jpadkins

I find this site useful https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models

That is the beauty of the Resolution part of prediction markets. If evil DDT Corp bets money to skew the market, then they lose even more money on the Resolution (assuming the resolution is deterministic of harm and has not been manipulated).

who uses SAT scores as "potential succeed"??

Nice try to make a law sound moral.

The other question you could be asking: Why does Google want to keep this secret for a period of time?

yes it is good in many scenarios.

Imagine bad (incorrect and potentially harmful) information is public knowledge. Examples are "X cures cancer" or "Is Y dangerous to consume".

A prediction market will be seeded by public knowledge (of course it cures cancer or its safe to consume), which you describe "suckers". History is filled with many examples of bad public knowledge that turned out to be false (e.g. DDT is safe pesticide).

An insider (someone who knows the drug trial results, or works at the Corp creating the harmful substance) is incentivized to trade on that knowledge, which creates a better informed public (via people who pay attention to prediction markets).

Why does secret(insider) knowledge exist? To the benefit of the organization that wants to keep the knowledge secret. Insider trading laws purpose is to keep Corp and gov orgs in power. They prevent the dissemination of true information (for private power). Prediction markets incentivize the dissemination of true information, a public good.

So because Quebec ancestors killed all the people who opposed the conquest of that land, it's okay for Quebec to secede? But because another set of Canadians didn't kill off all the natives that still claimed Alberta's land, they can't secede legally? Is that the logic?

What's great about this article is it's a falsifiable hypothesis. Is anyone keeping a list of companies in different sectors not firing due to AI? We can revisit this in 2 years and see how we did.

Solar panels on surface get ~70% less energy than in space once you factor in atmosphere absorption, day/night, weather, etc. Solar + battery on the surface is not economically viable versus nat gas generators (excluding externalities)

I see the programming was effective on you.

> along with everything else Musk has claimed in the past decade

* mass produced EVs * Neural links to brain * reusable rockets * more efficient tunnel digging

Dude has a pretty good record of taking stuff in R&D and making pretty real products and/or companies. Can you name someone better?

Have you calculated the CO2 output of Terran datacenters run on natural gas vs. space datacenters run on solar? The launch CO2 usage is one time, the datacenter energy is for the life of the equipment.

ad creative (also just 'creative' for short in an advertising context) has been around since the 1960's. It was used in web banner advertising at its inception in the 1990s. Tribes have their own lingo, and language changes all the time. Sorry you don't like what the marketing tribe did more than 50 years ago.

One reasoning flaw I've seen in this type of discussion is the assumption that the person has the same value system as you / the experts. In your example, it is assumed that the subject values a very long life. Maybe they don't, maybe they value smoking way more than a long life.

I largely agree with you, but I would tweak it to say "Humans are decent at doing what's best for them given their own values and knowledge".

vapor has been used for medicine delivery for a long time, especially for patients who can't swallow pills.

Also gov regulation is not the only form of regulation. Fear of getting sued by your customers into bankruptcy is an effective regulation on putting harmful substances into your vape.

I'm glad I'm not the only one that noticed the article felt AI generated.

Your comment implies that my post was my own opinion, where I was merely sharing what the USA position on Cuba has been.

If your definition of fascism includes the merger of corporate power with gov power, then the USA has met that definition for at least 30 years. So yes, I guess I've tolerated it in my backyard, as every American has.

In the 90s, the business model was bundle the news with classifieds (classifieds were the main profit source for print newspapers, inline ads only covered the cost of paper, ink and distribution). The web unbundled news and classifieds, and we have been without a working business model ever since.

can't have communists in the western hemisphere. They give up authoritarian communism, we will be magnanimous.

clearly you just need to have your agent review, summarize, and take appropriate actions on the docs being sent to you.

It's not that the $2B business isn't interesting, it's competing with GitHub would be a major undertaking and the opportunity cost of doing that is probably more than $2B.

someone has to pay for administrators!

I mostly stopped using Reddit in 2016, and was site banned in 2019 (for posting "gnews.com" in answer to the question of which site has the Biden laptop leak).

I didn't say "signal processing", I stated 'signal prediction machine'. This is not my idea, I would say my more source is the book On Intelligence, written by neuroscientists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Intelligence but this idea is hundreds of thousands of years old.

Prediction as intelligence is hardly a fringe topic https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13164-021-00538-5

Try to not be insulting when you post here, this is not reddit.

I cannot. Please explain the difference to me. Everything I've read about neuroscience is basically the brain is a signal prediction machine. The harness, signals and incentive (hormone) systems may be different, but predicting the future is basic building blocks of intelligence.

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.

do you really think the bombings and kidnappings are new as of 2024? You think what we have been doing in the middle east and Guantanamo bay since 2001 are moral?

legally and in practice, they cannot. Even considering the 4th amendment, in a time of war the military can commandeer a service as long as they are compensated.

Congress passing a changed law, and it holding up in court is how it's supposed to work. The people's reps (specifics interpreted by the courts) should be the ones that set the standard on as a country what type of weapons systems we want to deploy vs. what is immoral. Precedent is nerve agent weapons, landmines, etc.

Honestly, Anthropic's stance feels like an oligarch stance. We have better morals than the American people, we will decide what weapons systems the military will use or not use.

It's perfectly understandable if they don't want to sell weapons to the government. That is a noble thing. But Anthropic wanted that DoW money and wanted to determine what is moral vs. not

whenever I see headlines like this, I always think: great opportunity for someone to create transparent trusts then?

am I super biased or fully drank the Kool aid if I believe entrepreneurs are the solution to many of society's ills?

is the value the working outputs or the inputs? A prompt alone would not let you recreate this project.