My take is that after a period of turmoil, most humans will be doing higher level cognitive work than we’re doing now, because all the lower level work will be done by AI agents, and so progress will accelerate multifold.
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My take is that after a period of turmoil, most humans will be doing higher level cognitive work than we’re doing now, because all the lower level work will be done by AI agents, and so progress will accelerate multifold.
If I'm eyeballing the chart right, it seems these companies over-hired by only about 3%.
>Here’s why they say we must remain skeptical about AI hype.
…
22 nations have called for a new global body to oversee AI
They apologize.
And you know when someone deserves the benefit of charitable interpretation?
When they don’t spend their vast influence and wealth to very publicly and globally promote the abhorrent ideology symbolized by that “misinterpreted” gesture.
HN is nothing if not contrarian, which can lead to interesting discussions, but ehhh… this is not the thing to be contrarian about, especially given all the overwhelming evidence out there.
I realize the findings from these studies are tentative; in such a short timeframe such conclusions have to be. But I don't really see much open contention regarding the key question here, which I think is "Has AI had an impact on national level labor statistics?"
E.g. the conclusion you quoted simply says that it is not clear if this is a temporary uptick or a sustained boom. But it agrees that there has been a significant positive impact on labor productivity already, even if the impact on TFP is more modest. Which is what the St. Louis study looking at survey data, and corroborated by various other data sources, finds too.
If the question is whether this is a sustained "productivity boom", I agree that we don't know that yet. But if the question is whether there has been any productivity impact at all, I would say there are multiple indications of that.
> There are dozens of ways to measure code maintainability.
There are no good ways. I'm averse to making absolute statements, but here I'll take that chance. I worked in dev producitivy for years with people who spent decades in that domain across multiple companies with very high volumes of code production. Everybody agreed: All metrics are flawed and even a combination of metrics is insufficient.
Just to give one fundamental reason (in addition to a lot of the sibling comments): for any given metric there are an infinite set of counter-examples that don't trigger any thresholds but are clearly bad code. So these metrics typically only help in trivial cases, don't catch a majority of the cases, and so often become more of an annoyance due to low SNR. A lot of dev productivity work ends up being wiring these metrics in and then providing escape hatches when they inevitably get too noisy!
And most relevant to this discussion: these tools do not say anything about higher-level concerns like architecture, over-engineering and design, which IME is where agents tend to mess up most. I've almost never had a complaint about the code itself; the logic, naming, functions, data structures, even a lot of the testing, are all on point. It's always been the higher-level structure and design: over-engineering, duplicate classes, suboptimal abstractions, redundant operations across layers that could be solved by adding a single variable in a class, etc. etc.
I think the problem, like with code written by humans, is lack of sufficient context while doing a task leading to tunnel-vision. This is why we need to oversee and ensure things are good holistically. I suspect models are now good enough to play the role of an architect as well, though, and I've read some indications of that online... I just haven't tried giving them that much control yet.
Well, I do suppose the probability of that is non-zero... ;-)
That's partly because we are discussing productivity growth. Today's productivity growth is on top of the substantial productivity improvements that have been compounding due to past booms like the Computer and Internet one. So in relative terms the growth looks modest, but in absolute terms this is substantial.
Also that BLS chart is a bit unhelpful because it shows time periods covering multiple years and does not isolate the years after ChatGPT launched, which is what the St. Lous Fed looks at and finds interesting indications. Like currently productivity growth is 1.3 percentage points above what was forecasted just before ChatGPT was released. This discrepancy is not fully explained by other factors and lines up with other data sources related to the effects of AI.
The letter you linked is relevant, but it is trying to make a much broader point than I am. Note that:
1) it's asking whether we have entered a "high-growth regime" meaning a period of sustained productivity growth, and itself points out that it necessarily requires years to play out; and
2) its point of reference is the 90s when the computer revolution had truly kicked in after almost two decades of adoption starting in the mid/late-80's, during which any impact was famously hard to find: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
So what is astounding is that the effects of the AI revolution may be visible in national-level economics data after only 2 - 4 years since the technology was introduced, and we're already wondering if we have shifted into a "high productivity growth era"!
But my point is the wider Mathematics community didn't do that either. We are just looking at the subset in TFA and assuming they represent the whole community. If you look at AI + Math-related articles and threads on HN you'll definitely see a lot of consternation from Mathematicians.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-gen...
This is just ~2 - 4 years after ChatGPT launched, and despite very shallow adoption (only ~6% of all work hours.) As a sibling comment indicates, it took almost 2 decades for the Computer Revolution to be visible in national level statistics.
Also note this study was originally published in 2024, then revised in 2025, but this preliminary evidence has been around for a while, if people wanted to find it. It's even been posted to HN a couple of times, somehow it just doesn't get the attention you'd think it should get, even if it was just to poke holes in the conclusions.
It simply is not economical to pay that much higher wages given the low prices people want to pay for produce, and they waste anywhere from 30% to a full years' worth of crops. Forget "preserving margins," they typically straight up take a huge financial loss on their investments up to that point.
So really, it's not just a simplistic choice between cheap immigrant labor or expensive native labor, it is also about farmers actually having a viable business, and everyone getting affordable produce -- very often, including people who really need that food: https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2019/10/california-...
I don't know what the actual economics are, but it's very conceivable that, after considering all the people involved, it is better for cheap immigrant workers to undercut expensive native workers as long as the majority of people get more affordable food and farmers can keep their businesses going.
This group of Mathematicians just happens to be more willing to accept the inevitable and adapt. I would actually say software engineers, being amongst the earliest impacted by AI after creatives, clearly have adapted to the new reality much more broadly as evidenced by online discourse and coding agent providers' skyrocketing revenues.
> Following an investigation, we have confirmed that Buckmaster’s Codex prompts over the two months preceding this announcement and paper on September 8, 2026, could not have influenced the system in any way, including through training.
And clearly, if they really have solved 100s of other open problems since then, it is only more reason to believe that statement.
https://www.fbk.eu/en/press-releases/artificial-intelligence...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-61345-5
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.09662
Coding of course is something I know well and it obviously works very well for me there, but computer vision was not, and it has helped me solve lots of useful, bespoke problems because I can very literally "see" if it works.
However, it has even helped me solve problems in arbitrary matters far outside my expertise. Choice example: a complicated multi-airline, multi-jurisdiction flight delay compensation case which companies like AirHelp turned away, and ChatGPT got me literally hundreds of dollars that neither airline was willing to hand out. It told me what to say to whom and why, and when I said it, the responsible airline capitulated.
What could be more convincing than cold, hard $$$?
The trick of course, is to figure out how to validate the output of the AI, which can take some effort on our part. But many would rather downplay the technology than take an honest crack at making it work for them, and I suspect it's because they're already prejudiced against it or their incentives are otherwise not aligned.
I would partially disagree with this assertion (immigrants are clearly very constrained in their job mobility, and their wages are correspondingly suppressed) but what TFA and other similar studies and history show, it's not like wages increase for native employees with lower immigration. Typically what happens is that there just aren't enough people to do the work, and so the work just doesn't get done, which is why businesses just don't grow.
Sometimes the economics just don't work out. Relevant berry-related example, California farmers often have had to let entire years' worth of strawberries rot in the field when they could not find enough farmhands to pick them. And they did try raising wages and perks: https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/california-farmers-have-ra...
But sometimes even with the right economics there just are not enough workers. TFA gels with my experience working in Tech in the US for almost 2 decades, conducting countless interviews for positions that I know paid very well, and just not finding enough qualified candidates regardless of visa status, which constantly put significant constraints on our roadmaps.
So maybe evidence does help, but what detracts from its effectiveness is how it is presented. Like we see every day on various public forums including this one, arguments are made in a rather heated manner, which are probably not conducive to making the other side more receptive to ideas. I'm not sure if this might be the confounding in these previous studies.
LLMs have the advantage of infinite patience and RLHF'd dispassionate mannerisms and the presumption of no vested interests. But that also means your friend could be technically right.
But as some sibling comments indicate they already had a lot of the software infra for distributed computing the way it eventually came to be done today, with SOA/microservices, service discovery, or serverless lambdas etc. via frameworks like EJB or JXTA. They were admittedly pretty cumbersome, like the contemporary equivalents COM/DCOM, and made the fundamental mistake of trying to abstract away the fallacies of distributed computing, but also solved most of the common problems involved.
Potentially they could have pivoted to monetizing that software infra even if it got deployed on arbitrary hardware, which may have tided them over until they could spin up their own cloud service, even if it was a fast follow to AWS. However Sun seemed committed to making their expensive servers their primary business model and relegated the software to “loss leader” complements.
If they had just looked at how services were being developed on Linux + commodity servers, they’d have seen they already had offerings in that space that could be monetized.
One thing that struck me from Dario's last podcast with Dwarkesh was that he said training LLMs on a diverse set of tasks does not make them better just at those tasks, but they get better at unrelated and other tasks overall. What you described could be a concrete example of how that dynamic works!
But to me that is analogous to what human brains do, and a bit different from intuition. I think of intuition as “heuristics”, typically developed through experience, that may link seemingly unrelated concepts via vague, hard-to-define associations, but which let us make mental leaps (or shortcuts) while reasoning. (Maybe analogous to System 1 / 2 thinking.)
On the other hand, LLMs can do both: build “intuition” from patterns in data AND brute force a huge amount of potentially unrelated concepts. This gets fuzzier when we realize that even these “concepts” themselves are gleaned from patterns in data! But my point is we necessarily have to take shortcuts to scale, whereas machines can scale with hardware.
This is of course a layman theory! But it could explain why these models are progressing so fast.
Consider that any other laws you may want in place could be even worse, and what we have with AI is the logical culmination of technology and the laws we as a society have established over centuries of dealing with hairy issues based on sound principles:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49761887
Tl;dr: AI has harvested that which we as a society have very explicitly decided should belong to the commons.
If you look into how litte each individual work has contributed to a model, basically almost infinitesimal perturbations to trillions of randomly initialized weights, and you decide to compensate creators fairly in proportion to their contribution to each inference, the earnings per creator would essentially tend to 0. Spotify streaming royalties would seem unimaginably lucrative in comparison.
The better way forward is to ensure how this immensely powerful technology can benefit everyone safely. New forms of compensation will need to be evolved, for sure. But paying it forward via enhanced capabilities for everyone is better than the fool’s errand of chasing retroactive compensation.