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jk2323

285 karma · joined April 13, 2017

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jk2323··on Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production
Yes, of cause. The new China hubs (giant market, gov backed) are the reasons for the Downfall of HK and SG. (tiny market, geolocation not great).

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-19/ominous...

jk2323··on Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production
Most comments about the A380 here are US-centered.

1. The A380 can be upgraded and can be made more fuel efficient. But this is an investment Airbus would have to made.

2. The hub model is not dead. There are major hubs that are dying (Singapore and Hongkong), there are current major hubs UAE, Moscow (Asia<>EU), Istanbul and there are coming major hubs (Addis Abbeba (EU, Asia <>Afica), potentially Tehran (geostrategic location, cheap oil, huge inner market, if they open up). At least if I look at it from China.

Especially from huge markets with price sensitive customers like India and China, I predict that the A380 could have a future. I think the Airbus CEO once said "This plane come 10 years too early".

jk2323··on Life expectancy in America has declined for two years in a row
This is really bad news and reminds me of: https://www.amazon.com/After-Empire-Breakdown-Perspectives-C...

This guy predicted the downfall of the Soviet Union in his mid 20ies based on statistical indicators like life expectancy.

jk2323··on Bitcoin Is Evil (2013)
This reminds me of a quote it once read on a board. Someone claimed that his gold "became much much more". The other guy replied: "Lucky you. I checked mine. It did not become more at all, it is the same amount of gold that was there before. Only the dollar declined."
jk2323··on Bitcoin Is Evil (2013)
"This author is well known for incorrect predictions, and for not particularly caring about the truth of what he writes"

ROTFL. This really describes Krugman well. Of cause bitcoin is "evil" since it limits his ideas of how to "experiment" with money.

jk2323··on Power Prices Go Negative in Germany
Germany's energy policy is fucked:

https://icmvv6qxwpktq0do-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/...

Inverse Robin Hood. Take from the poor, give to the rich.

jk2323··on Power Prices Go Negative in Germany
Because it was not developed to the final stage?

Worst investment yet, was solar Energy.

PS: Fixed this for you. Sorry, did not know you are a bullshitter!

It started generating electricity on April 9, 1985, but did not receive permission from the atomic legal authorizing agency to feed electricity to the grid until November 16, 1985. It operated at full power in February 1987 and was shut down September 1, 1989.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THTR-300

jk2323··on Power Prices Go Negative in Germany
"Germany's energy policy is far from perfect, but probably one of the most future-proof in Europe (which costs money)."

Really? Germany has one of the LEAST future proof energy politics. I would like to see a country that actually has more than a 2 years energy plan and would invest in something meaningful, like Thorium reactors.

jk2323··on Power Prices Go Negative in Germany
Germany has

1) one of the highest prices per kWh for the normal consumer

2) prices are still increasing http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/service/strompreise-steigen...

3) produces more CO2 than France.

So what's the news?

jk2323··on Why hasn't economic progress lowered work hours more? (2016) [video]
"That’s exactly Marx’s point when he discusses his theory of Surplus Value."

Actually, no. This has nothing to do with Marx "surplus value". And his idea of "surplus value" was wrong by several reasons. The funny thing about Marx is that he failed to understand capitalism as much as good ol' Ludwig von Mises.

jk2323··on Show HN: Open Paperless – Scan, index, and archive paper documents
May I ask why? Installation is a bit cumbersome but it seems to be an outstanding program to me. I have been looking very long for something like this.

I have not tired yet how it reacts to huge amounts of data. But best thing: NOT written in Java!

jk2323··on Tiananmen Square 1989 death toll was at least 10,000 according to UK documents
"down 10,000 innocent lives"

I doubt this number. And let's not forget that they let them protesting for some time. An highly unusual event in China. Problems occurred when protests did not stop.

"threatens democracy and freedom worldwide." China is not totally undemocratic and I doubt that democracy is necessarily the best solution at all times and for all states.

"This psychopath will eventually cause harm to a few countries (Taiwan, South Korea)"

South Korea?

On the other hand I am sure the people in Syria, Libya and Iraq were happy about the US bombings. Remember "highway of death" in Iraq?

"when said and done, maybe enable North Korea to strike a few nuclear missiles into Los Angeles or Tokyo, who knows."

North Korea is a buffer sate for both, China and Russia. China has NO interest in a war in North Korea.

By the way, North Korea. The Soviet Union fought an existential war against Germany and lost 10% of their population. This war DEFINED the Soviet Union. In Europe the second world war was basically a Soviet-German war (9 out of 10 German soldiers that died, died on the Eastern Frontier).

This being said, this is NOTHING compared to the war that North Korea fought: https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/12/11/state-fear...

Yes, North Koreans are paranoid. They may have reasons to be.

jk2323··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
"This guy expects a market loss of about -65%"

Which is very possible. Or how did Mandelbrot say? "speculating on the stock market is riskier than you think"

The current highs are only possible because interest is so low and people leverage. A 2% return is no problem. Leverage times 3 and you have a decent 6%. But what happens, if interest rates rise and you get margin calls? Your have to sell. Wait, the others have to sell too....

"He also expects negative total returns over the next 12 years."

Past performances are no guarantee for future performances works both ways.

"Losing money in this market is a truly remarkable feat."

Not necessarily. Timing is tricky. The market can stay longer irrational as you can stay liquid.

jk2323··on The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
As I posted below:

Own words? Most of the blog posts are done by people much smarter than me. I could do a 1 or 2 hour PPT Presentation trying to get to the point. I think only a few people would be able to follow me. Not, because I am so tremendously smarter than them (I have a PhD), but because the topic is so tremendously complex and interlinked.

This being said. It does not hurt to read this blog posts and think about them. The conclusion would be: We are f...ed. I may have a very negative outlook into the future and I hope that I am wrong. But I am afraid we are running into mathematical limits. Quote from the last blog post (Galactic energy scale) "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes." Then again, if you understand how energy, debt, growth and our society are interlined, this is NOT good news. Stay on the level we have now? Impossible. Read the first blog post. We are running in circles.

jk2323··on The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
Read the second link.

Own words? Most of the blog posts are done by people much smarter than me. I could do a 1 or 2 hour PPT Presentation trying to get to the point. I think only a few people would be able to follow me. Not, because I am so tremendously smarter than them (I have a PhD), but because the topic is so tremendously complex and interlinked.

jk2323··on The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
"The simplest: No exhaustible has been depleted yet"

You are correct. In fact, they never will be depleted. Same with the oil. Most of the oil that is still in the ground will stay there.

"These forecasts are made possible by assuming the limit on the amount of oil extracted is the amount of oil in the ground. In fact, the limit is likely to be a financial (debt) limit that comes much sooner." https://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/01/13/why-eia-iea-and-rander...

Please also see: Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet https://www.amazon.com/Extracted-Mineral-Wealth-Plundering-P...

It is well possible we are beyond the peak already. This brings us to the "Seneca effect" http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2011/08/seneca-effect-or...

Otherwise: Business as usual.

jk2323··on The Limits to Growth (1972) [pdf]
Hey Dude, keep Bullshitting!

"There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat...

Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt...

Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-...

Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e...

jk2323··on Qwant, a European search engine that respects your privacy
Do they run their own crawling server or do they "repack" search request to google like DDG, Startpage or ixquick?

If they do it from scratch, kudos.

jk2323··on Once considered a boon to democracy, social media looks like its nemesis
In regards to social media and fake news, I am thinking more and more about a talk that Professor Peter Kruse gave three years ago about the tendency of such systems for hysteresis effects.

If you understand German you can watch it here (6 min). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSEEDB7ViyQ

("Und bist Du nicht willig, so brauch ich ....Geduld".. :-)

jk2323··on Do you need a VPN?
1. VPN Overview https://thatoneprivacysite.net/

2. oVPN.to is probably a good idea, as long as you are not based in China

3. Pay anonymously for the VPN. If it need to be really secure, only access VPN via TOR.

jk2323··on eBay launches visual search tools that let you shop using photos
Interesting point. But p/e so long, and they are never paying dividends, what is happening with that money?

I don't think of ebay highly, desides what they did to Craigslist.

They had Skype. They could have been Facebook, but no. They had Paypal. With Skype and paypal they could have easily made micropayments on cell phones, but no. I hardly ever see a company with so many wasted chances. They are in a "winner takes it all" niche but sooner or later someone (Open Bazaar?) will challenge them and I don't see any innovation from this company.

jk2323··on The Battle That Created Germany
Slightly OT. I am a big Fan of the hypothesis that Siegfried (the main character of a major old German story) is Armenius. E.G. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27701032?seq=1#page_scan_tab_co... (PDF is free)
jk2323··on Ask HN: Who is the target audience for ~$1000 software?
Linux OCR is priced like this. Unfortunately.

http://www.ocr4linux.com/en:pricing:start

This pricing is prohibitive expensive for most private users.

jk2323··on Secure Voice Calls: Now with Threema Work
Now you can also make secure voice calls with Threema, the secure chatting app.

[Disclaimer: I feel like I should make a little bit free advertisement for this chatting (and now phone) app, which originated from Switzerland. It has >3 MM installs in German speaking countries and I am a happy user. It has little recognition in the English speaking world. Unfortunately]

jk2323··on In 1973, I invented Baileys
My professor always said:

"ideas are like hemorrhoids, every asshole sooner or later gets some"

jk2323··on Microsoft gives up on Windows 10 Mobile
It is my understanding that MS has given up on ARM. Sooner or later there will be x86 based phones, which partly solves the "app" problem. They just run a regular windows on the phone.
jk2323··on Microsoft gives up on Windows 10 Mobile
Whatsapp? WeChat? Ueber? Ofo? Tinder?

I hardly use my phone for calls. In fact, I prefer Whatsapp or Wechat. And nope, I don't have netflix on my phone.

jk2323··on PureVPN Logs Helped FBI Net Alleged Cyberstalker
Obligatory:

https://thatoneprivacysite.net/vpn-comparison-chart/

I heard good things about https://vcp.ovpn.to/ but I doubt that I will work in China. But if you don't need a VPN in China I would go with ovpn.

jk2323··on The Last Invention of Man
"It's worked so far."

Yes it did. But remember Mutual Funds? "Past investment returns are no guarantee of....". You should either read "The Black Swan" or read it again.

Also: "The threshold necessary for small groups to conduct global warfare has finally been breached, and we are only starting to feel its effects. Over time, in as little as perhaps twenty years and as the leverage of technology increases, this threshold will finally reach its culmination -- with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win."

jk2323··on Navy Returns to Compasses and Pencils to Help Avoid Collisions at Sea
This also may have something to do with it: http://www.voltairenet.org/article185860.html

See also: http://www.npr.org/2016/02/22/467210492/u-s-navy-brings-back...

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