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kumarski

5,830 karma · joined March 23, 2012

American. Engineer. Dog walker.
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kumarski··on The FTC wants to ban tough-to-cancel subscriptions
This is going to be amazing if you can time it.
kumarski··on A world to win: WebAssembly for the rest of us
cloudflare did a piece on how WASM supports it. ~18% of all websites on the web run through cloudflare.

https://blog.cloudflare.com/big-pineapple-intro/

(I'm not a software developer)

kumarski··on Launch HN: Electric Air (YC W23) – Heat pump sold directly to homeowners
HVAC distro is a racket that was mobbed up along with the financing.

There seems to be no marketing distribution conspiracy to find the 2M of 120M homes per year that need to be replaced.

Massive problem for cos like watsco.

The marketing costs for installers are insane and finding the 2M homes is a needle in a haystack biz.

Heat pumps are only kosher for mild winters.

Demographics shifting stateside might make this a bad business as people are depopulating everything west of San Antonio b/c of aquifer shortages etc... on a 20 year basis.

kumarski··on Towards sustainable desalination (2019)
Very tough problem and likely not possible.

Look at energy requirements of desal vs. fresh water pollution proliferation.

10-14 kwh required to desal 1000 gallons of water.

50% of world's food supply is powered by proliferation of phosphorus and nitrogen rich fertilizer and their corresponding runoff.

kumarski··on Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab
Solves no problem.

Fusion plants have exorbitant feedstock price volatility and are only marginally smaller than a fission planet, despite square footage not being the scope of the worlds' energy problems today.

kumarski··on Extism: Make all software programmable with WebAssembly
WebAssembly ecosystem booming it seems.
kumarski··on WasmEdge
Syrus is a technocrat's technocrat and a big open source contributor. I watch from the sidelines in awe as the community builds wasmer and the wasm ecosystem.
kumarski··on Chainalysis CTO said blockchain is easier to trace than paper money
not a misnomer at all. They are crypto ATMs, and that's what the industry knows them for.
kumarski··on Chainalysis CTO said blockchain is easier to trace than paper money
Nonsense.

Go to GBTC ATM shops in Barcelona, they'll do KYC-less $100K transactions for 4% transaction fees. I was shocked and walked out of the shop.

If you come to South Florida, you'll find that there was an era where cartels would pay high schoolers to roll up to ATM's and empty them of cash one by one.

Crypto ATMs have 7%-15% fees with no KYC up to 1k USD and have grown about 5x-10x in the last 5 years in the USA.

Ask yourself, do Somalis in Minneapolis care about cryptocurrency or did the proliferation of Crypto ATMs in the city and subsequent drought of court cases around Al Shabab money laundering in the region have some sort of relevant relationship?

If you go to China, from what I've been told, there's private OTC massive wechat groups that have coded words for crypto transactions.

In India, it's the same now, you can liquidate crypto on the street with ease.

The real problem now for the market cap of cryptos is the ultimate draw down in the growth rate of KYC'd accounts in demographically high gdp growth countries.

India implemented 1% per trade, zero loss deduction, 30% cap gains taxes on crypto...essentially incentivizing indigenous stock ownership over any and all crypto assets.

Portugal implemented crypto short term capital gain taxes as well.

It might be easier to trace than paper money, but it's still a world class indefatigable money laundering substrate that trades well with watches and other asset classes.

Customs agents at major ports of entries have not been checking watches. Miami etc...

kumarski··on PayPal’s updated acceptable use policy [pdf]
The criminal laughed when I said the same thing to him. His response was "You're just an analyst behind a computer, I moved weight. Paypal was a godsend. Cash was painful."

Go hit the street, talk to ex-cons and white collar criminals, your view is simplistic and lacks depth of on the ground reality.

kumarski··on PayPal’s updated acceptable use policy [pdf]
under any compliant diligent process, it would not take minutes to set this up.

CashApp was a haven for criminal leverage of the homestead act-types.

kumarski··on PayPal’s updated acceptable use policy [pdf]
Something that should take longer than a few minutes to setup a merchant account for.
kumarski··on PayPal’s updated acceptable use policy [pdf]
Most people never want to acknowledge the sheer scope and scale of Paypal and Square's Cash app's usage as large scale money laundering, drug trafficking, and prostitution tooling. (and much more)

They didn't really even try to stop it in the early days. You could setup an injectable immunomodulator merchant account in under 10 minutes with Square. People started entire pill mills using Square and Paypal. It was wild!

Similar to Turo who allowed the vehicles of their users to be used by weak KYC'd users. You never knew who was actually driving the vehicle.

I had loads of interesting conversations with Ex San Quentin prisoners, was riveting to listen to some of them talk about the crimes committed with all the fintech startups. Everything I thought I knew was wrong.

Paypal/Square Mafia's used cheap pension money of VC's to take their vig.

kumarski··on Catalytic process with lignin could enable sustainable aviation fuel
Anyone wanna take a bet that kwh required to create and process a pound of lignin into the desired format exceeds its useful energy output at all low, medium, and high scale?
kumarski··on Korean nuclear fusion reactor achieves 100M°C for 30 seconds
There's no net benefit to fusion.

Dispatch and transmission are a thing even if all the software developer/ECE/Physicist folks downvote my comments.

kumarski··on Korean nuclear fusion reactor achieves 100M°C for 30 seconds
Fusion is pointless.

Fusion reactors make nuclear power plants marginally smaller.

Dispatch and transmission costs are still a thing.

kumarski··on Solein – Protein out of thin air
There's really only 3 sources that serve as a backstop for protein - nitrogen production.

1. Lightning strikes ~5% of world supply of nitrogen fertilizer

2 & 3. Synbiotic bacteria + Haber Bosch - the 95%.

kumarski··on High property taxes are good
If you analyze how tax dollars are spent, you'd disagree.

50% of US GDP is about to become US gov't expenditure.

kumarski··on Show HN: VideoMentions – Search YouTube based on the spoken words in videos
Is this based on acoustic keyword recognition or SRT search?
kumarski··on Tokamak Energy sets a temperature record among commercial fusion companies
Are you comparing it to Chernobyl?
kumarski··on Tokamak Energy sets a temperature record among commercial fusion companies
Fusion is irrelevant.

It marginally reduces the size of a fission plant, a non-problem.

It presents klingon level engineering problems.

The feedstock and its subsequent volatility are civilization grade problems.

In the designs I've seen thrown around, you end up generating tritium and helium inside the lithium reactor cover/blanket.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pursue it for research purposes, but the desire to research is politically/emotionally driven and not based on the discovery of any recent phenomena.

kumarski··on Cancer Moonshot initiative restarted by NIH
I'm all ears, please produce examples of this that have occurred in the last 15-25 years outside of vaccines.
kumarski··on Cancer Moonshot initiative restarted by NIH
The data suggests that this is a pointless waste of money

“Despite the Herculean effort and enormous expense, only a few drugs for the treatment of cancer were found through NCI’s centrally directed, targeted program. Over a twenty-year period of screening more than 144,000 plant extracts, representing about 15,000 species, not a single plant-based anticancer drug reached approved status. This failure stands in stark contrast to the discovery in the late 1950s of a major group of plant-derived cancer drugs, the Vinca Alcaloids -a discovery that came about by chance, not through directed research.” — Happy Accidents: Serendipity in Modern Medical Breakthroughs.

CRISPR-9 was discovered by accident while trying to understand how bacteria fight the flu. (CRISPR-9 is the acronym for gene editing brouhaha).

Penicillin was discovered via Alexander Fleming’s random mold observation.

Roentgen discovered X-ray tech by accident when he shot electric current through a special gass in a glass tube. Roentgen found out that he’d made a ray that passed through light elements, but interacted with heavy ones; the X-ray.

Vaccines were accidental too. (Edward Jenner — cowpox)

Directed effort seems to be a not-good bet in biotech.

Lesson: Let scientists advanced things in accordance with the invisible hand of scientific discovery and observation as opposed to subsidizing bridges to nowhere. Think more Ioannidis than Kurzweil.*

kumarski··on Amazon and the “profitless business model” fallacy (2013)
I wish every person in silicon valley would read this blog post instead of being in the cult of Bezos worship.

https://deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com/2018/05/amazon-walmartc...

kumarski··on NY Man Pleads Guilty in $20M SIM Swap Theft
Pinged the founder with this. Thank you.
kumarski··on NY Man Pleads Guilty in $20M SIM Swap Theft
This is exactly why I gambled on Efani.
kumarski··on AWS Private 5G
Who said I trust telcos more?

Waveform.com is worth looking at.

kumarski··on AWS Private 5G
I wonder how many CISOs and CTOs trust Amazon.

I'm not sufficiently technical on this front and so I'm probably being a little on the side of paranoia but I don't trust Amazon with my cellular infrastructure.

kumarski··on Vulnerabilities in chips in 37% of smartphones
The time for open source chips is now.

Efabless.com

kumarski··on Single Family Zoning is now banned in California
Only ~700k of the 7M homes are open to lot splitting.

This policy will raise prices faster by squeezing SFH supply and likely only a <30% of the 700k homes will want to have their property tax rates re-assessed.

There are 5M USD homes in California that pay 10k/yr in property taxes.

Nobody wants to abandon their property tax legacy.

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