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keating

245 karma · joined April 6, 2008

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keating··on Advice to the Bright and Young
The irony of being a prodigy is that it is indeed a facade, because it's not that the achievements are new, just that the achiever is.

This is why it feels empty. Because although you did something a few years earlier than other people, lots and lots of other people already did it, are doing it, and will be doing it soon.

The rat race is one of relative achievement. One can pile on all the plaudits and laurels in the world and it still comes down to jumping through other people's hoops for approval.

The only thing that doesn't feel fake is absolute achievement -- when you do something new, regardless of age, and regardless of media coverage or getting puppy snacks from the outstretched palms of condescending adults.

keating··on Advice to the Bright and Young
Alas that our minds learn by trial and error and not taking advice. In fact, the brightest people tend to be the ones who have a driving need to find out for themselves and not listen to what other people say about it.
keating··on Beating Google?
"Would the top 1k most visited sites take a cool $1mm each, plus a committment from MicroSoft or Yahoo to drive traffic through their search engines to more than make up for the lost Google Traffic. After all, once consumers realized that Google no longer had valid search results for the top 25k searchs, that traffic would most likely go to MicroSoft and Yahoo."
keating··on 10-Year-Old Scholar Takes California College By Storm
The downmodding is for conflating grades with "deservedness" re: interning at your startup.

First, if someone does the work, they should get the pay/equity, regardless of age.

I say forget grades and jumping through other people's hoops. If he wants to do it, he will do it for its own sake.

Second, I'd let the poor kid hang out at my startup just to get away from his parents and structure. He can play with action figures or something. Of course maybe he's perfectly happy where he is, but if not, it would be nice to have someplace to go where the adults just leave you alone. A lot of us can relate to his situation.

keating··on 10-Year-Old Scholar Takes California College By Storm
Over. Scheduled.

On the flip side I think we should front-load education because kids hardly learn anything from jr. high onward, thanks to the hormone fairy. There are a few exceptions, of course.

keating··on Another YC Clone - Dream IT Ventures
Strange they haven't heard of antialiasing.

And they're using ASP?

I guess it's pretty clear that whatever advice they are giving you, it's not going to be technical; and that's underscored by their "guru"/speaker list of management types instead of programmers.

keating··on Google's headcount soars 57% to 19,000
Good golly, that sounds like a lot more Angel money will soon be flittering about Mountain View and Seattle.
keating··on Homeowner vs. Renter: Why Should You Ever Buy a House (at all)?
> The point is, what's going to happen under likely circumstances?

In high-demand areas, it's likely housing prices will see another bubble.

> it's not guaranteed that your home is going to double in value in five years.

We're all in agreement on that.

The point I was making is that real estate bubbles recur and so there's always the possibility of a large, rapid gain, which doesn't happen with mutual funds (correct me if I'm wrong there).

> In fact, in some parts of the country, there's a real chance that your home will be worth 50% less in five years' time.

The article specifically stipulates a "great" area. So we're not talking about parts of the country that aren't in demand. :)

keating··on Why Can't Twitter Scale? Blaine Cook Tries To Explain
I concur. I see all these startups where I know I can do much better on the technical side, but I'm just not enthusiastic enough about the subject matter to actually put the time in to do it.

It seems like a lot of these start-ups are the founders' first tries at something big, so they make a lot of mistakes; but since it's new and exciting to them, motivation wins out and they actually accomplish something.

I really admire their enthusiasm and stick-to-it-iveness.

keating··on Homeowner vs. Renter: Why Should You Ever Buy a House (at all)?
> For instance, there's no guarantee a 400k house in Sacramento will be worth 800k in five years

Sure, but based on historical events with housing in "great" areas, this can and does happen. If you buy right before a bubble, it can even happen sooner -- in a couple years. A 6% fund is not going to even have the chance to do that.

> In markets with a lot of excess inventory, some landlords can't find tenants.

A given, per the article, is a "great" area. Great areas are always in demand. I have not yet lived in an area that lacked for tenants.

keating··on Homeowner vs. Renter: Why Should You Ever Buy a House (at all)?
Some items the article is glossing over:

First, the rental value doesn't take into account inflation. House payments are fixed, which means it gets effectively cheaper every year. Meanwhile, rents keep increasing. This means that while you can catch a house at the bottom of a bubble and lock in the price, if you rent in that same area, you'll find rents going way up when the housing bubble rises again.

Next, an 800 sq. ft. apartment isn't equivalent to a 1000 sq. ft. house with a yard. If you really want to cheap out on a house, get a mobile home -- though of course that doesn't include land, which is often leased.

Further, in this example, it assumes you have the difference between the two prices free and clear to invest -- you'll certainly need to make sure your investments do well, because at the end of 30 years, you aren't going to be a homeowner, and will still need a place to live.

Not to mention, pets are typically a problem; you're at the mercy of your landlord; the rent can be increased at any time; you have to deal with shared walls with neighbors; and your 6% return is not going to seem very exciting in 5 years when housing picks up again and that $400k house is worth $800k. It WILL pick up -- the country isn't becoming LESS crowded.

Your monthly investment amount will decrease every year as your rent gets increased, meaning your return is not going to be as good as depicted, especially if wages stagnate (as they effectively have in many sectors for the last 8 years). At 5% rent increase per year, you'll eventually be paying around $4000 for that same apartment in 30 years. Around year 20 the apartment costs more per month than the house. (This is a great area, remember, so the demand will be high. In some areas the rent can jump by 20% in a year instead of 5%.) This would mean you'd do significantly worse than if you bought the house.

The basic premise of this article is really "what if you live cheaply and invest your money vs. what if you spend all your money on housing and your house appreciates more slowly than an index fund".

Step 1. Live in your parents' basement for 30 (more) years.

Step 2. Invest the WHOLE $2400 per month on an index fund.

Step 3. Profit!

As you can see, the article ignores things about having your own house that are nice -- like a stable place for people to visit since you don't move every few years to cheaper places; not being at the mercy of parents or landlords; having a yard; not having to obey "quiet hours", and so forth.

keating··on I can't believe someone built "A pure JavaScript video player"
I actually did this in 1997 IIRC. I tried using an animated GIF but it was too dithered and grainy, so I switched to JS and showing JPEG frames with a timeout so I could get 24-bit color instead of 8-bit.
keating··on IBM's 5.0GHz Power6 processor
Unfortunately the limit is going to be in the chipsets for that DDR2-667 RAM. PC2 5300 -- that is not a wide bus, 5.3 GB/s. That's the bottleneck.
keating··on Sincere Apologies to Paul Graham and the Y Combinator Team (from the Seattle Founder's Co-op)
It kind of reminds me of a salary history where a company wants to pay you according to how other companies value you, instead of making their own determination.

It's like they don't know what to ask, so they went with what you came up with. Well, if they can't figure out what information they need on their own, how are they going to figure out who to invest in on their own?

keating··on Poll: Unknown or expired link on YC
With the load going up so much (causing the crashes) it also means the links expire faster. I would guess in under 10 minutes sometimes, maybe under 5.
keating··on IBM's 5.0GHz Power6 processor
The theoretical processor bandwidth is one thing; the actual throughput on motherboards with existing slow memory chips (DDR2-667 according to the specs page) is quite a different matter.

This becomes a pretty big deal when you have that many cores all hammering on it at once. Divide by 32...

keating··on IBM's 5.0GHz Power6 processor
This is kind of pointless without commensurate memory bandwidth. Those CPUs are just going to be waiting around doing nothing.
keating··on In-vitro hamburger? "We have the technology."
The trick is what to grow it on. Previous lab meat experiments used fetal calf serum.

Engineering meat directly on a large scale is probably going to happen before a significant percentage of people ethically convert to animal-free lifestyles. It would make a huge difference in human-perpetrated cruelty, as the U.S. currently slaughters 10 billion land animals and around 15 billion aquatic animals (not counting by-catch) every year.

However, general consensus among farm animal rescues/sanctuaries is that egg and milk operations are the cruellest, moreso than beef. Thus, contrary to popular belief, eating steak while avoiding milk and eggs puts more of a dent into animal cruelty than becoming an ovo-lacto vegetarian.

Another common misconception is that fish is healthy; due to environmental pollution, however, fish now frequently contains unsafe levels of mercury and other heavy metals; plus DDT, dioxin, PCBs, etc. This is due to concentration as you go up the food chain, where the fish that humans eat have several orders of magnitude more contaminants than the water they swim in.

DHA and EPA, the Omega-3 fatty acids that are present in certain types of fish oil, are also now available in oil from marine algae. E.g. http://www.water4.net/ (this brand has no discernible taste, unlike some others). Brain food is probably a good idea for hackers.

keating··on Ask YC: Has anyone switched from OS X to Ubuntu?
I wouldn't call wanting to be able to get at your own data a "political" reason.
keating··on Ask YC: Has anyone switched from OS X to Ubuntu?
Mark Pilgrim (of Dive Into Python fame):

http://diveintomark.org/archives/2006/06/02/when-the-bough-b...

http://diveintomark.org/archives/2006/06/26/essentials-2006

Cory Doctorow (of Mac tattoo on bicep fame):

http://www.boingboing.net/2006/06/29/mark-pilgrims-list-o.ht...

keating··on The boring truth about why groups don't get invited to interviews
Next: To get into that YC clone in India. You know, the one with armed guards that make sure you don't leave your cubicle before midnight. (Shamelessly copied from the real YC.)
keating··on The boring truth about why groups don't get invited to interviews
Except the article states many "pretty good" groups were pushed out by "stellar" ones. That certainly indicates something can be improved, in the opinion of YC.

Important distinction between "nothing wrong" (below threshold) and "nothing to improve" (at max score).

When I see some of the groups that have made the cut from past cycles, I'm boggled as to what YC was sold on.

keating··on Today's college students have tuned out the world, and it's partly our fault
> keeping up with current events is wrong. Don't try to keep up.

To the contrary, keeping up with events online gives you the ability to be proactive about acquiring knowledge, rather than waiting for what makes it though the filter of a periodical or what someone else thinks important; not to mention the bias of opinion pieces. If your periodical of choice sits on a story, or misreports, you will likely never find out about it if you don't pay attention to outside sources (e.g. the NYT sat on their report about the administration's illegal domestic spying/warrantless wiretapping program until after the 2004 election).

keating··on Excellent Commencement Speech by Bill Gates
You can reduce inequality by bringing one group up, or the other group down.

Star Wars chose option B to bring balance to the force. Goodbye Jedi.

keating··on The boring truth about why groups don't get invited to interviews
> and some were just a rung above you

That's not necessarily the case. For some proposals, "[we] didn't understand the problem domain well enough to judge them". Or didn't have the time to look at stuff you've done; or your demo. Or they liked enough other proposals already that they didn't feel the need to look at your demo. The "stellar" ones were ones that "seemed better" in the opinion of the reviewers. As noted, "this process is fraught with error".

keating··on Ask YC: what could be done better - next time
> because them having written no code

I'm curious as to how it was determined they were one of the best when they hadn't written anything yet. It seems a lot of proposals with code and demos got declined (not even looked at in some cases) but in this case a proposal with no code, which has essentially already been funded and done by your group... gets an invite?

keating··on Ask YC: Finding a Co-Founder
> "the only common factor in all your failed relationships is you"

Yeah but that goes for everyone else too! And when you look at most of the people you have known for any length of time...

keating··on Tell YC: Summer 08 decisions out
> If it doesn't sound compelling enough after the first sentence then you probably need to work on your pitch.

How compelling do these sound...

"Search engine" (Google)

"Computer languages" (MS)

"Directory of stuff on the web" (Yahoo)

"Online store builder" (ViaWeb)

"Computers for ordinary people" (Apple)

"Online photo album" (Flickr)

"Rate pictures of people you don't know" (HotOrNot)

"Blogging" (Blogger)

In many cases... "yet another X". Difference being in execution...

keating··on Ask YC: To my fellow YC Summer Applicants who slipped through the cracks, what is your next move?
> I don't have to worry about moving to Boston. I really dig SF =)

If you're already there then you're pretty well off and with some networking your chances are good. The Boston groups move to SV afterward anyway because the investors there move quicker and are less risk-averse.

keating··on Tell YC: Summer 08 decisions out
Anybots is Trevor Blackwell's company.

Wild guess: the parsing barfed at the hyphen in name@la-fem.com and sent it to name@la -- and the email system will fill in the local domain name if you don't use a FQDN. They sent it through anybots.com's mail system so it got filled in as la.anybots.com

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