jefftk

This is fantastic! Do you have more videos of your foot-drumming? Or could you say more about how you do it? Are the pedals velocity-sensitive?

This is my setup: https://www.jefftk.com/p/making-a-pedalboard Four beaterless kick drum pedals. Another example in use https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcQLBfuaNqs

Not having tried it, I'd guess your setup is much more flexible, but requires much more work to provide a really steady beat on? And so would be a bit less well-suited to playing dance music (the main thing I do)?

That's a surprising claim: usually when I make this argument skeptics say that the knowledge barrier is so high that an LLM won't help enough!

I'd also be curious to hear what you think of the Aum Shinrikyo case, since that seems to me to be straightforwardly a failure of knowledge.

> The idea that all that's stopping some disaffected Joe sitting on his sofa at home and suddenly deciding to make a biological weapon is he can't get a set of instructions from ChatGPT is to miss the point.

I agree motivation is a huge barrier, in the sense that almost no one would do it. But to keep catastrophic bio attacks from happening as the knowledge barrier decreases it's not enough that most people wouldn't have the motivation. If 0.0001% of people have the motivation and 0.0001% have the means then we're probably ok, but if 0.0001% of people have the motivation and 0.1% have the means then we're not (0.0001% * 0.1% * population > 1).

It's not a matter of a one thing standing in the way of people making bioweapons: there's a long chain of actions one would need to complete, and many places for the chain to fail. Access to expertise can reduce the chance of failure at many of these steps, and AIs can increasingly substitute for human expertise: https://securebio.org/benchmarks/

> If you are motivated enough to assemble all the kit you'd need, and actually do it, then you should be motivated enough to find the knowledge to do it without chatgpt etc.

If someone was motivated enough to assemble the kit you need for anthrax and actually distribute it then you might expect them to also be motivated enough to find the knowledge to identify an appropriate strain, but in fact this is where Aum Shinrikyo failed in the 1990s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aum_Shinrikyo#Incidents_before...

Lack of knowledge is one of many factors that can lead to failure, and LLMs make it less of a barrier.

> biological weapons are a terrible tool to do what most people want to do - which is target specific enemies

Except:

1. There are also people out there who want to kill everyone. They're sufficiently rare that no one with the motive has also had the means, but as technological progress keeps lowering the bar the risk of motive and means intersecting increases.

2. This didn't stop the Soviets. They did an enormous amount of very dangerous research with minimal logical application.

That doesn't seem right. I use these models as research assistants when writing lots of random blog posts (including in economically ~useless areas like the history of contra dance) and Fable 5 is a serious improvement (when I don't get downgraded!) over Opus 4.6-4.8 which was a serious improvement over Opus 4.

For some kinds of risk (ex: walking people through on how to make infectious bioweapons) an open-weights approach would increase risk.

I believe in the US this error correction has been discontinued in the East and in Texas, but is still done in the West for some kind of non-clock "inadvertent interchange" reasons I don't understand.

I just searched and found free medium fries with a large soda at McD if you order through the app. Seems like bundling to me, and you have to use their particular app.

Anthropic is primarily limited by how fast they can identify and onboard people who will be a good fit. Allocating that to ios would trade off against allocating that staffing growth elsewhere (ex: reliability, making the next generation model even better).

Now maybe sometime soon AI replaces that too, but I think by that point we're talking about "automation of the majority of human intellectual labor" and are well beyond blogs in particular.

There's also no discussion of how blogging has always been somewhat frothy: picking the successful blogs (by any metric) and then checking back later is almost guaranteed to show a decrease. A fair comparison would show the top blogs now vs then, or even better the overall landscape (but that's a ton of work).

[1] 10B ten-digit numbers, less prohibited ones like area codes starting with 0 or 1, the 555 exchange, etc.

Given how hilly the course is, this makes sense: running an even pace the whole distance is not a good plan.

If a country thought the AI export restrictions were inconsistent with treaty the remedy is challenging them, not unilaterally imposing their own tariffs. But even if they got a favorable panel decision the US would speak, and the Appellate Body is non-functional because the US stopped consenting to the addition of new members and all the terms expired. Which means anything that gets appealed is frozen indefinitely waiting for the AB to reach a quorum that won't come until the US changes is mind (and Biden didn't reverse Trump's decision here).