cheap electricity. Lot of production in Inner Mongolia, lot of sunshine and lot of coal.

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2025/12/china-takes-9-...

> excess energy, it can be used for green hydrogen

How to do it economically is a open research problem, because Alkaline water electrolysis has problems with fluctuating solar power supply (battery storage and solar overbuilding may be necessary) and Proton exchange membrane electrolysis is expensive (uses expensive metal because of corrosion).

https://raw-science.org/iridium-pem-electrolysers/

https://www.solas.capital/hydrogen-vs-energy-efficiency-inve...

Isn't the Romania Romania battery storage system buildout enabled by subsidies (tax payers money) ?

https://cop31tr.com/romania-shifts-solar-subsidies-toward-ba...

> You have a fixed worldview, the grid is an unchangeable fixed structure, and it can never be changed because you wrote a bit of software in COBOL 50 years back. What happened in your 20s is the best and ideal grid and it should never change. In your age of fossil fuel, production was far away, needed transmission infrastructure to bring power to the cities. Because coal is extremely polluting, hydro is geo-fixed and nuclear needs to be far (nobody will allow it). None of those assumptions are true anymore.

I didn't see any COBOL code, oldest code was Pascal, but was been replaced because Sun stopped official support of Pascal compiler on Solaris.

Coal burning is terrible, lot of particulate matter (depending on the filtering system of the coal plant), sulfur, toxic heavy metals (lead, arsenic, cadmium), radioactive elements (uranium, thorium and decay products) (under normal situation coal power plant outputs more radioactive material then nuclear power plant into air). Gas is much cleaner, but still some methane leakage and lot of CO2.

> nuclear needs to be far (nobody will allow it)

We scared the people to death in 1970s, 1980s, 1990s with nuclear fear mongering. Movies: China syndrome, Dr. Strangelove, and other. Nuclear power production has been made equal with nuclear weapons. Activists presented each nuclear powerplant as ticking nuclear bomb.

Chernobyl was a big Soviet failure, but probably smaller then the 1984 Bhopal chemical disaster.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster

leonidasrup··on Carbon-aware electricity pricing, measured daily on 38 grids
What is the average electricity price in Australia?

Australia has still lot of work to do in decarbonization of economy, as on only 8% of primary energy is from low-carbon energy sources.

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/australia#how-much...

Even China has currently higher share of energy from low-carbon sources. 12 % in 2025.

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china#how-much-of-...

Comparison between China, Australia, Europe, France.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-mix?tab=line&count...

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
In addition to this China imports about 10℅ of its coal consumption. Could it increase the imports?

In historical terms, it took about 60 milion years to form this coal layers. Humanity will burn them in few centuries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carboniferous

From the point of view of energy. The conversion of solar energy into coal is very inefficient, tree need energy to reproduce, only a part of plant is converted into coal, other organisms consuming plant matter, etc.

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
Why choose a single currency? Just return to gold standard, values of goods and services denominated in mg, g, kg of gold.

Most international trade is already done electronicaly, so there would not much need to physicaly move gold.

Goverments don't like gold standard because they can't print gold.

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
China has large coal reserves, enough for many decades.

"China, the world’s largest coal consumer, has domestic reserves of coal to last the next 50 years, according to annual reserves data from the Ministry of Natural Resources cited by Bloomberg.

At current rates of domestic production, China also has crude oil reserves that could last for at least 18 more years, according to the ministry"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Say...

https://www.mining.com/web/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to...

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
Switzerland has 4 of the 15 biggest gold refineries in the world in 2026

https://vinodvsharma.com/top-15-biggest-gold-refineries-in-t...

leonidasrup··on Netherlands pulls gold out of the US
"$20 Billion Oil Deals Paid in Chinese Yuan, US Dollar Left Out"

https://watcher.guru/news/20-billion-oil-deals-paid-in-chine...

"China and Saudi Arabia Settle First Oil Trade Using Digital Yuan"

https://www.economywatch.com/china-and-saudi-arabia-settle-f...

leonidasrup··on Record-High 89% in U.S. Say Government Corruption Widespread
Democratic Party primaries

"Many of the most damaging emails suggest the committee was actively trying to undermine Bernie Sanders's presidential campaign. Basically all of these examples came late in the primary -- after Hillary Clinton was clearly headed for victory -- but they belie the national party committee's stated neutrality in the race even at that late stage."

https://web.archive.org/web/20190630070810/https://www.washi...

leonidasrup··on Carbon-aware electricity pricing, measured daily on 38 grids
"Reliability: Five-nines availability (99.999%, under 6 minutes downtime annually), typically achieved by combining high grid reliability with backup generation."

https://speed2power.epri.com/demand-characteristics.html

I wrote software for monitoring and controling electric grids on country level and later software for controling nuclear power plants, I know a little bit about resiliency.

Physicaly, you can do 3X redundancy in electric generation and electric grid, as there are no physical laws against it, but such large infrastructure is expensive and you have to pay the CAPEX even if the infrastructure is almost never utilized. Also transporting electricity over large distances is really expensive, therefor only relative small amount of electricity can be transport in europe and future targets are modest.

"The EU has set an interconnection target of at least 15% by 2030 to encourage EU countries to interconnect their installed electricity production capacity. This means that each country should have electricity infrastructure in place that would allow it to import, from its neighbouring EU countries, an equivalent of at least 15% of the electricity production capacity on its territory."

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/infrastructure/electricit...

https://pubs.rsc.org/ee/article-abstract/11/3/469/565531/Rel...

Someone has to pay for this, either customers or tax payers (through goverment subsidies) and Europe already has high electricity prices (when compared with China and US).

"The energy sector is one of the largest and most important sectors of the world economy. Accounting for 8%–10% of world GDP, it is second only to health care in size and is equally pervasive in scope"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/energy-...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
> This article is about Pennsylvania

You are right, PJM grid is coal, nuclear and gas dominated.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/US-MIDA-PJM/live/fi...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
They still have 10 already build but not running reactors, bringing those online is the less costly way to increase nuclear power production.

https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
> When everyone's asleep? Serious doubt, please show your sources.

Lot of industry, especialy heavy industry, chemical plants are running 24/7.

For expensive night prices see electricity prices in Europe, expensive natural gas, coal power production with carbom tax.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/DE/live/fifteen_min...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
Japan learned from Fukishima nuclear accident, and many outside Japan forget that earthquake and tsunami had bigger impact in terms of material damage and cost of life then the nuclear accident.

Currently, economy of Japan (world biggest LNG importer) is hit hard by the events in Middle East. Because of this goverment starts maximum use of nuclear power policy.

https://www.nucnet.org/news/japan-council-adopts-policy-pack...

https://www.powermag.com/reactor-restart-rekindling-japans-n...

https://ieefa.org/resources/japans-diversified-lng-procureme...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
In many places the contraty is true, peak electricity prices are after sunset, during night.
leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
> How long does a solar farm take?

24–48 months, but for a data center that has to run 24/7 you need to also build a gas power plant.

https://www.pvfarm.io/blog/utility-scale-solar-project-devel...

https://globalenergymonitor.org/research/betting-big-data-ce...

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
Median build time for 1 GW nuclear power plant in Japan was 1721 days (4.7 years), first concrete to grid connection.

https://x.com/GrantChalmers/status/1422472474487263233

leonidasrup··on 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres
For wind turbine project from design and planning to operational use-takes approximately 4-7 years. An offshore wind turbine project requires about 7-10 years.

https://jmhpower.com/how-long-does-it-take-to-build-a-wind-t...

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