jefftk

By the time you had your third, would the oldest still even be in a carseat?

But even then, three car seats is doable even in small cars: https://www.jefftk.com/p/three-car-seats

I predict they will not let it go, and it will escalate to escorting you off the plane. It's a violation of federal law to allow you to keep your child strapped in, and the attendant risks losing their job.

But I don't buy it: https://www.jefftk.com/p/three-car-seats

Rigid carriers are already permitted on planes, as long as they're FAA approved (which many are). You attach them with the seatbelt, and the flight attendants check.

What I'm proposing in this post is that the FAA not require parents to remove lab infants from babywearing carriers.

Human extinction, mass starvation, and terrible jobs are all outcomes I think we should try hard to avoid. But I do think I have them in the right order!

(The post is also not about something I'm working on.)

FYI, I don't think this is desirable. See the section of the post starting with "Is it a good thing? I think mostly no..."

Linux (GPLv2) seems like an obvious counterexample?

What worries me the most (enough that I left tech to work on this full time) is bio. The amount of effort needed to defend against a pathogen can be many orders of magnitude higher than the effort needed to create it, and the upstream bottlenecks are both less limiting and mostly undefended. We've been safe so far because bio is very hard, but "rare expertise" as a gatekeeper is on its way out.

Up until now you have been reading the words of Anthropic’s Claude, in particular Fable 5. In part, this is because I simply could not have written this piece. ... Although it might seem strange I thought it wrong to impose too much upon the machine, changing its voice to emulate mine. Richard Sutton’s bitter lesson would likely advise as much. Instead it has its unique voice, grating to some perhaps but altogether fitting that it should be able to keep it, and I only gave it advice on what considerations during writing would bridge the gap between its understanding and that of a reader.

But if you want to try it, checking out https://github.com/jeffkaufman/whistle-synth and asking Claude or Codex to add MIDI support would probably work!

A big difference is that Imitone works well with singing, whereas my algorithm only does a good job with whistling. On the other hand, my algorithm is lower latency when given a whistle as input.

A diesel sedan might use 1.25 gal for 100 ton-miles, while a tractor trailer might use a third of that (though, to be fair, I thought this would be a bigger delta before I looked).

But then if you look at "Equivalent Single Axle Loads", a tractor trailer is ~2 ESAL while a diesel sedan is ~0.0003 ESAL. So we're talking maybe 0.13 ESAL/gal for the former vs 0.0001 ESAL/gal for the latter.

Otherwise you are taxing diesel sedans and tractor trailers the same amount per gallon when a gallon to the latter does far more road damage.

>> Wrong

>It was my understanding—and I'm no expert, so if someone does know better please correct me!—that indeed by the second half of 2025 training, and also post-training reinforcement-learning stuff, both hit seriously diminishing returns, and the thing that is continuing to scale well or pretty well is inference.

I'm not an expert either, but while I do think for a bit it looked like ~all the improvement was inference-time scaling, it hasn't stayed that way. Mythos/Fable is likely a very large model (ex: it knows many things without searching) and this is probably part of its high level of capability, and the companies have started doing very large amounts of RL (which in OpenAI's case led to the HF attack).