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legolas2412

644 karma · joined August 13, 2014

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legolas2412··on U.S. stock market returns – a history from the 1870s to 2022
> Curious if you have a source for that?

Some people think that we are facing secular stagnation, and the economic growth is slowing down. The avg federal reserve interest rates have been falling at 2% per decade for 5 decades, and signifies less growth in the economy. Sure, this low interest rates have actually fueled the stock market boom as the value of future earnings is high, but the growth is not sustainable. For one, we are going to end up with some stable p/e ratio, and the growth of stock market because of low interest rates will stop. And two, the interest rates will also stop going down as fast, as a rate of say -10% sounds pretty bad in what it means for the economy (negative growth of that magnitude), so people do not think we will have such a situation.

legolas2412··on Why hundreds of thousands of kids in the US dread their 21st birthdays
US is way more welcoming to family based immigration. US is not welcoming to employment based immigration, and specifically is easier for lower skilled ones than higher skilled ones. To top it off, it prefers countries from smaller countries.

All combined USA isn't as welcoming for higher skilled individuals from India and China vs other developed countries.

legolas2412··on Why hundreds of thousands of kids in the US dread their 21st birthdays
Does an Indian individual have a right to be treated equally as Icelandic individual, with respect to us immigration system? Because the system is unfairly discriminating against Indian citizens.
legolas2412··on Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive
Before Tesla launched model 3, targeted at 35k$, there was another EV launched. Chevrolet bolt launched at the same price range, and at a similar range. It didn't have the sleek look of a Tesla, lacked a supercharger network, and didn't have the lies of self driving, the hype machine and status symbol of a Tesla. As a result, it was a failure. When model 3 was actually launched, and much costlier than originally announced for, it was 50% costlier than the bolt. People still bought the model 3 over the bolt.

So, no, financial scrutiny is not why Tesla sells vehicles. It does because of the hype, the status symbol, the better design, and lies of self driving. And these don't really matter for trucks (except stock market rewarding hype, just like Bitcoin mania). So no, Tesla won't dominate the niche of short haul trucks that EV trucks have opened up.

legolas2412··on ‘We kind of lost track’: how SBF blurred lines between FTX and Alameda
His parents are stanford law professors.

They also received a 16 million dollar home from FTX.

legolas2412··on DoorDash lays off 1250 employees
Yup. Also, that is also just one problem.

USA hands out a million green cards, but only 150k for employment based. For all the talks of immigrants bringing skills, we are really not preferred. They'll hand out 50k "diversity visas" by lottery, but God forbid more than 10k indians come into the country for their skills. And even the skills based visas barely prefer more skilled or in demand immigrants. That's what they call "abuse" by H1B/eb1 but also oppose any wage based or PhD preferring rules. Hypocrites hiding their true racist intentions.

legolas2412··on Tesla Semi, a Deep Dive
0.1$/kwhr? Superchargers now cost up to 0.5$/kwhr. These cost money to build.

https://electrek.co/2022/09/28/tesla-hikes-supercharger-pric...

legolas2412··on Iran abolishes morality police
Guatemala,?
legolas2412··on DoorDash lays off 1250 employees
No country can get more than 7% of the employment or family based green cards.
legolas2412··on DoorDash lays off 1250 employees
That is true. USA has rules that prefer low skilled immigration, preferably family based, and forces even the high skilled immigration visas to be broad enough to not really prefer high skilled immigrants. Further, USA discriminates based on national origin.

Canada has policies that prefer high skilled immigrants coming for employment, and does not discriminate on where they come from.

So yeah, USA has more difficult for immigrants from big countries who want to contribute with their skills, while Canada welcomes those.

legolas2412··on DoorDash lays off 1250 employees
If you are arguing that there are an unsustainable number of employment based green cards being handed out, you could not be more wrong.

USA hands out a million green cards every year. But only 150k are employment based. These are capped at 7% for each country. Only 10k out of a million green cards are assigned per year for Indian immigrants based on their employments.

For all the talk of meritocracy, looking beyond skin color, and valuing high skilled immigrants, USA definitely has policies that discriminate on national origin and actively encourage low skilled immigration (2 million unauthorized border crossings, policies allowing rampant "abuse" in h1b/eb1c visas whenever high skilled immigrants are concerned, constant opposition to making it easier for PhDs to get a green card or say putting wage rules on h1b/eb1,2,3).

legolas2412··on The Case for Degrowth
> including the people they have schooled and trained to provide for their own population.

Oh, I didn't realize I was a slave to a country. And the act of immigration which I willfully do, and the host country is pretty much hostile about, is "stealing" me. If Western countries wanted to steal me, they should not have put up such roadblocks to immigration

legolas2412··on MIT invents $4 solar desalination device
Weird, that never stopped property tax. Why can't one have a wealth tax too.

Maybe we can tax only productive assets. And you don't need to sell a small proportion, just let the government own that tiny bit

legolas2412··on MIT invents $4 solar desalination device
I thought assets give positive return in the long run. Why should they not pay appropriate taxes for an economic system that increases inequality
legolas2412··on MIT invents $4 solar desalination device
> The rich have been dealing with ridiculous cost of living inflation since 2000

I hate the constant conflation of rich and wealthy. People who earn a lot of money vs people who own a lot of money. A lot of criticism about inequality, by politicians and economists alike, is about rising wealth inequality, but they only advocate and undertake policies to hurt the higher income class. Why is there no wealth tax, but the govt is funded primarily by income and payroll tax. Why is the federal reserve always worried about falling asset prices. And again here, rising house prices benefited the wealthy, and hurt the high income class, but you didn't differentiate between them either.

legolas2412··on Starlink Maritime
They also said that v2 has 5x more weight, and 10x more "capacity". Not sure what capacity is, and why falcon 9 isn't enough for something that's giving them 2x more "capacity" per unit mass.
legolas2412··on How do poor countries get rich?
I don't understand. Do you mean Americans are immigrating to China, given the trade imbalance?

Why does exporting come with the expectation of providing employment to countries who could not build competent industries. I am not anti-immigration, I am an immigrant myself, just trying to understand your argument.

I think economic immigration has nothing to do with trade imbalance, and all to do with quality of life. As an example, India may be exporting more to Greece, but there are many Indians who would rather live in Greece, and none in the other direction.

legolas2412··on Vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 detected in London, UK
I never understood why this is the position that media has taken. Do you also blame Dr. Fauci for the American vaccine deniers?

A doctor worked with American intelligence agencies to find the most wanted terrorist in the world. He is then imprisoned in Pakistan on made up charges, and is still in prison. Does the media sympathize with his plight. No. There is barely any coverage of this after 2012. Instead, the media is so concerned with low vaccination rates.

Is there a reason that media seems so biased to ignore a person's plight? A person who should be celebrated like a hero, not blamed like this.

legolas2412··on Experimenting with Rust in Chromium
Can you give examples for the articles? Very interested in knowing
legolas2412··on Judge orders trial in Tesla autopilot manslaughter case
In 2016, a video was published on Tesla's website "this car is driving itself, the driver is there just for legal reasons"

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/79991021385159065...

legolas2412··on Ask HN: How to ask employer to match inflation rate, independent of pay rise
What assets are losing value because of inflation? I thought cash is the only thing losing due to inflation, and debt is one that wins.

I swear the things you read about macroeconomics is all just contradicting each other.

legolas2412··on Barbary Pirates and English Slaves (2017)
Mitochondrial DNA comes from mother only. And Y chromosome only from father
legolas2412··on What to do if a cop tries to scan your face during a traffic stop
I'm going to appeal to authority here. The economists who wrote freakonomics surely controlled for that. They are the ones who published the abortion dropping crime paper.
legolas2412··on Gaslighting Asian Americans About College Admissions
Yeah, OP should have said that the policy is racially discriminatory
legolas2412··on Julian Assange can be extradited to the US, court rules
Just writing death threat for the president online is a crime.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikram_Buddhi

No other concrete step is needed.

legolas2412··on Musk, Others Sell Stock at Historic Levels as Market Soars, Tax Changes Loom
The government backs up assets overvalued by the banks and corrupt rating agencies. They make out like bandits, nobody goes to jail, housing becomes ever more unaffordable, but it somehow is "for the people". I'm sure the wealth distribution in real estate is pretty skewed too, with top 10% owning most of it, but it is "for the people". The wealthy get all the money, but somehow the working class is told that this is all done for them.
legolas2412··on SEC probes Tesla over whistleblower claims on solar panel defects
I think inflation works the other way, i.e. 64 million$ from decade ago would be like 80 million $ now.
legolas2412··on The Next ‘Lab Leak’
It isn't just proximity though.

It is also about doing dangerous research in imperfect conditions with no oversight, shady behavior like moving the dataset offline, hiding the testing status of kab members, or how the sister lab changed locations to move right next door to the wet market in fall.

It is also about how sars-cov-2 is unique in being the only beta coronavirus with a furin cleavage site, which allows it to be more infectious. It is also a coincidence to that in 2018 Wuhan was part of a failed grant to collect coronavirus in the wild and put furin cleavage sites on them. Failed grant sure, but everyone who works in academia knows that you start working on a grant for preliminary results even before it is filed. And who knows, maybe China funded this dangerous research.

The only problem in all this is how lab-leak was declared to be a settled conspiracy last year. And the only reason was because an orange idiot vouched for it.

legolas2412··on India tells public to shun Starlink until it gets licence
On par with what Elon musk does for FSD. American regulators do not care.
legolas2412··on New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529
Maybe you imagination is limited. China has done this precisely. They have kept the virus in check while limiting international travel and while being the world's factory. You open up when enough of your population is vaccinated.

I wonder why you feel that it is fine to say "too late" for this measure that obviously works. Do you also say too late to lockdowns, vaccine mandates, restaurant and schools closures, and mask requirements. If you don't, then maybe spend a moment thinking if your epidemic response is guided by your political allegiances

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