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karmacondon

1,383 karma · joined October 12, 2014

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karmacondon··on Show HN: HEY – One Word Messenger
Wish there was a way to see what this is without downloading it. Screen shots at least?
karmacondon··on G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
I don't want to derail this thread due to a passing mention of Edison's name, but.

Edison's major inventions represented a difference in kind, not in degree, that drastically changed things for humanity. Think of how different life is as the result of recorded sound, the concept of an electric company or light bulbs for home use.

Job's products were often well designed incremental changes. Apple made computers consumer friendly, but they didn't invent the technology. They didn't invent the global telecommunications network that makes the iPhone useful either.

Edison was an Inventor with a capital I. Jobs was a truly great corporate executive.

karmacondon··on Mark Zuckerberg's 2016 personal challenge
I love how this post perfectly encapsulates the concept of facebook: Someone with a very comfortable life humble bragging about how he's going to use technology to solve first world problems.

It is a cool idea and an interesting project, and publically declaring it will probably help to motivate some people to take on projects of their own. But I do get the feeling that he could be aiming a little higher. With great power comes great responsibility and all that. The alluded to Iron Man was a billionaire who used technology to fight gods and monsters. Zuckerberg is...tinkering with the internet of things? Can't tell someone else how to live their life, but I would have expected him to make public announcements about the Big Problems and leave projects like this for cocktail party conversation.

karmacondon··on Economic Inequality
The hell are you talking about? The argument could easily be made that AirBnB exists because of the efforts of the YCombinator team. It's not like Paul Graham is personally just sitting back and collecting money. He works hard to advise and provide seed capital to hundreds of startups at year, at a stage when their success is far from guaranteed.

For whatever you think about his views on income inequality, it's difficult to make the case that he's rent seeking.

karmacondon··on Why 2015 Was a Breakthrough Year in Artificial Intelligence
Care to give any examples of those upcoming booms?
karmacondon··on The A.I. Anxiety
Geez, appeal to authority much? Play the ball, not the man.
karmacondon··on The A.I. Anxiety
Arg, the Paperclip Argument doesn't make sense. If an AI is intelligent enough to plan, set short term and long term goals and come up with creative solutions to problems, then it would have to be capable of understanding instructions in context. If it isn't smart enough to see that "don't turn humans into paperclips" is part of the context of "make more paperclips", then it won't be intelligent enough to turn all the matter in the universe into paperclips anyway.

This idea, and many of Bostrom's other scenarios, boil down to "computers take everything literally", which is a rather cartoonish understanding of the concept of intelligence. It's possible that ASI will be programmed to have a hyperliteral view of all instructions, or will not be able to change its own utility function. But that seems like such a remote possibility, the exception rather than the rule. While superintelligent computers may pose many dangers, blindly executing instructions doesn't seem like the highest priority of them.

karmacondon··on Animals think, therefore...
Many animals would happily eat us. So if animals can think, does that mean that they've made a conscious decision to eat other animals? And if so, why are we wrong for making that some decision?
karmacondon··on How bad are things?
It seems like you and many other people are of the world view that everyone would behave ideally if only corporate forces weren't influencing them. This may be true, there's no way to know for sure.

It's also possible that most major corporations meet the demands of the market rather than create those demands. Art imitates life. The thing about brand advertising, like for Coca-Cola, is that its done mainly for commoditized products that consumers already want. People already want a cold soda on a hot day. The question is will they reach for a coke or a pepsi? A Big Mac or a Whopper? A dell or a macbook? It's not like none of those things would exist if evil corporations didn't make us want them. The cat is out of the bag now, people already want sodas and fast food. The global advertising empire is primarily fueled by getting people to choose company's product over another, not intentionally making you want things you can't afford.

We cant blame society's ills on corporations, capitalism or any other system of behavior. All of these things are democratic, they reflect the will of the people. And human beings have been making themselves feel bad due to envy and desire for as long as there have been human beings. I would advocate for banning all advertising forever if I thought it would change things. But it won't.

karmacondon··on Ask HN: What are your predictions in technology for 2016?
Because it still isn't cost effective. A drone that can be guided, either autonomously or by a human, will cost at least, what, $80 wholesale? That will almost equal the price of the ordinance. Causing a lot of casualties at a low cost is one of the major appeals of field artillery and explosives.

Now, maybe it would make more sense for the assassination of carefully guarded targets. But it will probably be a few more years before that technology is more reliable than strapping a vest containing c4 on someone.

karmacondon··on Techno-skeptics’ objection growing louder
Both democracy and capitalism say that the "general masses" get to decide who wins and who loses, for better or worse. I understand the nature of your lament, but the only solution is various forms of autocracy. Communist governments love telling people what's best for them. Likewise with dictators. If you let the people themselves decide, the overwhelming majority of them will chose whatever is most inexpensive and convenient. Period.

The truly heroic will find ways to make what's "best" also the cheapest and easiest solution. But who wants to undertake that herculean task without being very well compensated for their effort? And there's the rub.

karmacondon··on Techno-skeptics’ objection growing louder
Public radio is government supported, not government run. Meaning, most public radio stations get less than 5% of their annual funding from the government. The rest comes from listener donations and pledge drives, not advertisers, which is pretty much the opposite of what you're suggesting. This is also how Wikipedia works, minus the small percentage of government funding. Not sure if say, Facebook, could operate in the same way, mostly due to hardware scaling and liability issues, but it's possible.
karmacondon··on You are your phone
is it ethical to create involuntary behaviours in your users?

Yes. Coke, McDonalds, The Gap and every other consumer company try like hell to create involuntary behaviors in people all the time.

is it ethical to judge users for behaviours deliberately created in them by applications?

Yes. Other than the specificity of the words "by applications", this is what credit scores are designed to do. Madison Avenue in deliberately trying to create behaviors in all of us. A credit rating measures a person's ability to resist that when it isn't financially sound.

should the attention of users be better protected?

No, at least not for adults of sound mind. People are free to make their own decisions, whether that's doing a keg stand or spending 3 hours clicking a button on Farmville. People can be warned about potential dangers, but it probably won't have much of an effect.

can we start developing consumer applications that aren't deliberately designed to capitalise on the attention of their users?

Yes. Or at least, you and anyone else who wants to can. But making products that people use frequently is a common definition of success. Most comapnies aren't going to pass that up because some people have addictive personalities.

how can we educate people to navigate a world of applications designed to hold and capitalise on their attention?

Good luck with that. Education vs the Forces of Capitalism. Winner: Capitalism.

karmacondon··on Holiday Gift Ideas from Y Combinator
This is a great idea, but it seems like it would be more effective if there were fewer items listed. It took me quite a bit of effort to go through the list from top to bottom.

An unsolicited suggestion: Maybe it would be best to have to "Buy From YC Companies" page or something like that, and then just select 6-8 of them on a separate "for the holidays" page. At least that way an everyday consumer could quickly scan the list without having to read 20+ startup descriptions (which can be tiring, even for the hn crowd).

Personally, I thought it was worth the read. I had no idea that many of these companies were YC backed, or that some of them existed at all.

karmacondon··on What You Believe Affects What You Achieve
Love this idea, but I do not recommend the book. It's clearly a science article that has been stretched into 250 pages. Same idea, repeated repeated repeated.

I highly recommend a summary, unless you think you'll benefit from reading twenty examples of the same concept. It's one of the few books that I started but didn't finish this year.

karmacondon··on Diagnosing Yahoo’s Ills: Ugly Math in Marissa Mayer’s Reign
The media's Mayer pile on is getting old. Every article is focused on her personally, as opposed to the company as a whole. I understand how echo chamber effects and memes work, but this seems a bit extreme even for the internet.

It's like blaming someone who dropped a last second touchdown pass for losing the game. Yes, it would have been nice if that player could have done a better job. But it would also have been nice if everyone else on the team hadn't made any mistakes either, making a last second play unnecessary.

She was very well compensated for failing, but that doesn't mean that she acted in bad faith. Many executives have compensation packages that are heavily based on performance. Apparently hers wasn't. Ultimately there is a lot of blame to go around for the demise of Yahoo!, not the least to other half dozen CEOs they've had in the last decade or so. You win the fight today based on the preparations and positioning you did years ago. For all her mistakes, that's not on Mayer.

karmacondon··on The Sad State of Personal Knowledgebases
There are simple rules, like "Don't show the same bookmark again within X months", where X becomes progressively longer the more times the bookmark has been shown. I can also flag the best stuff so it shows up more often.

I did my best to group the text of the urls, using first kmeans in php (which is a very stupid idea) and finally settling on LDA. I'd like to use hierarchical LDA to automatically discover topics within my bookmarks, but that's "Future Work" for now.

karmacondon··on The Sad State of Personal Knowledgebases
I've been working with own "PK" for about a year now. It's been an interesting experiment so far. My concept is based around random re-exposure to information. For whatever reason, the thought of "Let me look through my old bookmarks" never occurred to me and wasn't part of my daily workflow. So one aspect of my system is that it randomly selects bookmarks from different categories every day and shows them to me. It also has spaced repetition for facts and miscellany, or things I'm trying to learn about (like the US Presidents or Shakespeares plays), vocabulary, etc.

There were a few interesting things I've noticed by randomly viewing old bookmarks. The first is that linkrot is a very real thing and the web is decaying at a measurable rate. Second, it's amazing how limited my memory is. Half the time I don't remember something I bookmarked from years or even months ago at all. It's new to me, all over again. I'm going to bookmark this discussion and then completely forget it existed within a few months at most. Regularly reviewing old web pages and notes makes me feel like my mind is a sieve, as well as highlighting how my interest and thought processes have changed over the years.

I'm really interested in this topic, feel free to contact me to discuss.

karmacondon··on Baidu says it's developed China's first fully autonomous self-driving car
I understand your argument, but I see two other possibilities:

1) Drivers remain liable for actions taken by their car's AI. This would encourage people to only use truly driverless AI in the safest possible conditions, ie not on crowded streets or when its raining. This will let market forces balance the technological development of the cars with public adoption

2) After initial legal precedents for damages are set, some companies will make enough money to insure a large fleet of autonomous vehicles. And again, market forces will be able to pace the tradeoff between how "safe" the AI technology is vs how quickly its adopted.

tldr; an authoritarian government isn't necessary to push this particular technology forward. As much as I hate to say it, the Free Market will do just fine in this case

karmacondon··on Introducing OpenAI
As I've said many times on HN over the years, there is currently no clear path to science fiction like "AI". To return your question, hopefully without being rude, is there any proof that AI capable of having a moral disposition will ever exist?

Andrew Ng (I believe) compared worrying about evil AI to worrying about overpopulation on Mars. Which is to say, the problem is so far off that it's rather silly to be considering it now. I would take it a step further and say that worrying about the implications of AGI is like thinking about Earth being overpopulated by space aliens. First we have to establish that such a thing is even possible, for which there is currently no concrete proof. Then we should start to think about how to deal with it.

Considering how hypothetical technology will impact mankind is literally the definition of science fiction. It makes for interesting reading, but it's far from a call to action.

karmacondon··on How Elon Musk and Y Combinator Plan to Stop Computers from Taking Over
I've yet to see any evidence that human-like intelligence and computation speed are related in any way. There's a lot more to general intelligence than how fast numbers can be multiplied together.
karmacondon··on Introducing OpenAI
This is a key takeaway: "...we are going to ask YC companies to make whatever data they are comfortable making available to OpenAI. And Elon is also going to figure out what data Tesla and Space X can share."

Money is great, openness is great, big name researchers are also a huge plus. But data data data, that could turn out to be very valuable. I don't know if Sam meant that YC companies would be encouraged to contribute data openly, as in making potentially valuable business assets available to the public, or that the data would be available to the OpenAI Fellows (or whatever they're called). Either way, it could be a huge gain for research and development.

I know that I don't get a wish list here, but if I did it would be nice to see OpenAI encourage the following from its researchers:

1) All publications should include code and data whenever possible. Things like gitxiv are helping, but this is far from being an AI community standard

2) Encourage people to try to surpass benchmarks established by their published research, when possible. Many modern ML papers play with results and parameters until they can show that their new method out performs every other method. It would be great to see an institution say "Here's the best our method can do on dataset X, can you beat it and how?"

3) Sponsor competitions frequently. The Netflix Prize was a huge learning experience for a lot of people, and continues to be a valuable educational resource. We need more of that

4) Try to encourage a diversity of backgrounds. IF they choose to sponsor competitions, it would be cool if they let winners or those who performed well join OpenAI as researchers at least for awhile, even if they don't have PhDs in computer science

The "evil" AI and safety stuff is just science fiction, but whatever. Hopefully they will be able to use their resources and position to move the state of AI forward

karmacondon··on New Style of Police Training Aims to Produce Guardians, Not Warriors
With this attitude, no one will want to be a police officer. Or at least, no one who has any other reasonable options. That means when someone has to call 911, either no one will show up or the person who shows up won't be the highest caliber individual.

It sounds like you expect everyone who becomes a police officer to be willing to dive in front of a bullet like Kevin Costner in The Bodyguard. There are noble and heroic people who are willing to do this, but they are few and far between. Most of police work is routine and boring: mediating domestic disputes, filing paperwork, processing evidence, etc. We need people to do all of those things without having to be willing to sacrifice their lives for strangers.

karmacondon··on Most violence in the world is motivated by moral sentiments
I feel like you missed the point of the article. While the world agrees that killing, or generally being a jerk is bad, we are hopelessly divided on the issues like the death penalty, honor killing of rape victims, applying the death penalty to the mentally disabled, use of drones in armed conflicts, etc.

As the grandparent comment pointed out, there is no objective source of morality on any issue. As the OP pointed out, most people don't loudly proclaim themselves to be jerks. Outside of sociopaths and those with mental disorders, most people lie, kill and hate because they think it's somehow the right thing to do. Or because they can rationalize acting in their own self interest to be somehow fair or in the greater good.

Though the article tried to end on a positive tone, I found it to be pretty disheartening. It's easy to say "Don't be hateful", but much more difficult to say "Don't do what you think is right". Ain't no solution for that.

karmacondon··on Social media encourages us to follow those we envy
Mark Zuckerberg didn't invent social networking. If it wasn't facebook, it would be some other website. Social media doesn't cause people to envy others or engage in behaviors that you don't approve of. Human nature does. The problem here lies in the collective mirror.

I've seen no evidence that Mark Zuckerberg is anything other than a normal ivy league type guy. I'm sure that he hears dozens of positive things about facebook every single day - it helped someone meet their spouse, connect with old friends, solve a problem. It's likely that in his view he's doing something to make the world a better place. Some may focus more on the negative aspects of facebook, and that's fair. But there doesn't seem to be any reason to question his character.

karmacondon··on Who Y Combinator Companies Want
If you're a top ten percent programmer who charges $137/hr then this whole discussion probably isn't oriented at you. By definition, most programmers are not in the top ten percent. They make money by sitting down and writing code, not by projecting confidence and machismo. So why shouldn't they prove their abilities and evaluate the company and it's general environment by sitting down and actually coding?

I'm very old and out of the loop, I have no idea what modern work-sample tests look like. I remember when I did one many years ago it was to the effect of "Write a script that checks to see if a URL returns a valid response code, and trigger an event if it does not". My prospective employer liked my coding style and I got hired. What was so wrong about that?

As I recall, they intended to modify the script and use it in production whether they hired me or not. I also don't care about that. It took less than an hour, and it seemed like a valid form of evaluation. Maybe it's a pride thing, but I had no problem with it and I think a lot of other people would have been ok with that practice as well.

karmacondon··on Who Y Combinator Companies Want
It seems like you're being forced into a false dichotomy of being either completely for work trials or completely against them, and that's unfair.

But if your biggest objection is that it will take additional time, that depends entirely on the nature of the trial. I was given a work trial at my first job and it took about 40 minutes. It didn't go as smoothly as I'd hoped, but I would much much rather have done that than spent 40 minutes answering brain teasers in front of a white board.

If I'm already taking a day off, I don't care if the interview lasts three hours or five. I'd rather work on a collaborative task with my potential teammates to see if it's going to be worth radically altering my life to take a new job. I understand that there are many programmers who are opposed to work trials, and they can say "I'm opposed to work trials and would rather demonstrate my abilities in another way."

It seems like your research so far has been very comprehensive, why dismiss an effective technique because some people are opposed to it?

karmacondon··on Who Y Combinator Companies Want
When it comes to hiring, I think that the team is more important than the individual. As the beginning of the piece stated, it's not so much about individual characteristics as it is culture/process fit. I think the main takeaway for applicants is not to take interview rejection personally. Even if you do everything "right", you still might not be what they're looking for.

Ultimately, I don't think that individual programming ability matters that much. It's extremely rare for the technical talents of one person to turn a company around. Some people can inspire others and turn dysfunctional groups into great teams, and there's never enough of that. But said great teams are ephemeral, like sports dynasties. All a company can do is try to avoid toxic employees and hope that the magic happens.

karmacondon··on A scientist studying the accuracy of stereotypes
You're right. I think the problem is that white people are bad. Now it will be easier to solve the problem, and white people will benefit from this knowledge.
karmacondon··on French Uber drivers have created their own Uber
I was in complete agreement with you until the last sentence. "An Uber we don't like" probably won't happen because if people don't like a service, they won't use it. An unpopular business can rarely force itself on customers.

And it seems that the same is true of Uber itself. It's possible that the existing laws and regulations aren't necessary. People seem to be able to conduct themselves properly without being licensed and bonded. I consistently hear more good things than bad things about Uber, and all of my personal experiences have been positive. Whatever they're doing, it's working.

The same might not be true for an electrician or a massage therapist. As much as I hate to say it (deep breath), the Free Market seems to be sorting this out just fine. I'm not going full libertarian and suggesting we conduct social experiments with the FDA or the fire department. But in some cases, maybe the best way to figure out which regulations are really necessary is to ignore them and see what happens.

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