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learnstats2

2,395 karma · joined September 6, 2014

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learnstats2··on South Africa's lottery probed as 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 drawn
> Don't choose any pattern of numbers

...unless that pattern of numbers wins...

learnstats2··on How to buy gifts that people actually want
Around the age of 10 as well, a parent asked me if I was excited about the new PlayStation and if I wanted one for Christmas.

I made it painfully clear that I would still much prefer a SNES, and wasn't so bothered about a PlayStation.

It turned out that they had already bought a PlayStation before asking me (I'm sure they were sold out everywhere when I was asked), and so I got a PlayStation for Christmas.

Which was great! In theory.

But, overall I felt such a desperate disappointment that I hadn't been listened to.

learnstats2··on “Accentism” is real, but impossible to end
Having a broadly diverse team making hiring decisions might be a more useful solution.
learnstats2··on R number for UK below 1 for first time since August
> There is always a slight time lag in the R number of a matter of weeks

ah ok: that's not what I understand from how governments are reporting it.

My understanding is that it's the (best estimate) of how virus cases are spreading today.

Since the graph of cases for today tells you how the virus has spread in the last two weeks, that's not the same information.

If you claim that R is only estimated from the historical number of cases, then R is not giving you information that you couldn't technically identify from this graph, I agree. However, R could be estimated using other information.

learnstats2··on R number for UK below 1 for first time since August
Not quite.

R tells you: the graph is likely to keep going up (or will peak and go down). Policy makers should care about this more.

learnstats2··on Greg LeMond’s New 26 LB. Carbon Fiber Ebike
I read that more than half of new bikes sold in the Netherlands (around half a million per year) are e-bikes.

It has become more difficult to underestimate the popularity of e-bikes, now that I get overtaken by a steady stream of pensioners every time there is a slight uphill.

learnstats2··on R number for UK below 1 for first time since August
I have found it consistently disappointing that the BBC has been putting out UK government statistics and interpretations uncritically - as we see (for example) in the headline here.
learnstats2··on Five Second Feedback
> Can I give you some feedback?

> Can you change that?

I also find these very blunt - this is what I would say if the person I was exerting my authority and the person I was talking to really had no choice, but I was being polite about it.

I would soften them a lot if I wasn't in a position of authority, or if I wanted to genuinely engage with that person.

Also in any case, I would say precisely what it was about:

"Can I give you feedback about X?" so that it doesn't induce anxiety and the person has a realistic idea of what they are being asked before they decide, and,

"[You're doing good work, and] it would be better if you did Y" to reiterate and reinforce the goal.

learnstats2··on UVB-76
Wikipedia article makes it clear was an uptick in observed/known voice chatter.

That the public might be likely to observe more thoroughly makes it less of a coincidence.

learnstats2··on Leaf-cutter ants have rocky crystal armor, never before seen in insects
Considering that leaf-cutter ants are well-known to humans (I've seen them in a museum in Amsterdam), I'd say it is surprising that we haven't noticed this before.
learnstats2··on The Nintendo Switch uses my open source code
So that's saved them 5 developer-days of work? They can afford to send a Switch. It would be a nice gesture.
learnstats2··on The Nintendo Switch uses my open source code
Why are you characterising asking for money for (open source) work as begging?

That doesn't seem right.

learnstats2··on Why Getting Paid for Your Data Is a Bad Deal
> Summed up, I'm currently saving just over 11% on all the groceries + ~7% on fuel cost by sharing that information with 5 companies.

I don't think this is the exchange you are making, though.

The money you save here is no different from couponing: it's a way for retailers to price differentiate and charge the other customers more.

You are being charged a fairer price (still profitable for the retailer), for actively paying attention to what's cheaper; that'll be unrelated to the price or value of your data.

learnstats2··on The Uniqueness of Mammals
This appears to be a list of things that we have no reason to bother to observe in non-mammals.

I've heard most of them said to be unique to humans. (the most insightful comment in the article is e.g. "There is very little data on mammalian defecation.")

My conclusion is: we like to study ourselves, we are not that bothered about studying other creatures.

learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
This suggestion is literally colonialism.
learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
> partly via suppressing competition and exploiting labour
learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
This example is a specific benefit, but not one that Amazon has provided.

It's a benefit that online shopping has provided, which Amazon has monopolized, partly via suppressing competition and exploiting labour (which society has to pay for in other ways).

learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
The fact that Bezos can get incredibly richer this year, while other people struggle harder is symptomatic of a system that allows inequality - it's not that Bezos getting richer in itself causes inequality.

Bezos's wealth is already effectively unbounded. He has the same wealth as ~50% of the population of United States altogether. That won't immediately change if you uplift poor people's income (since income is not wealth). Why is it important to consider his right to get even richer?

learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
A better HN title would be: "Parental income and later risk of developing a mental disorder"
learnstats2··on Low parental income in childhood linked to increased risk of mental disorders
Aren't those the same?

If you raised everyone's income above a minimum threshold, that would reduce income inequality by almost any measure.

Gini coefficient (the most commonly used inequality measure) effectively uses logarithms in its calculations: so raising incomes away from zero is the most effective way of reducing inequality by this metric (and most other metrics, and, I think, in most people's minds).

[Edit: are y'all down-voting because I said something technically wrong, or because you disagree in your mind? I'd like to know.]

learnstats2··on I should have loved biology
Long division perhaps does teach you how to follow a complex algorithm by hand, but it's not at all necessary for the math curriculum at any stage from K-12 up to university.

It's somewhat out of fashion because a good sense of number is just as useful for dividing by hand, and more useful for understanding what's going on (plus, you do now always have a calculator in your pocket).

learnstats2··on I should have loved biology
I think student-led education is a useful model: where students have a say in what they find important and in their own education. (This applies for all children, not only for adolescent boys)

The curriculum has too much influence from adults whose goals (sometimes openly stated!) are for a compliant labour force with a reduced training cost on particular work-focussed skills.

That's at the expense of (for example:) relationship and mental health education, creative arts, critical thinking skills, financial education, talent development, practical entrepreneurship, and the idea that children can have and create value in their own right.

As such, this is regularly a complete mismatch to what's going to be useful to kids when and as they grow up, and kids often know it: even while they don't have the political power to make change.

learnstats2··on To find great remote employees, prioritize candidates with strong writing skills
I'd note that "strong writing skills" here means being able to communicate information fluently, not having perfect grammar and spelling.

Those skills are not always in alignment - I've worked happily with great written communicators who couldn't spell for shift.

learnstats2··on The Rise and Fall of Getting Things Done
I've noticed that people whose jobs I would describe as "appear busy" have really upped their game around arranging unnecessary Zoom meetings (where nothing comparable was necessary before) - to appear busy while remote.
learnstats2··on Fleets: A new way to join the conversation
What I mean is:

"Both Willy [a wizard] and Harry are required to work out the exact nature of the main task of the contest which they both achieve in a bathroom assisted by clues from helpers, in order to discover how to rescue human hostages imprisoned by a community of half-human, half-animal fantasy creatures."

is very comparable to your completely hypothetical example above.

So, if a paragraph of cherry-picked, high-level description are the only identified similarities, there is no case in copyright law.

learnstats2··on Fleets: A new way to join the conversation
> I bet I would get a call from Disney's lawyers.

Disney's lawyers are famously litigious. I'm not clear that they would win a case here. (Although they might have success with this HN comment as evidence)

The Adventures of Willy the Wizard: Livid Land (1987) has a similar high-level of comparison to Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2000), and that case was thrown out.

learnstats2··on DARPA’s 23 Challenge Questions
Hm, these are high-level concepts so it's hard.

Duality in mathematics is in general a principle that objects in one category can be mapped onto another category (and vice versa), that two objects are reflections of each other in some abstract sense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duality_(mathematics)

It most often appears as a principle in geometry. Looking at or working with the 'dual' of something can give additional insight or allow another way of working. For example, Fourier Transform can be considered a type of duality.

I'm not clear what computational techniques are expected here - I personally don't think it's a very well-formed problem.

learnstats2··on Sweden bans public events of more than eight people
> encourage healthy people to seroconvert

It's almost never a good medical strategy to intentionally get ill.

Pox parties are extremely dangerous.

learnstats2··on So you've made a mistake and it's public
> I did a lot of sincere public apologizing

If you generally live by your own values, and act according to them, then (in my opinion) you should rarely need to apologise for that.

Why did you need to do a lot of apologizing, I'm curious?

If I think of particular people I personally know who frequently apologise, it often seems to me that they are doing that to centre and prioritise their own experience ahead of other people's - which perhaps was exactly the problem in the first place. That type of apology can taste slightly sour.

I find that listening is a more important aspect of apologising than talking.

learnstats2··on Apple Silicon M1 chip in MacBook Air outperforms high-end 16-inch MacBook Pro
The price seems to be the same except for tax. Germany has a 16% rate (July-Dec 2020) and Czechia 21% for sales tax/VAT.
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